I’m struggling to find a different way to say the same thing again… Ah, the hell with it. The 10-12 month cycle projection is...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Treasuries ’
Treasury Market Panic Reversal Due To Little Known Forces Called Supply and Demand
The Treasury market panic saw a bit of a reversal this week, partly due to an unexpected, large increase in supply because of a sharp drop in Federal tax revenues over the past couple of weeks, and partly due to the market misunderstanding of Thursday morning’s news. The “better than expected” weekly unemployment claims...
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Market Fueled By Huge Rumored ECB Print Job And Corporate Fortress BS
Liquidity indicators backed off slightly from their recent strength last week, but overall they remain firm. I see no reason to expect either a big selloff or a big move higher in either stock or bond prices. The rangebound behavior of the markets shouldn’t change, except for one thing. The rumors are that the...
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The Mighty Ben
Treasury yields reached the top of the recent range and appeared headed for a breakout when along came Ben, with his mighty arms outstretched he lifts up the playing field and tilts it, and back down yields went, in spite of the big week of Treasury auctions and the market facing a big wad...
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Fed Transparent Only If The “Facts” Are Bullish
Liquidity indications have remained neutral over the two weeks since I last updated this report. Panic outflows from Europe boosting theUSsystem seem to have taken a breather, or been covered up, in the wake of the massive ECB liquidity operation just before Christmas. However, other indicators which had been bearish such as bank purchases...
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The Coming Privatization Scam
All the discourse about deregulation or regulation is a diversion from the real fact that the vehicles to steal keep being put into place. The criminal oligarchs are going to set the stage through the back door while everybody is talking about Dodd-Frank, consumer regulatory side shows, etc. Since the big banks were not busted up, these side...
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A 10-year low of new municipal bond issuance
Volume Lowest in 10 Years
Munis Ended 2011 At $295 Billion
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
By Taylor Riggs
A 10-year low of new municipal bond issuance is what was on everyone’s mind in 2011.
Last year, only $295 billion of bonds were issued, down almost...
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Foreign central banks cut US treasuries
Last updated:December 30, 2011 7:20 pm
Foreign central banks cut US treasuries
By Michael Mackenzie in New York
Holdings of US Treasuries by foreign central banks has fallen by a record amount over the past four weeks according to the latest Federal ...
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Treasuries fly,bulls cry
I guess 1.9% TNX yield looks better than losing 50% or more of your portfolio when reality sets in.
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Twisted Tuesday – Treasuries are not an Option
Twisted Tuesday - Treasuries are not an Option Courtesy of Phil of Phil's Stock World Remember Operation Twist? Last week, Freddie Mac reported record lows on rates, with the 30-year notes at 3.91%. This has not, of course, encouraged many people to go out and buy homes but it has...
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Not Too Bearish, Not Too Bullish, But Certainly Not Just Right
The mad panic into Treasuries suddenly stopped this week. 1.80 on the 10 year yield looks like a floor. The question now is whether there’s enough follow through selling to break the major downtrend line which is now around 2.03. Wouldn’t it be ironic if this week’s massive ECB Long Term Refinancing Operation was...
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Fed Finally Settles First Round Of MBS Offsetting Other Negatives in Liquidity
Liquidity indications were neutral this week, thanks to ongoing panic inflows of cash from Europe, as well as the fact that the Fed finally started settling the MBS purchase commitments that have been building up, but had gone unsettled since October. These positive flows offset the negatives of bank and FCB selling of Treasuries....
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The Last Ponzi Game
This is an extended excerpt from the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury Report, a companion report to the Fed Report to be posted later this weekend. Subscriber link to the complete report is at the end of the excerpt. A heavy Treasury auction schedule with a big settlement on Thursday was enough to...
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Minyanville Interview With Lee Adler: What to Expect From Treasuries, Central Banks, Politics in 2012
What’s the big story for 2012?
I think that finally this’ll be the year that Treasury yields begin to rise. A lot of people, a lot of smart people have been bears on Treasuries and have been wrong about it. The technical work that I do has said ...
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Liquidity Stagnant as Fed Sits on Hands, US Market Health Dependent On European Bank Diarrhea
Liquidity indications were mixed last week, with the Fed still not doing much while foreign central banks were net sellers (see Treasury update). Commercial banks started dumping Treasuries again, but their non-Treasury/non-GSE trading accounts did uptick against a bearish trend. The big plus was again bank inflows which surged massively. Meanwhile the FOMC statement...
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U.S. Growth Decoupling From Bonds Means Lower Yields to JPMorgan
Bloomberg
U.S. Growth Decoupling From Bonds Means Lower Yields to JPMorgan
December 11, 2011, 7:26 PM EST
By Daniel Kruger and Liz Capo McCormick
Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The strengthening U.S. economy is proving no deterrent to the biggest rally in ...
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Unreported Bedlam In Treasuries Signals Massive Panic
The following is an extended excerpt from the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition weekly Treasury update. The subscriber link to the full report is at the end of this summary. Last week was a light auction week with a net of just $3 billion in new supply settling on Thursday. That took the pressure...
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Frying Pan into the Fire
The latest central banks can save the world rally was astonishing. All I can say is if, and when it fails, perhaps once and for all this crackpot approach to speculation can go into the dust bin. Right now it seems to transcend everything including actual solvency. As I’ve said, this rally doesn’t have many...
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You Can Have One or The Other But Not Both
Liquidity indications were mixed this week, with the Fed still not doing much while foreign central banks were net sellers (see Treasury update). Commercial banks at least stopped dumping Treasuries but they are liquidating their trading accounts. The big plus was again bank inflows although they were not at the panic levels seen last...
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TEOTWAKI Can Not Be Ruled Out
Withholding tax data suggests that we may soon see weaker economic data. That would argue for lower yields and lower stock prices. Meanwhile, foreign central banks (FCBs) sold Treasuries last week, turning away from the record accumulation of recent weeks. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers) including 19...
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German Bund Auction Fails
German government bonds dropped after the nation missed its maximum sales target at a bund auction by 35 percent, sending the euro lower and 10-year yields higher than comparable U.S. Treasuries.
“This auction is nothing short of a disaster for Germ...
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Does Treasury Market Turkey for Bulls Mean Stock Market Turkey for Bears?
Foreign central bank (FCB) buying of Treasuries was again heavy this week, two weeks after hitting a record level. Their buying binge of recent weeks pumped plenty of cash into US markets. That normally leads to a stock market rally, but not this time. Meanwhile, there’s evidence that withholding tax collections are weakening versus...
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Market Liquidity Flat With Hints of Weakening Ahead
The composite liquidity indicator fell sharply last week. There was some distortion to the indicator the previous week when the Fed’s SOMA fell due to transactions outside dealer channels, but that was reversed in the latest data. Bank inflows were flat. FCB buying dropped back sharply from a record rise. Bank non-Treasury trading accounts...
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MF Global’s Customer Assets – STOLEN – And Nothing You Hold In This System Is Safe
This is why I removed all my assets from the "financial markets" nearly three years ago. Ok, I was a tad early, so sue me.
MF Global's Customer Assets - STOLEN - And Nothing You Hold In This System Is Safe
This is a scandal of the first order, and ...
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Hit With Big Withdrawals, Fed Sells Assets, Borrows Cash
The Fed was hit with withdrawals of $83.3 billion last Wednesday, the largest withdrawals from its deposit accounts that were not associated with quarterly tax payments since February of 2009. $7 billion of that was the net cash transferred to the US Treasury from its note and bond sales less outlays. The Fed still...
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Foreign Central Banks Have Left the Building
Tracking foreign central bank (FCB) holdings of US Treasury and Agency (Fannie, Freddie, and minor government agencies) paper has been one of the most important lines of inquiry in my analysis of market liquidity for the past 9 years. This information is available virtually in real time each week in the Fed’s weekly H41...
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The Real Cause Of the Rally, Why The Banks Can’t Buy Treasuries, and Shadow Inventory Big Problem But Not For Housing
The Wall Street Examiner’s Lee Adler Lee Adler tells the real reason for this rally, and expounds on why the banks can’t buy Treasuries. Aaron Krowne of ML-Implode.com and Lee discuss the latest attempt to boost the housing market, and zero in on the shadow inventory problem, which may be less of a problem...
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4 Signs To Look For In Treasuries, The Dollar, and Federal Tax Collections, and FCBs
Stocks rallied and Treasuries held their own in the past week as the market faced no pressure from new Treasury supply, and foreign central banks (FCBs) took a break from their recent pattern of dumping their Treasury holdings. This report tells what to look for next week that will tell us what the future...
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