I’m struggling to find a different way to say the same thing again… Ah, the hell with it. The 10-12 month cycle projection is...
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Radio Free Wall Street
Posts Tagged ‘ Surprise ’
Economists Surprised Again By Unemployment Claims, Should Not Have Been
The mainstream media proclaimed an unexpected “beat” of the first time unemployment claims number today. The fake, seasonally fudged number dropped to 358,000 in the week ended February 4. According to Bloomberg, the consensus of economists’ expectations was for 370,000. Aside from the fact that whether economists get a forecast right or not seems...
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Byron Wien’s Surprises of 2012
Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, today published his list of surprises for 2012 -- following a 25-year tradition he began while still chief U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley.
Byron defines a "Surprise" as an ev...
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How much longer?
Will they paint this tape until year end,or will a surprise appear to burn the bulls?
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Run on William the Gross Funds
Bill Gross's PIMCO Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, keeps shrinking as investors look to put their money with some of his competitors.
PIMCO did not immediately return calls or emails seeking comment.
Gee, what a surprise.
http:...
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Europe Friday: Over promise, Under Deliver Again?
Thursday, December 08, 2011
Europe Friday: Over promise, Under Deliver Again?
by CalculatedRisk on 12/08/2011 11:51:00 PM
The ECB disappointed today, and the EU will probably under deliver again tomorrow.
The following is no surprise - no one expe...
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Waxing wave
Early openers lifted by a king tide: Kiwis +0.4%, Aussies +2%, Nikkers +2.4% and Sth Korea +3.5%.
In Aussie sectors it's no big surprise the Miners are stepping out, +3.4% followed by Materials +3.3%, Financials +2.3% and Gold +2.2%.
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You Know Things Are Bad When Doctor Visits Plunge
A lot fewer people are going to the doctor this year, and no, that's not a good thing.
Here's JP Morgan's John Rex: Sept ’11 office visit volumes down 8% y/y, while the sequential throughput measure increases 6% from August.... Primary care trend...
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Fascinating Thing About Epic Failures
The fascinating thing about "epic failures" is that they are really "never" a surprise.
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Treasury Paydown Turns Into a Drain
Fed pumped $6.9 billion today. However, what was originally scheduled as a $9 billion paydown at today's T-bill settlement instead becomes a $6 billion drain because of the surprise $15 billion CMB the Treasury had to flog this week because revenue ...
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Ugly, Disappointing Jobs Report from ADP
With the May non-farm payroll report coming out Friday morning, the market's focus remains on the labor market. And we got a less-than-reassuring glimpse of the jobs picture through the weaker-than-expected report this morning from payroll processor...
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Debt Ceiling Charade: Vote to Fail Next Week
Debt Ceiling Charade: Vote to Fail Next Week
by CalculatedRisk on 5/25/2011 11:49:00 AM
Stan Collender writes: Not A Surprise: GOP Plans Vote On Debt Ceiling Bill Next Week
House Republicans announced yesterday that they would bring a "clean" debt ...
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The Benefits of Telling the Ugly Truth
YOUR stock portfolio has been climbing like a rocket, and you’re beginning to think that your financial adviser is a genius.
hen he tells you he’s not. “It was just luck,” he says. That oil stock, the one that...
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How To Lend Money To Friends Without Losing Both
A tale of two loans and two friendships: Guiliano Stiglitz, an executive who lives in Miami and London, says he has never had any resentment over money he loaned to a friend, even as much as $200. "I write it off immediately," he says. "If they retu...
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The U.S. Housing Bust Is Getting Worse
Whoa…this looks bad too. In the housing sector, the fed’s ultra-low interest rates are supposed to make it easier to refinance…which is supposed to help firm up prices. But prices haven’t firmed. They’re still giving way.
The latest numbe...
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Home Prices Falling to the Level of the 1890s
From the Christian Science Monitor...
Some years back, Yale Professor Robert Shiller produced a long-run nominal home price index for the U.S. by fusing together data that had been gathered from a number of historical archives.
Shiller then adjuste...
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Treasury In A Pinch As Economy Stalls – Professional Edition
The Treasury had a little surprise for the market this week as it dropped the bombshell on Tuesday that it was short of cash. OK it didn’t say so in so many words. It just announced that it would float $25 billion in Cash Management Bills to hold it over until April 15. These...
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History Tells Us The Secular Bear Is Not Over Yet
THE ALMOST relentless advance in stock prices off the lows of spring 2009 continues to frustrate the bears. Although the resulting underweight position in equities has proved beneficial to investment performance over a horizon of four to five years...
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Is Erskine Bowles a forum lurker?
Erskine Bowles (Clinton chief of staff, UNC president, Obama's fiscal responsibility commission co-chair) spoke to a business group today in Raleigh. Sounds like he might be one of the lurkers on this board.
He said, ""That debt is like a cancer, a...
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Kass: 15 Surprises For 2011
Eight years ago, I set out and prepared a list of possible surprises for the coming year, taking a page out of the estimable Byron Wien's playbook, who originally delivered his list while chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley, then Pequot Ca...
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Fed Hands It Out, Treasury Draws Short Straw- Professional Edition
There were two different markets this week, neither of which came as a surprise to us. On Monday and Tuesday the market was faced with settling $64 billion in new Treasury supply, with little Fed POMO the prior week to help absorb it. After that, there was no new Treasury supply, and the Fed...
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Would a COLLAPSE now really surprise anyone?
http://mauibear.maui.net/
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Big Surprise Coming – Professional Edition
The Treasury buying panic rolled on this week, as evidenced by the level of demand at this week’s auctions, but it wasn’t enough to keep bond prices from falling.
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Supply Much More Than Thought- Professional Edition
The Treasury calendar for next week will be light with only bills offered. New supply will total an estimated $8 billion if the 4 week bill is the same size as last week. This would be a $5 billion overshoot of the TBAC estimate presented just 4 weeks ago. That along with the need...
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As Good As It Gets for Treasuries- Professional Edition
This week’s Treasury auctions are complete, and no surprise, they were strong, helped along by a debt paydown and the sovereign debt fears sweeping Europe. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the...
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More Gumnut Shortfalls
One of the slush funds Gumnut has been able to tap into for its largesse is Social Security, which had been collecting decent surpluses. Bruce Kasting has taken a look at the latest report on that front, and it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, but 2009 came up short on its projections. No...
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Is Today’s Market Going to Sucker You into the Wrong Side of the Trade?
What if, today or Monday, the S&P 500 (SPX) suddenly broke out of the trading range it's been in since August? Weak bears would likely cover their shorts immediately, and bulls would almost certainly add to the...
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