A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Treasury Market ’
Market’s Liquidity Indicators Begin To Tilt Bearish – With Free Excerpt
The composite liquidity indicator downticked last week on small declines in most of its components. We know that the downtick in the Fed’s pumping to Primary Dealers is temporary, but the weakening in other indicators may not be. Over the course of this latest surge, most of the cash has been targeted at the...
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Market Liquidity Trend Still Bullish, But Only Treasuries Get The Benefit
The composite liquidity indicator rose slightly last week, on slight increases on most of its components. The uptrend in the indicator has continued at a steady pace since it broke out in March. Over the course of this latest surge, most of the cash has been targeted at the Treasury market, with stocks getting...
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The Last Ponzi Game Standing
Lee Adler argues that the idea that US economic growth and European economic crisis proves that austerity is a bad thing is false. The US only looks good in comparison, because capital is flowing out of Europe to the last Ponzi game standing, the US Treasury market. The US Treasury magically and instantly converts...
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Liquidity Tide Continues To Rise As Fed Falls Behind The Inflation Curve
This is an extended free excerpt from the Professional Edition Fed Report. The composite liquidity indicator rose slightly last week, on a mixed performance of its components. The uptrend in the indicator has continued at a steady pace since it broke out in March. Over the course of this latest surge, most of the...
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Is The Liquidity Tide Coming In or Going Out For Stocks?
This is an extended excerpt from the Professional Edition Fed Report Executive Summary. Note: Pages 4-10 comments correctly updated at 3:55 PM NY time. The composite liquidity indicator rose sharply last week, driven by a big Fed settlement of MBS purchases. The uptrend in the indicator is accelerating. Over the course of this latest...
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AdlerConobot Takes On Conomists’ Consensual Sexpectations
Job one for the US Treasury and its Primary Dealer enforcers is to keep yields low during weeks when the Treasury has a big load of notes and bonds to sell. Next week is one of those weeks, so the casino owners and managers will do what they can to gin up reasons for...
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Primary Dealers and Their Biggest Client Off The Hook For Now, What Next?
The composite liquidity indicator edged higher last week, continuing a slow but steady uptrend. In February and March, the indicator had accelerated upward away from its 39 week moving average. That acceleration has slowed, but the indicator continues to advance. With somewhat less abundant liquidity, the government and Primary Dealers have targeted that liquidity...
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Liquidity Composite At Record High
The composite liquidity indicator was virtually flat last week, for a second week, on a mixed performance in its components. In February and March, the indicator had accelerated upward away from its 39 week moving average, but it has stalled over the last 4 weeks. With less abundant liquidity, the government and Primary Dealers...
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Stigma, Who’da thunk
“You can make a firewall as high as you want and it will be no help” -Wolfgang Schäuble, new Eurogroup head, and German Finance Minister It was fun while it lasted but the bloom off the LTRO is now turning into, drum roll please, a liability. Funny how accounting that recognizes this concept works in...
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As Good As It Gets No More, Treasuries Puke
Treasury supply was in line with the TBAC forecast in the week just completed, but there are signs in weak tax withholding that suggest possible surprise increases in supply that the market could ill afford at the moment. The Fed met a big Treasury issuance on March 15 with a big settlement of the...
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Europe’s Pain Is US’s Gain
The cash generated by the ECB’s second big LTRO operation began to find its level throughout the world financial system last week, but it will take another week for the various measurements of those levels to show up in the lagging data, and several more weeks or months for the full effects to be...
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It’s That Time of The Month, Employment Data Leads To Investment Mood Syndrome
Every month the gummit’s Bureau of Liar Statistics (BLS) dutifully reports reams and reams of data on the employment situation in the US. Some of it is actually useful. The rest is reported by the mainstream financial news media. The BLS reports both seasonally adjusted (SA) data and not seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. The...
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Conditions As Good As They Get, What Comes After for Treasuries and Stocks?
The following is the executive summary of the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Housing Update. The complete report with illustrative charts and analysis is available to subscribers here. The report is also available via 30 day risk free trial. Click here for information. This is as good as it gets for the Treasury market....
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Peak Treasury Love
Primary Dealers, banks, foreign central banks, and fund investors are having a sex orgy.
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Treasury Market Panic Reversal Due To Little Known Forces Called Supply and Demand
The Treasury market panic saw a bit of a reversal this week, partly due to an unexpected, large increase in supply because of a sharp drop in Federal tax revenues over the past couple of weeks, and partly due to the market misunderstanding of Thursday morning’s news. The “better than expected” weekly unemployment claims...
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Treasury Market About Face- Just a Blip or Sign of Things To Come?
I mentioned in my last free report that the bulge in withholding tax collections which may have been a tipoff to the better than expected payrolls data, had subsided. I took another look at the data today, and there’s been no rebound since I posted that report. On top of that, yesterday the Treasury...
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Bulls In Clover While TBAC Is Smoking Dope As Usual
The Treasury market panic continued this week, with yields heading for new lows, thanks partly to a return of central banks to the table at a modest level, but mostly due to a ratcheting up of public buying. Bond fund inflows hit a record last week. It’s sheer panic. Bedlam. The panic atmosphere has...
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Hints of Sea Change In Treasury Market
Treasury yields fell to a key resistance level, and then rebounded sharply to break a 6 month downtrend line this week. It’s too early to call a turn, but the fact that it happened during a week when Treasury supply was non-existent—actually there was a paydown—and when foreign central banks showed up and actually...
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European Panic Sweeps 700 Pound Gorilla Under The Rug
The Treasury rally got some help this week from a surge in Federal Withholding Tax collections that is helping to keep new supply down. Whereas new supply had been exceeding TBAC estimates for the past couple of months, it has come back in line with estimates, and could be reduced even further in the...
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The Last Ponzi Game
This is an extended excerpt from the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury Report, a companion report to the Fed Report to be posted later this weekend. Subscriber link to the complete report is at the end of the excerpt. A heavy Treasury auction schedule with a big settlement on Thursday was enough to...
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Minyanville Interview With Lee Adler: What to Expect From Treasuries, Central Banks, Politics in 2012
What’s the big story for 2012?
I think that finally this’ll be the year that Treasury yields begin to rise. A lot of people, a lot of smart people have been bears on Treasuries and have been wrong about it. The technical work that I do has said ...
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Unreported Bedlam In Treasuries Signals Massive Panic
The following is an extended excerpt from the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition weekly Treasury update. The subscriber link to the full report is at the end of this summary. Last week was a light auction week with a net of just $3 billion in new supply settling on Thursday. That took the pressure...
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Does Treasury Market Turkey for Bulls Mean Stock Market Turkey for Bears?
Foreign central bank (FCB) buying of Treasuries was again heavy this week, two weeks after hitting a record level. Their buying binge of recent weeks pumped plenty of cash into US markets. That normally leads to a stock market rally, but not this time. Meanwhile, there’s evidence that withholding tax collections are weakening versus...
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Foreign Central Banks Have Left the Building
Tracking foreign central bank (FCB) holdings of US Treasury and Agency (Fannie, Freddie, and minor government agencies) paper has been one of the most important lines of inquiry in my analysis of market liquidity for the past 9 years. This information is available virtually in real time each week in the Fed’s weekly H41...
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The Treasury Market Will Collapse
Unless foreign central banks step back up to the plate, either the Treasury market will collapse, or the stock market rally will fizzle, or both.
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The Real Meaning Of Twistness
The composite liquidity indicator declined in the week ended October 12 for the third consecutive week, slightly penetrating the 39 week moving average. The growth rate has slowed dramatically versus 2010, while the supply of paper absorbing liquidity, in particular Treasuries, has continued to soar. In recent weeks, the weakness has only been expressed...
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Threads In A Foreboding Tapestry
Two weeks ago I began to report to subscribers of the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Fed Report that foreign central banks (FCBs) had begun to engage in unprecedented levels of disgorgement of their massive holdings of US Treasury and Agency paper. Prior to this year, the FCBs had typically absorbed the equivalent of...
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Happy Columbus Day Treasury Market
Foreign central bank dumping of Treasuries and Agencies continued this week, although not at the frenetic pace of the past two weeks. This activity may be beginning to take a toll on the Treasury market, where yields are showing signs of possibly having bottomed. Treasury supply was light with no net new supply settling...
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