Tag Archive for Unemployment Claims

Initial Claims Improved over Last Year, But Weakening Momentum is a Yellow Flag

This post is an update excerpt of the permanent page of Employment Charts, which is updated regularly whenever new data is released. Bookmark that page for future reference. This week’s data on first time unemployment claims was slightly weaker, but not terrible.  The gross numbers are still a big improvement over last year, but the…

Just How Bad Is This Week’s Unemployment Claims Data? Not Bad At All

The mainstream media today reported an increase in initial jobless claims this week to 380,000, an increase of 13,000. This was another huge miss for the consensus of conomists, where the central tendency of expectations was for 359,000 initial claims. The conomic establishment continues to prove its worth week in and week out. The question…

Treasury Market Panic Reversal Due To Little Known Forces Called Supply and Demand

The Treasury market panic saw a bit of a reversal this week, partly due to an unexpected, large increase in supply because of a sharp drop in Federal tax revenues over the past couple of weeks, and partly due to the market misunderstanding of Thursday morning’s news. The “better than expected” weekly unemployment claims data…

Economists Surprised Again By Unemployment Claims, Should Not Have Been

The mainstream media proclaimed an unexpected “beat” of the first time unemployment claims number today. The fake, seasonally fudged number dropped to 358,000 in the week ended February 4. According to Bloomberg, the consensus of economists’ expectations was for 370,000. Aside from the fact that whether economists get a forecast right or not seems to…

Same Old Same Old

Having repeated essentially the same analysis and forecast for seemingly the past 10 days, I won’t bore subscribers with more of the same tonight, especially since it’s late and you have enough to digest with the housing report and the free reports on unemployment claims and retail sales. Cycle projections were down slightly in the…