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Huge Cloud Hangs Over Treasury Market

When there’s no Treasury supply and the Treasury actually puts cash back in the players’ pockets by paying down debt, adding that to the Fed’s money pumping into dealer trading accounts, you have the conditions for rallies. Since the schedules for both the Treasury supply and the Fed POMO are known in advance, it gives us an idea of what to expect in terms of cash flows into and out of the market. This week we knew that there would be plenty of cash, and not much supply, so we expected prices to rise. Stocks got the love but bonds didn’t. The reason is obvious.

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