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Leading Economic Noise

The Conference Board released the Leading Economic Indicators for October 2006 on November 20th.
Here are the highlights:

The U.S. leading index increased 0.2 percent
The coincident index increased 0.1 percent
The lagging index increased 0.2 percent

Here is a breakdown of weightings that make up the composite score:

Click on chart for a better view.
The two single biggest predictors of a recession are an inverted yield curve and declining housing permits but the table above shows that those two combined account for a mere 12.85% of the composite score while Money Supply (M2) single handedly accounts for a whopping 35.35% of the composite index.
Inquiring […]

By Michael Shedlock

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