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Posts Tagged ‘ Tbac ’
Treasury Market About Face- Just a Blip or Sign of Things To Come?
I mentioned in my last free report that the bulge in withholding tax collections which may have been a tipoff to the better than expected payrolls data, had subsided. I took another look at the data today, and there’s been no rebound since I posted that report. On top of that, yesterday the Treasury...
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Bulls In Clover While TBAC Is Smoking Dope As Usual
The Treasury market panic continued this week, with yields heading for new lows, thanks partly to a return of central banks to the table at a modest level, but mostly due to a ratcheting up of public buying. Bond fund inflows hit a record last week. It’s sheer panic. Bedlam. The panic atmosphere has...
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US Treasury Issues Cautiously Bullish Outlook For TBAC
WASHINGTON - The recovery continued to firm in the The recovery continued to firm in the final quarter of last year, and labor market conditions improved. According to the advance GDP report released last week, the economy grew by 2.8 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter, the tenth straight quarter of...
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The Last Ponzi Game
This is an extended excerpt from the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury Report, a companion report to the Fed Report to be posted later this weekend. Subscriber link to the complete report is at the end of the excerpt. A heavy Treasury auction schedule with a big settlement on Thursday was enough to...
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TBAC Sees Slightly Reduced Financing Rest of Q4
TBAC sees slightly reduced financing needs for remainder of Q4. I call bullshit. More in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury update tomorrow.
You are subscribed to All Treasury Press Releases for U.S. Department of the Treasury. T...
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Bloody September
The following paragraphs are free excerpts from today’s Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury update. The subscriber link to the complete report is below. As I estimated last week, the Treasury needed more cash than originally scheduled, or originally forecast by the TBAC. It announced a big cash management bill on Monday, and another...
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More Bad News From the Treasury
The Treasury market buying panic continued this week with technical signs pointing to a 10 year yield possibly as low as 1.80, or even 1.60. That would be bad news for stocks. While the indirect bid remains about 25% below last year’s level at the Treasury auctions, foreign central banks have increased their buying...
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4 Week Bill Jumps to $35 Billion
The Treasury announced today that its 4 week bill will be $35 billion instead of $23 billion as forecast just last week by the TBAC. That’s $12 billion of the extra cash I was expecting the Treasury to need to pay its bills this week. It reduces the scheduled paydown (cash back to bill...
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Government Heads For Budget Collapse
The US Treasury, running short of cash, announced a $15 billion, 6 day cash management bill to carry it through to June 15 tax collections and settlement of new notes and bonds. The government is massively overshooting Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) borrowing estimates issued in May. As I pointed out in the Treasury...
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Optimistic TBAC Gets It Wrong
The market had a big pile of new paper to settle last Monday, but then had plenty of POMO through the week and $18 billion in Treasury paydowns on Thursday. That should have been enough to send the markets higher. It was not. Treasuries did get a big boost but a little matter of...
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Treasury Gives TBAC, “On the one hand, on the other hand,” Gobbledygook
The TBAC (Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee), consisting of representatives of the Primary Dealers, gives a quarterly report to the Treasury in which it discusses the economy and gives the Treasury an estimated schedule of the Treasury’s borrowing needs for the current and following calendar quarters. The Treasury first gives the TBAC an economic statement...
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Fed, Treasury Inject More Cash
Hoping to insure a positive audience response for Wednesday’s FOMC Circus act, the Fed injected $7.24 billion into the market on Monday, while the Treasury announced that it will reduce the size of Tuesday’s 4 week bill auction to $30 billion, from $34 billion last week and $40 billion estimated by the TBAC. As...
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Bernanke’s Narcissistic Swill- Professional Edition
The Treasury began to pay off the weekly $25 billion in SFP CMBs this week resulting in a net paydown of $12 billion at Thursday’s bill settlements. That was a bullish influence on stocks as expected, but indirect bid data suggests that the FCBs weren’t all that aggressive in their bidding at the regular...
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TBAC Forecasts $95 Billion Q1 Increase in Net New Borrowing
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) told the Treasury that it will need to borrow $95 billion more in the first quarter than had been estimated in the last TBAC report in early November. The increase is apparently due to the cut in payroll taxes, although the committee gave no specific reason for the...
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Why Bernanke’s Gambit May Be Checkmated- Professional Edition EXPANDED PREVIEW
SPECIAL EXPANDED PREVIEW and free Radio Free Wall Street podcast. The Fed completed the first full week of its pumping campaign under QE2 this week with the purchase of $31 billion in Treasury notes, bonds, and TIPS. The total schedule for the first month calls for purchases of $105 billion. The initial round of...
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If You Thought You Smelled a Bull Movement, Just Wait – Professional Edition
The TBAC cut the amount of expected Treasury supply for the balance of the fourth quarter in recognition of the improvement in revenues that has already occurred and is likely to continue for the balance of the quarter. We began to note this improvement based on our daily tracking of Federal tax receipts soon...
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Supply Much More Than Thought- Professional Edition
The Treasury calendar for next week will be light with only bills offered. New supply will total an estimated $8 billion if the 4 week bill is the same size as last week. This would be a $5 billion overshoot of the TBAC estimate presented just 4 weeks ago. That along with the need...
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Russ Winter’s Actionable Read ?em and Weep
Don’t look now but California’s stale extend and pretend Ponzi games may be coming to a head: delayed $2 billion GO sale, and delayed payments.
The amount of new Treasury demand coming over the next month is simply put, punishing . With the return of TBAC needs, the Treasury closing in on $1/2...
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Score One For US! Professional Edition
The Treasury issued its refunding statement on Monday, followed by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee quarterly report on Tuesday. The statement recognized the reduction in first quarter offerings by $86 billion to $392 billion. This was essentially a recognition of the January reduction that resulted from the Treasury’s excess cash holdings at the end...
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Supply Issue Set To Return- Professional Edition
The regular 4 week bill announced today will total $17 billion, which is more than the $10 billion sold each of the last 3 weeks, but still less than the $24 billion that had been estimated by the TBAC. Does the size of the 4 week bill signal the end of the reduced Treasury...
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Tax Receipts Down Means Treasury Supply Up – Professional Edition
Month to date tax receipts are now in for the entire month of December. They’re down 7.7% from December 2008, which is exactly the same rate of decline as November’s. We know that the TBAC and Treasury officials were not anticipating that in their debt sales forecast for the first quarter. They had assumed...
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TBAC Report – Don’t Worry Be Happy
In the Professional Edition Fed reports posted 3-4 times weekly, I make use of the quarterly estimates of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the Treasury’s weekly borrowing needs to see how the experts did versus the subsequent reality, mainly to judge if they seem to have a handle on the situation or not....
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Panic Now, Avoid the Rush
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) released its quarterly advice to the Treasury yesterday. This is public domain stuff, and since I haven’t heard much mention of it in the mainstream media, I am reposting it here in its entirety. This is an unfolding horror story. This report paints a picture of the financial...
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Fed Report
There were no Treasury auctions today. The Treasury announced next week’s 13 and 26 week bill auctions today, a day earlier than usual due to the holiday. Both will be for $28 billion. Both are $1 billion more than the TBAC estimate made on October 31. Both are $1 billion more than the amounts...
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