Eight years ago, I set out and prepared a list of possible surprises for the coming year, taking a page out of the estimable Byron Wien’s playbook, who originally delivered his list while chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley, then Pequot Capital Management and now at Blackstone. (Here was Byron Wien’s surprise list for 2010.) Importantly, my surprises are not intended to be predictions but rather events that have a reasonable chance of occurring despite being at odds with the consensus.
I call these “possible improbable” events. In sports, betting my surprises would be called an “overlay,” a term commonly used when the odds on a proposition are in favor of the bettor rather than the house.
The real purpose of this endeavor is to consider positioning a portion of my portfolio in accordance with outlier events, with the potential for large payoffs.