Either 1) gold is headed down, or 2) this is table-pounding buy. 1.4% is peanuts to pay for the liquidity and lack of storage issues GTU represents.
I know CEF’s premium (currently 6.7%) was negative back in the early 2000s, as Thomas & others here have owned it from that time, so low/negative premiums do happen. GTU used to be low enough volume that you could move it around with buys & sells, but it’s liquid now.
If one drives by the rearview mirror, one can make a case that PMs are primed for a fall here. However, I do not see that scenario based on fundamentals. In fact, in trading accounts (not core) I am doing quite well, so far, with a simple ‘buy low, sell high’ approach, as suggested by Jim Sinclair, Steve Thomson, and John Hussman. Buy when your gut is screaming to sell, and vice versa. I don’t suggest this for any asset class other than gold (Sinclair suggests chart patterns looking like fishing poles and rhino horns). But gold’s price, which I think the evidence strongly suggests is manipulated to an extent, at least short-term, seems to be a different animal than other asset classes. Buying/selling off simply the RSI has worked quite well for at least a couple of years now.