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I have been publishing The Wall Street Examiner as a newsletter for active traders, investment advisors, and professional investors since 2000. Each day it’s my goal to cut through the Wall Street and government media spin to get you the facts you need to see the reality of current trends and the path of likely future trends.
You will not find this unique approach to ferreting out the real direction of trends anywhere else. It’s based on my 47 years of observing, charting, and analyzing market and economic data with one goal–to cut through all the noise and find the actual signal. It’s not that difficult if you understand how to read data. I’ll do that for you and present it in ways that you will be able to readily see for yourself, so that you can act with confidence in your investing and trading decisions.
By paying attention to real trends and their real drivers, I was able to call the top of the internet and tech bubbles in 2000, the bottom in gold in 2001, the bottom in stocks in 2003, and their top in 2007. I not only called the top of the housing bubble, as a long time professional real estate industry analyst, I accurately forecast the approximate timing of the top in 2005. I called the housing price bottom in 2012, and correctly reported that the second housing price bubble was not accompanied by a full housing industry recovery. I also called the bottom in long term bond yields in 2012, a bottom which, in spite of being threatened this year, has held.
I saw the potential for a stock market crash developing in 2008 and chronicled the events and trends that would lead to its development throughout that summer and fall of that year.
Through those 8 years, my reputation as a permabear was well earned, but my primary job is to find the facts and correctly identify the market trend, regardless of whether I think those facts are healthy or not, and will lead to a stable future, or not. That brings us to the post 2008 bull market.
For the benefit of my bearish subscribers I warned throughout the November 2008-April 2009 period that Federal Reserve money printing and market support was creating a new paradigm for stock investors, one in which the US stock market would be “The Last Ponzi Game Standing.” I was the first independent analyst to recognize that the Fed’s open market operations were directly moving stock prices, which I began reporting on weekly in 2002, years before any other publication picked up the scent, and a decade before this became a widely accepted notion in the mainstream. In fact, I was widely ridiculed for reporting on the direct correlation, and suggesting that it was causal, not coincidental. These concepts are now widely accepted in mainstream thinking.
After watching the beginning of the new market, central bank money printing paradigm throughout the November 2008- March 2009 period, I reported in April 2009 that these new central bank policies of injecting newly printed money directly into the markets were resulting in the onset of a new bull market in stocks. I also recognized and reported on the importance that similar actions by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan would play in driving stock and bond prices. Composite Macro Liquidity Indicators which I developed have accurately correlated with stock prices since the “new paradigm” central bank driven markets began in 2009. With the exception of briefly succumbing to a couple of downside head fakes over the past few years, I have remained steadfastly of the opinion that central bank market rigging works to drive stock prices higher, and have remained bullish as a result, with increasing cautioun in recent months.
It is my goal to provide this kind of leading edge observation and analysis every day as we go forward. As Professor Lawrence Berra cogently observed, “You can observe a lot by watching.” I’ve been watching closely and charting market data since 1968 when I first got involved with stock trading as a kid. I put my experience and years of observation to work for you in cutting through the noise, to bring you clarity on the trends of economic data and the markets. There’s nothing magical about it, just attention to detail, and the experience that comes with time spent immersed in the study of trends and cycles in market, as well as financial and economic data.
All of the above notwithstanding, I have not gotten everything right. I’ve had my share of misfires, but when things don’t go as expected, I’ve made a point of understanding why as quickly as possible, and applying that lesson to the future. The forces that drive markets and economic activity are always changing, and I won’t be able to foresee all of those changes, but I promise to pay attention as closely as possible so that I can report on them for you as early as it is possible to recognize that change is in the air. Contrary to popular belief market and economic trends move slowly. There are virtually always warning signs as the process gets under way and proceeds to fruition. If we pay attention, we’ll recognize those harbingers of change early enough to protect our assets and potentially profit from the changes. Early recognition of the changing forces that drive markets may be the most important part of my mission in your behalf.
That’s a summary of how I go about doing my job for you. You will receive reports of my thoughts and observations at 4 PM New York time on days when I have something new to report, which may not be every day, but should be several times each week. Each report will feature my latest free Wall Street Examiner Exclusive reports that help you to cut through the media spin and give you a clear picture of the real trends in the markets and the economy today.
I’ll also include links to the latest Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition reports in each e-letter. If you are an active trader, you will find information in these reports that you can use to increase your edge in market timing and boost your confidence in your own decision making, and perhaps even point to areas where you may need to take a second look. I will provide a place where you can get more information on these Pro reports or subscribe. You can do so with no risk, with a money back guarantee for the first 90 days of service.
Finally, as an added bonus each email will include links to clear thinking contributors whose analyses I have chosen to help you see through the miasma of media spin to give you greater clarity each day.
I thank you again for joining me in the search for clarity amidst the barrage of noisy news and investment “information” that bombards you every day. I look forward to serving you and to hearing from you in the days ahead.
Editor and Publisher