All of the talk lately on our message boards and blogs (See Lee Wheeler on the Mark) about Martin Armstrong’s 8.6 year cycle top being due Monday February 26 got me to thinking about super long term cycles. They are not something I normally give much thought to, because even if they do exist, and I suspect that they do, then Hurst’s Principal of Variation tells us that the time counts between tops or bottoms would be subject to variations of several years, not exactly pinpoint timing, and not of much use for those of us trading within normal time frames.
Nevertheless, I wondered if there was anything to the idea that a super long term cycle high might be due in the current time frame, defining super long term as any cycles longer than the 4 year cycle. Lo and behold, in analyzing the Dow back to the 1900s, I found something. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).
Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
Lee, to say the very least my interest in Martin Armstrong’s work was piqued after yesterday’s activity. But I can’t find anything?! I tried your link in your posting last week and got back a pnf. I googled PEI Cycle and pulled up some archaic junk and a couple more pnf’s. Any sources that the “jewels” haven’t shut off? Thanks, P (I’m a 62 yo investor in Indianapolis and really like listening to the podcast of WSE, which I just found last week through Krowne’s links.)
Sorry for the confusion. If you click the link to Lee Wheeler’s blog in the intro above, it will take you right to one of the 3 articles he wrote about Armstrong’s cycle. The links to the other two articles are in that article.
The link to my report is for WSE Pro subscribers only, as noted. I hope you will give it a try!
Out of curiosity, I just tested our Search function in the right sidebar about 2/3 of the way down. Searching the word Armstrong, it spit out the 3 articles as well.
I also tried Google. Using the search terms “PEI cycle”, or “Armstrong Cycle” Lee Wheeler’s articles pop up on the first screen. Actually, with “PEI cycle” Lee’s article comes up number one on the page.
We always like when that happens. 🙂
If you want to read more about Martin Armstrong, his book “The Greatest Bull Market in History” is published online. Cut and paste this link to your browser window.
http://web.archive.org/web/20000817012023/http://www.princetoneconomics.com/Research/GBM/GBM-MAST.HTM#1