One way of depicting the market’s 36 year cycle is with an 18 year rate of change. The chart below shows the Dow since 1929 in quarterly bars. While an 8 year rate of change has reached levels associated with earlier major secular bottoms, the 18 year rate of change still has a way to go. Similarly, the Dow’s long term trendline is only at 3600 now, rising to 4000 at the end of this year.
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