A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Next week’s Treasury calendar is light, with another paydown on Thursday and plenty of POMO, so if ever stocks had an excuse to rally, this would be it. The Federal Government would probably be happy to see stocks rally at the expense of a selloff in Treasuries since the government is not selling notes...
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And soon it will end. Then what? The Treasury calendar was heavy this week, with 3 and 10 year notes and 30 year bonds auctioned in addition to the weekly bill auctions. It got even heavier when the Treasury announced a surprise $15 billion cash management bill to tide the government over until June...
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A big Treasury calendar combined with a 2 day POMO vacation may have triggered the little spill in the stock market on Thursday, as Primary Dealers and other major Treasury investors were forced to line up cash for next Tuesday’s big Treasury settlement. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition...
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Ben is running the basement printing press 24-7. New York Fed purchases $3.890 billion in Treasury coupons- That makes it over $11 billion in "good buys" this week. And you wonder why the market is rallying. That's almost double the $6 billion a week ...
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The Treasury calendar for next week will be light with only bills offered. New supply will total an estimated $8 billion if the 4 week bill is the same size as last week. This would be a $5 billion overshoot of the TBAC estimate presented just 4 weeks ago. That along with the need...
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The net aggregate differential between buy and sell side indications dropped from -1255 to -1616, which is in the normal short term bottoming range. This downturn from a lower high was the type that usually precedes at least a short term downturn in the market averages and so far this has gone according to...
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The Treasury calendar for this week ballooned with the announcement of $20 billion in 4 week bills and $35 billion in CMBs which was not on the tentative schedule or in the TBAC forecast. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty...
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The market had a problem Monday. While the Primary Dealers and other institutions celebrated the end of the Depression last week, they apparently forgot that they had to pay for $47 billion in new Treasury notes and bonds settling on Monday. Then again, perhaps they were looking forward to the expectation of a lighter...
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The Treasury settled $72 billion in new supply on Monday. Normally we don’t see that much pressure on the market on the day of settlement. It usually happens a day or two earlier. The Treasury calendar this week is a little lighter, with only $11 billion of new supply, including two CMBs announced today....
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The tidal wave of Treasury supply overwhelmed the stock market this week. It should never come as a surprise when this happens because the Treasury calendar isn’t exactly a secret. We are well aware that whenever the Treasury starts pounding the market with $50 billion a week or more in new paper, something must...
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The market got crushed by a huge wave of Treasury supply this week. No surprise there. We hypothesized just that last week based on the Treasury calendar. Early in the week I was beginning to doubt the hypothesis, but by Friday it became clear that the law of supply and demand is still the...
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The Treasury calendar will be enormous next week, including the usual 4, 13, and 26 week bills plus 3 and 10 year notes and a 10 year TIPS issue. We won’t know the total amounts until the 4 week bills and the notes are announced on Monday. The Treasury also faces expirations of a...
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