A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest of getting caught up, I’m presenting a condensed version of the Fed Report tonight. It includes just the main components of the macro liquidity indicator (which I suspect is probably all that you really want anyway). For reference purposes you can access the last full report and a free preview here. I promise to do my best to get back to the usual 125 page tome by the end of this week. Then I will take a vacation!

In the meantime, I thank you for your forebearance and support. My 90 year old mother and my wife, who rarely see me, both thank you for sharing me with them from time to time.

I hope that you are enjoying the new Capitalstool.com Stool Pigeons Wire message board software also installed at the Wall Street Examiner forums, that I have been working to get installed and operational since yesterday. They’re pretty spiffy and were part of the reason for this delay, but only part.

So, with no more excuses and without further adieu, let’s begin this week’s festivities on a fresh page. However, before we do that, I would like to note just one thing that’s not covered in the summary report below. The Fed’s balance sheet shrank by $10 billion this week and is now $45 billion below its level when QE2 ended last June. So please don’t get sucked in by the nonsense flying around the web about the Fed doing a stealth QE. It just ain’t a fact, M’am!

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S&P cash surged on the open following yesterday’s mid afternoon 2 day cycle buy signal. The 5 day cycle indicator has been on the buy side since the middle of the day Monday.The last 2 day cycle projection yesterday of 1316 is now in the rear view mirror. The new projection of 1322 is already done. So is a 3 day cycle projection also of 1322. However, there’s still a 5 day cycle projection of 1328.

An 8 day cycle channel line at 1323 is projected resistance, as is a rising 5 day cycle line at 1326. Support is suggested at a 5 day cycle channel line at 1319 and an 8 day cycle channel line at 1316.

Here’s the cash SPX chart (time stamp in lower right corner).

The SP futures (or ES electronic mini S&P) rally peaked at 4:30 AM NY time. It’s been walking sideways ever since, so the cash market was just catching up. The trend was already finished for 5 hours when NY opened. But the sideways move doesn’t indicate weakness. 2 and 5 day cycle indicators are still on the buy side. Resistance is indicated at a 2 day cycle channel line around 1320 and a 5 day cycle channel line at roughly 1324. Support is suggested at the converging 2 and 5 day cycle center lines at roughly 1311.

Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart (time stamp in upper right corner).

Blue lines more or less represent the nominal 5 day cycle. Red lines more or less represent the nominal 2 day cycle. The first oscillator more or less represents the 5 day cycles. The 3 lower oscillators more or less represent the 2 day cycle. Cycles vary in length and are not the sole component of price action. Outside influences and random noise may have a significant impact at any time, often unpredictable. These charts and their interpretation are meant for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only and are subject to the Wall Street Examiner terms of use.

You can follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com.

The daily cycle charts are updated in the Wall Street Professional Edition market update every day. Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections along with regression channel and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.

The blowoff ended yesterday morning and SPX cash has drifted down irregularly, hitting the last 2 day cycle projection of 1315 late yesterday. The 2 day cycle oscillator formed a trough at the end of the day, and has barely edged to the buy side in the opening minutes today. 5 day cycle indicators remain on the sell side, and if this low doesn’t hold we could be looking at 1300 late in the day. Support is initially suggested at 1314, and 1308-09, with a big gap below that down to around 1299.

Here’s the cash SPX chart (time stamp in lower right corner).

The SP futures (or ES electronic mini S&P) sold off on the GDP announcement but held well above inner channel lines around 1304 before rebounding back to the 2 day cycle centerline at 1313 in the first 20 minutes of NY trading. The next resistance above that is the 5 day cycle centerline at 1317. There’s room for a little pop to 1325 above that. 2 day cycle indicators are mixed. The spoos could stay rangebound for a while between 1312 and 1304.

Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart (time stamp in upper right corner).

Blue lines more or less represent the nominal 5 day cycle. Red lines more or less represent the nominal 2 day cycle. The first oscillator more or less represents the 5 day cycles. The 3 lower oscillators more or less represent the 2 day cycle. Cycles vary in length and are not the sole component of price action. Outside influences and random noise may have a significant impact at any time, often unpredictable. These charts and their interpretation are meant for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only and are subject to the Wall Street Examiner terms of use.

You can follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com.

The daily cycle charts are updated in the Wall Street Professional Edition market update every day. Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections along with regression channel and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.

SPX (cash) opened weak. 2 day cycle oscillators had been on the sell side since mid day on Thursday. The weak opening left 5 day cycle indicators on the brink of sell signals. The market has already raced ahead of the initial downside projection for the 2 day cycle. A 5 hr cycle projection points to an interim low of about 1305-06.

SPX is already below the 8 day cycle centerline, which is still rising sharply at 1309. That line should now be resistance. The first indicated support lines are an innder 5 day cycle channel line at 1306 and an inner 8 day cycle channel line at 1304. Things could get interesting if they don’t hold.

Here’s the cash SPX chart (time stamp in lower right corner).

The SP futures (or ES electronic mini S&P) have been flatlining since late last night. They are sandwiched between a slightly rising 5 day cycle centerline at approximately 1307, and a flat 2 day cycle centerline at 1309. It will be a very dull day if they don’t break one of those lines, but there’s room for a move to 1320 if they break to the upside, or to the first support at 1299 if they break down.

Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart (time stamp in upper right corner).

Blue lines more or less represent the nominal 5 day cycle. Red lines more or less represent the nominal 2 day cycle. The first oscillator more or less represents the 5 day cycles. The 3 lower oscillators more or less represent the 2 day cycle. Cycles vary in length and are not the sole component of price action. Outside influences and random noise may have a significant impact at any time, often unpredictable. These charts and their interpretation are meant for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only and are subject to the Wall Street Examiner terms of use.

You can follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com.

The daily cycle charts are updated in the Wall Street Professional Edition market update every day. Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections along with regression channel and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.

SPX (cash) finished the day on Wednesday with the market trending toward a 5 day cycle projection of 1311. Meanwhile the futures tacked on another 7 points from their 4 PM NY close. An 8 day cycle channel line on SPX comes in at 1311, with a 5 day cycle centerline at 1305 as the likely resistances and support lines in the early going. The opening surge resulted in new 2 and 5 day cycle projections of approximately 1313. The next 5 day cycle channel line is at 1316.

Here’s the cash SPX chart (time stamp in lower right corner).

The SP futures (or ES electronic mini S&P) rallied from around 5 AM NY time until around 8:30, after hitting and holding at the 2 day cycle centerline at 1300. That line has risen to around 1303, which should be support. 2 and 5 day cycle indicators are in trending mode, but the futures are now pulling back toward support. The next resistance area is indicated around a 5 day cycle inner channel line near 1311. That would correspond with the 5 day cycle centerline on SPX around 1306.

Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart (time stamp in upper right corner).

Blue lines more or less represent the nominal 5 day cycle. Red lines more or less represent the nominal 2 day cycle. The first oscillator more or less represents the 5 day cycles. The 3 lower oscillators more or less represent the 2 day cycle. Cycles vary in length and are not the sole component of price action. Outside influences and random noise may have a significant impact at any time, often unpredictable. These charts and their interpretation are meant for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only and are subject to the Wall Street Examiner terms of use.

You can follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com.

The daily cycle charts are updated in the Wall Street Professional Edition market update every day. Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections along with regression channel and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.

SPX (cash) opened weaker, falling below the 8 day cycle centerline, but is since has recovered above that line. The 2 day cycle projection of 1290 was almost hit in the opening moments. 5 day cycle indicators are on the cusp of sell signals, but the 2 day cycle is opposed, with the indicators on the verge of buy signals. This is a recipe for a rangebound market.

The first challenge on the upside will be to get above the 8 day cycle centerline at 1293.50, and then the 5 day cycle centerline at 1296. Failing that, they should pull back again.

Here’s the cash SPX chart (time stamp in lower right corner).

The SP futures (or ES electronic mini S&P) have been weakening since peaking at 5 AM NY time but they are holding near the declining 2 day cycle centerline at 1291. 2 and 5 day cycle indicators are whisawing around their signal lines. The 2 day cycle centerline and the 5 day cycle centerline around 1294-95 are the key resistance lines that need to be broken to get any upside going. If they weaken further from here, an air pocket is indicated down to where the next set of 2 and 5 day cycle channel lines converge around 1280.

Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart (time stamp in upper right corner).

Blue lines more or less represent the nominal 5 day cycle. Red lines more or less represent the nominal 2 day cycle. The first oscillator more or less represents the 5 day cycles. The 3 lower oscillators more or less represent the 2 day cycle. Cycles vary in length and are not the sole component of price action. Outside influences and random noise may have a significant impact at any time, often unpredictable. These charts and their interpretation are meant for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only and are subject to the Wall Street Examiner terms of use.

You can follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com.

The daily cycle charts are updated in the Wall Street Professional Edition market update every day. Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections along with regression channel and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.

SPX (cash) opened with a massive gap that resulted in a 2 day cycle projection of 1303-07. The gap down triggered sell signals on 2 and 5 day cycle oscillators. Resistance is suggested at an 8 day cycle inner channel line at 1305. If that’s cleared, the next one is at 1314. Support is indicated at 1301and 1297. 2, 5, and 8 day cycle oscillators are on the buy side. The 2 and 5 day cycle indicators had triggered buy signals on Friday afternoon.

Here’s the cash SPX chart (time stamp in lower right corner).

The SP futures (or ES electronic mini S&P) have been weakening since peaking at 5 AM NY time. The Spoos have now dropped to the 2 day cycle centerline at about 1295, where there should be support. 2 day cycle indicators are on the sell side, but the market can continue to trend upward as long as the price holds above the 2 day cycle centerline.

Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart (time stamp in upper right corner).

Blue lines more or less represent the nominal 5 day cycle. Red lines more or less represent the nominal 2 day cycle. The first oscillator more or less represents the 5 day cycles. The 3 lower oscillators more or less represent the 2 day cycle. Cycles vary in length and are not the sole component of price action. Outside influences and random noise may have a significant impact at any time, often unpredictable. These charts and their interpretation are meant for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only and are subject to the Wall Street Examiner terms of use.

You can follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com.

The daily cycle charts are updated in the Wall Street Professional Edition market update every day. Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections along with regression channel and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.

SPX (cash) closed yesterday with a 2 day cycle projection of 1285. It blasted through that on the open, resulting in a new projection of 1295.50, which was about where the SPX stood as I typed this at 9:35 AM. A 5 day cycle resistance line was also indicated at that level with the next resistance level indicated at an 8 day cycle line at 1302.50. Support is suggested at 1289. The initial move here looks like the beginning of a 5 day cycle up phase.

Here’s the cash SPX chart as of 9:39 AM NY time.

The SP futures rallied through the night and pre market this morning, reaching the convergence of the first 2 and 5 day cycle inner channel lines at 1288 early this morning, and then pushing against those lines as they rose slightly to around 1289 a minute before NY opened. 2 day cycle momentum edged to the sell side at 9:00 AM NY time, but the 2 and 5 day cycle oscillators remained on the buy side. A pullback will be in order if the spoos can’t breach the 2 day cycle channel line which is now at 1291. Primary support would be the 2 day cycle centerline now at 1281.50 and slowly rising.

Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart as of 9:39 AM NY time.

Blue lines more or less represent the nominal 5 day cycle. Red lines more or less represent the nominal 2 day cycle. The first oscillator more or less represents the 5 day cycles. The 3 lower oscillators more or less represent the 2 day cycle. Cycles vary in length and are not the sole component of price action. Outside influences and random noise may have a significant impact at any time, often unpredictable. These charts and their interpretation are meant for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only and are subject to the Wall Street Examiner terms of use.

You can follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com.

The daily cycle charts are updated in the Wall Street Professional Edition market update every day. Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections along with regression channel and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.

SPX (cash) just popped as it tries to get back to the 8 day cycle centerline at about 1282. That cycle appears toppy.The 5 day cycle indicator is weak. SPX traded down to the area of the rising 5 day cycle channel centerline, briefly broke below where it hit a 2 day cycle projection of 1274 and then began to recover at about 10:10 AM. The 1277 area was resistance but is now support. A drop back below 1275 would indicate that the 5 day cycle is probably starting a down phase early. For now, the move through 1277 means that they could run back to the 8 day cycle centerline at 1282.

The SP futures were oscillating around the 2 day cycle centerline at 1273 and the 5 day cycle centerline at 1270. They just popped through the 2 day cycle centerline. The 5 day cycle indicator remains in weak trending mode. 2 day cycle indicators have edged to the sell side. A drop below 1270 would open the way for a move to the 1262-1258 area. An extension of this pop looks like it has room to run to about 1283-84.

The charts are essentially rangebound. We won’t see a big move until cash breaks either 1275 or 1282, or the futures break below 1270 or above 1282.

Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart as of 10:53 AM NY time.

Blue lines more or less represent the nominal 5 day cycle. Red lines more or less represent the nominal 2 day cycle. The first oscillator more or less represents the 5 day cycles. The 3 lower oscillators more or less represent the 2 day cycle. Cycles vary in length and are not the sole component of price action. Outside influences and random noise may have a significant impact at any time, often unpredictable. These charts and their interpretation are meant for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only and are subject to the Wall Street Examiner terms of use.

You can follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com.

The daily cycle charts are updated in the Wall Street Professional Edition market update every day. Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections along with regression channel and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.

The SPX (cash) has bounced from a 2 day cycle projection of 1266, but both 2 and 5 day cycle indicators have just turned down, suggesting that more downside is likely, but even the 3 day cycle projection only points to 1264 and time counts suggest that both 2 and 5 day cycle lows may be due this morning. The cash chart shows support at 1265-66. Here’s the cash market chart at 10:11 AM NY time.

S&P futures (SP and ES electronic mini) got down to 1260, where the first 2 day cycle line was located. The first 5 day cycle line is just below that approximately 1257. The futures would need to break those levels to get any downside going. Likewise, the cash would need to break that 1265 area. As with the cash, 2 and 5 day cycle indicators on the futures are on the sell side. A slight positive divergence has developed on one of the 2 day cycle indicators on the futures. That has not happened yet on the cash chart.

Assuming that a bounceback is under way, the critical resistance levels will be around 1271 cash and 1270 on the futures. If those levels hold, then another downdraft would probably be forthcoming. If they don’t then look for a meltup.

Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart as of 10:11 AM NY time.

Blue lines more or less represent the nominal 5 day cycle. Red lines more or less represent the nominal 2 day cycle. The first oscillator more or less represents the 5 day cycles. The 3 lower oscillators more or less represent the 2 day cycle. Cycles vary in length and are not the sole component of price action. Outside influences and random noise may have a significant impact at any time, often unpredictable. These charts and their interpretation are meant for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only and are subject to the Wall Street Examiner terms of use.

You can follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com.

The daily cycle charts are updated in the Wall Street Professional Edition market update every day. Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections along with regression channel and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.