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Case Shiller Carnage Behind the Curve as Usual

Case Shiller is finally catching up to the carnage I have been reporting in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Housing Reports since last August, which is when the damage first became apparent in listings data. Case Shiller imputes multiple lags in its data which distort reality beyond recognition and grossly misrepresent current condtions. Listings data, which are real time, and new home prices which are behind real time by only a month told us as early as August that the market was collapsing. 4 months later Case Shiller finally catches up. Even so, the media only headlines the year over year number, not the collapse in the 3 month change in the Case Shiller data, which purportedly represents October.

In fact Case Shiller represents the median price as of deals closed in mid September on average, which represents deals made in mid July on average. What relevance do mid July prices have for today’s market conditions? Zip. Zilch. Nada. In the most recent 3 months, right up to the present, prices in most markets have dropped another 3% or more. Prices appear to be dropping at near 1% per month in some areas. I’ll report on that in the next Housing Report to be posted within the next day or two.

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Source: Bloomberg

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