What’s really on the Street’s mind right now is the VIX, which measures volatility on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), and is often referred to as the “fear index.” However, it’s not fear, but complacency, that has the Street spooked. Currently, the 15 level is being referred to as the “complacency” level, with the consensus being that this level is “low” and could point to general indifference among traders. However, if you look at VIX futures, there are massive bets on rising volatility over the coming months — which “doesn’t look so complacent” to Ryan.
Also, Ryan notes that for about three years during the ’03-’07 bull market, the VIX traded between 10 and 15. In that context, 15 was actually kind of high. Applying that trend to today, Ryan explained, a move below 15 from the VIX could actually provide a huge boost for the market