A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Tax Receipts ’
Tide About To Go Out On The Sea of Cash
Extended free summary excerpt The massive $50 billion Treasury bill paydown that the dealers and other holders received on April 16, augmented by a much more modest $3 billion paydown last week was enough to keep the markets floating upward on a sea of cash. But the tide is about to go out. Monday,...
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Treasury and Primary Dealers Shake The Stock Market Tree When Needed
The markets get a gift in the coming week. Depending on how strong tax receipts are, the Treasury will pay down as much as $48 billion in expiring short term bills on Thursday. That’s cash that will come back to holders of the paper. They’ll have to put it somewhere. This is a normal...
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A Week on (Relatively) Easy Street for Treasuries
The following is the executive summary of this week’s report to subscribers.To read the reports risk free for 30 days (one time only), click here. The markets face another week on relatively easy street in terms of Treasury supply. Even though the Treasury is auctioning a big slug of longer term paper, it is...
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Pavlov’s Dogs Salivating For Ben’s Big Pork Bone Again
The market managers ginned up some bogus bad economic news this week and were able to push Treasury yields down. The actual, not seasonally manipulated economic data was much stronger than the Wall Street pundits would have you believe, as I showed in a couple of free articles in the Wall Street Examiner. After...
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California in Deep Doo doo
An Actionable reader, “Bullet,” posted an item Wednesday on California’s tax receipts cratering. There is more detail is his post, but here is the key take away. “Compared to last year, State tax collections for February s...
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Treasury 49-Day Bill Evidence of Growing Tax Shortfall
Tax receipts are not keeping up with the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) forecast.
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Treasury 4-Week Bill A Huge $11 Billion Above Forecast
CUSIP: 9127952Y6Term and Type: 4-Week BillOffering Amount: $35,000,000,000Auction Date: 12/13/2011Issue Date: 12/15/2011Maturity Date: 01/12/2012PDF version of the announcementXML version of the announcement
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Social Security 2011 – Another Bad Year
Note: After writing this article I received a number of comments that questioned whether the numbers presented in this piece reflect the 2% payroll tax holiday that occurred in 2011. The answer is that these numbers do take that into consideration. Yes...
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Payroll tax deal-What does it cost?
Listening to the talking heads legislators in D.C. over the past few days confirms to me that a deal on extending the payroll tax cuts for another year is going to get done. Sure there will be some histrionics, but there will be no tax increase for Ame...
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Treasury Market and Federal Government Cash Flows Weekly Update
The Treasury market, counter-intuitively, rallied after S&P downgraded US debt. It was a perverse buying panic. In spite of Thursday’s selloff in Treasury’s and poor 30 year bond auction, it’s not clear that that panic has ended. One signal that it has ended might be weekly close in the 10 year above 2.25%. Until...
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The 10 States That Make The Most From Sin
As state budgets strain under huge debt loads, they are counting increasingly on “sin taxes”, one of the few reliable sources of revenue in these uncertain economic times. States have profited from the public’s voracious appetite for easy mo...
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Insolvency Looms as States Drain U.S. Disability Fund
Sure is a lot of folk becoming disabled. Thinks its a racket?
Insolvency Looms as States Drain U.S. Disability Fund
In 2005, SSDI (Social Security Disability Insurance program) began spending more money than it brought in through tax receipts. A h...
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We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ QE2 Part 2
The Treasury will raise “just” $67-72 billion new cash next week. That’s some $20 billion less than the TBAC forecast. Woohoo. The recovery is here. TARP repayments, growing tax receipts, and reduced outlays are giving Treasury finances a boost. QL1.5 is working just the way it’s supposed to. The cash is filtering through the...
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Sludge Bubbles Up, Fed Pumps More- Professional Edition
The Fed’s strategy of pumping money into the markets with QL1.5 has been “working” on several levels. Treasury yields have plunged. Stocks are bubbling, the dollar has been trashed, and miracle of miracles, tax receipts appear to be firming, which means that the Fed cash is trickling into the realm of economic activity. That...
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Russ Winter’s Actionable- Dependent
April’s tax deficit of $83 billion is the highest April deficit on record. Income was $245.3 billion, 8 percent below the total recorded during last year’s recession impacted take. Spending was $328.0 billion, up 14 percent year-over-year. Overall tax receipts are down 7.9 percent YoY, while individual income tax is down 21.5 percent YoY....
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Sell in May and Go Away – Professional Edition
Monday’s auctions again saw strong demand, but higher rates. Supply was actually a bit lower than anticipated, this week. The TARP warrant sales probably had a small impact on that, but more importantly, tax receipts carried through on February’s strengthening with more strength in March. Click here to download complete report in pdf format...
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Jobs Report to Crush Stocks, Lift Treasuries- Professional Edition
The month to date tax receipts for the full month of February are out. Withholding taxes were down 2.3% year to year. That’s a big improvement in the rate of decline over recent months. The change was only -0.6% versus January. This is the best performance since 2007 when the month to month change...
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Score One For US! Professional Edition
The Treasury issued its refunding statement on Monday, followed by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee quarterly report on Tuesday. The statement recognized the reduction in first quarter offerings by $86 billion to $392 billion. This was essentially a recognition of the January reduction that resulted from the Treasury’s excess cash holdings at the end...
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The More The Fed Fiddles… Professional Edition
The Case Shiller Index of US housing prices for November has essentially turned flat over the past two readings. As usual, it is understating the real weakness in the market. Meanwhile the Fed announced that it will tinker with how it sets interest rates. Recent history has shown, the more the Fed tinkers, the...
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Tax Receipts Down Means Treasury Supply Up – Professional Edition
Month to date tax receipts are now in for the entire month of December. They’re down 7.7% from December 2008, which is exactly the same rate of decline as November’s. We know that the TBAC and Treasury officials were not anticipating that in their debt sales forecast for the first quarter. They had assumed...
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The Bad, The Ugly, and The Uglier- Professional Edition Fed Report
Tax receipts collapsed at an annual rate of 18% in October, which is far worse than I had feared based on our tracking of the daily data. At the same time, mortgage purchase applications collapsed last week, signaling the tailspin we expected as the first time home suckers panic subsided. The extension of this...
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Wherefor Art Thou, Green Shoots – Professional Edition Fed Report
Monthly tax receipts for August are out and the comparisons are ugly. Meanwhile, Treasury paydowns this week mean that there’s $20 billion floating around with no place to go in this little game of musical chairs. A few billion here and there to pump into stocks goes a long way, as we see by...
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TBAC Report – Don’t Worry Be Happy
In the Professional Edition Fed reports posted 3-4 times weekly, I make use of the quarterly estimates of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the Treasury’s weekly borrowing needs to see how the experts did versus the subsequent reality, mainly to judge if they seem to have a handle on the situation or not....
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Spending a buck while making 65 cents – Professional Edition
The 4 week bill auction was again very strong, signaling no diminution of strong buying interest from FCBs and others. So the game can go on. It had better. The Treasury released its monthly statement for June late yesterday and it revealed that revenues covered only 70% of outlays, continuing a weakening trend that...
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No Paydowns This Week – Professional Edition Fed Report
The Treasury normally has a debt paydown in the January 15 week, thanks to tax receipts, but not this year. Including the notes auctioned this week that will settle Thursday, the Treasury will settle a net of $17 billion in new paper on the week. Instead of the usual paydown bump the market will...
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Hank and Ben’s Excellent Short Term Gift – Professional Edition
The market got a huge gift from the US Treasury this week in the form of a $23 billion debt paydown. That cash put a bid under stocks and exacerbated the panic into Treasuries. The Treasury faces $40 billion in CMB expirations next week, and so far, there’s no announcement that they will be...
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