Posts Tagged ‘ Treasury ’

Don’t look now but California’s stale extend and pretend Ponzi games may be coming to a head: delayed $2 billion GO sale, and delayed payments.The amount of new Treasury demand coming over the next month is simply put,  punishing . With the return of TBAC needs,  the Treasury closing in on $1/2 trillion of...
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Russ Winter and Lee Adler unspin the ConCon data, the Lying  Economic Indicators, the  Case Chiller, new house sales, and the revival of a dangerous Treasury borrowing program. Also we debate homebuilder economics, and Russ talks about the problem with inventories, and the FDIC. Not a subscriber? Click here to hear a free...
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The Treasury announced today that it would replenish its rainy day fund (SFP- Supplementary Financing Program at the Fed to the tune of $195 billion, bringing the total on deposit back to $200 billion, where it was before the great drawdown of last October. The Treasury will do that by selling $25 billion per...
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US Treasury is out with a report and illustrative charts on the key issue of times, debt traps. The first charts leads off with the interest paid against GDP. Since I believe GDP is in many respects bogus, I prefer to compare against tax revenues, which in 2009 were $2.1 trillion. What is important about this chart is that...
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The Treasury again sold less debt than forecast and next week’s calendar will also be lighter than forecast. This trend could last through the balance of January, and possibly into the first or second week of February based on the rate at which the Treasury has been depleting its cash. That cash will get...
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While I still don’t know exactly how the Treasury built up that enormous cash hoard, we may have gotten a clue today how it intends to use it. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that...
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The wild card is a huge cash hoard that the Treasury has built up, several times larger than is typical for this time of year. If the Treasury uses that cash hoard to reduce debt operations in the short run, that will prop the market. If they use it to increase spending, it will...
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Lee Adler talks about the initial unemployment claims fraud, the issue of Treasury supply and the Treasury’s cash hoard, and the keys to the market’s long term outlook. Not a subscriber? Click here to hear a free preview. Reposting or linking to this preview is permitted and encouraged. Spread the word! Or listen to a ...
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Month to date tax receipts are now in for the entire month of December. They’re down 7.7% from December 2008, which is exactly the same rate of decline as November’s. We know that the TBAC and Treasury officials were not anticipating that in their debt sales forecast for the first quarter. They had assumed...
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Huffington Post and Institutional Risk Analytics team up to provide a rating system of community banks with the idea of moving money out of the Gumnut TBTF rabble. Another illustration of how Gumnut support of TBTF shows up in spades in the credit default markets;  incredibly, the debt of Bankamerica trades on par with US...
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By Jorma (Stool Pigeons Wire) December 21, 2009 – The relentless lowering of the top tax rates and capital gains rates and the effective corporate tax rate has been causal of everything the critics of the status quo rail at. Not tangential, causal. This is the ideological divide that cannot be crossed. The free...
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The Treasury has not announced a CMB this week, which means that apparently the $40 billion in CMBs due to expire on Thursday will not be rolled over. Normally that would be bullish. . If the market doesn’t move up, that would be a huge red flag. There are other signs of a storm...
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The Fed did its first reverse repo this morning. When they said they would be small and just for practice, they weren’t kidding. They did a 1 day forward reverse repo for $180 million with Treasury collateral. That’s a joke. The Fed will pay 16 basis points. It is a tri-party repo, which means that...
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The Fed and Treasury have lots of balls in the air this week, and I guess we can watch in amazement as they continue their Great Wallenda  high wire act and dig themselves into a greater hole.  Today (Nov. 24) we have another two year T-note auction on tap totaling $44 billion, of which...
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$5 billion in bonds were called as of November 15, but we already accounted for that in our table. Furthermore, $5 billion in cash hitting the market is far from sufficient to explain this rally in both stocks and bonds. However, we do know that the Fed usually settles big chunks of their MBS...
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During weeks where there are no auctions of longer term paper, the government takes little action to suppress yields. That’s another reason why, when Treasury supply is light, stock prices tend to rise. When Treasury supply is heavy, they need to push yields lower. Their primary tool in doing that is by releasing worse...
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Lee Adler and Russ Winter discuss the problem in Japan that could bring down world markets, the problem with Treasury borrowing, and the outlook for stocks. Not a subscriber? Click here to hear a free excerpt. To subscribe and hear this podcast right now, click here! Subscribers, click player to start.
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The Treasury finished up a light week with a 4 week bill auction that drew another wave of panic buying keep the rate near zero. There’s no real sign of a letup to the mania, as terrified investors continue to seek the “safety” of the shortest term Treasuries. Panic behavior of this nature...
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The Fed’s balance sheet made a giant sucking sound this week as the Fed added little in the way of new securities holdings and alphabet soup programs continued to contract. This week that contraction was huge. The Fed’s shrinking balance sheet was mimicked by the stock market, as Ben’s Pawn and Loan put the...
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The Treasury completed the withdrawal of $185 billion from its rainy day Supplementary Financing Program (SFP) account at the Fed this week with a massive cash management bill paydown. Total paydowns of $55 billion settling on Thursday were enough to send short term bill rates down to near absolute zero as we had expected....
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The Treasury’s cash management bill paydowns are due to end this week. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that...
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Fed credit declined last week, as a big drop in TAF offset the Fed’s buying of GSEs and Treasuries. The Fed did not settle any MBS purchases, and in fact got rid of a small amount of their MBS holdings, probably to help cover the Treasury’s withdrawal of $35 billion from its “rainy day”...
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We now have an inkling of how the Treasury will handle the paydown of $185 billion in Treasury CMBs. It will turn what would have been a horrendously bearish period into something less so, but the respite will be temporary. At the very least, it should give the smart money the opportunity to tiptoe...
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Lee Adler, Aaron Krowne, and Russ Winter discuss the barbell trade, and why it will lead to no good end.  Lee Adler discusses how Fed and Treasury actions are likely to impact the market. The unemployment data isn’t as bad as it sounds. It’s worse. Not a subscriber? Click here to hear a free preview. Listen...
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$20 billion in Treasury paydowns and $1.8 billion in Fed purchases of Treasuries on Wednesday will all settle tomorrow. $22 billion sloshing around will go a long way toward sending short term rates to zero and boosting the speculative mania for stocks. That euphoria could abruptly shift tomorrow… Click here to...
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Monthly tax receipts for August are out and the comparisons are ugly. Meanwhile, Treasury paydowns this week mean that there’s $20 billion floating around with no place to go in this little game of musical chairs. A few billion here and there to pump into stocks goes a long way, as we...
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The mortgage applications data released on Tuesday continues to cast doubt on the NARs data showing a recovery or stabilization in the housing market. I don’t question their data, but the MBAAs data and Zillow’s data do not support it. See http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2009/09/01/more-little-lies-and-big-spin-gains-or-blips The Treasury completed 3 bill auctions this week with buying at panic levels,...
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In Monday’s news, the Treasury announced that it would sell a 303 day CMB this week, bringing new paper to be added this week from an expected zero, up to $23 billion. The bond market rolled merrily along anyway, as it got some help from selling in stocks. The Fed was quiet today....
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