Tag Archive for Seasonal Adjustment

With strong month, Durable Goods Orders rose 5% over May 2011

6/27/12 May Real Durable Goods Orders, adjusted for inflation and not seasonally manipulated were up 4.1% over May 2011. That compares with a 4% gain in April. In adjusting for inflation, this measure attempts to represents actual unit volume of orders. Also, the use of actual, versus seasonally manipulated (SA) data allows an accurate view…

Factory Orders not too hot, not too cold, but not just right

 This post is a copy of the updated permanent Factory and Durable Goods Orders page, which is updated monthly when new data is published. You can bookmark that page for future reference.  Real Durable Goods New Orders and Stock Prices April Real Durable Goods Orders, adjusted for inflation and not seasonally manipulated were up 3.7%…

It’s That Time of The Month, Employment Data Leads To Investment Mood Syndrome

Every month the gummit’s Bureau of Liar Statistics (BLS) dutifully reports reams and reams of data on the employment situation in the US. Some of it is actually useful. The rest is reported by the mainstream financial news media. The BLS reports both seasonally adjusted (SA) data and not seasonally adjusted  (NSA) data. The NSA…

Deconstructing The “Massive Beat” in Employment Data- Corrected

Editor’s Note: The earlier version of this article included unadjusted numbers derived from a spreadsheet error. The error resulted in the not seasonally adjusted month to month employment declines being understated. The data has been corrected. The analysis and conclusions are unaffected. Thanks to rdkyote for bringing this to my attention! The headlines are blaring…

Unemployment Claims Data and Economists’ Exploding Brain Syndrome

With the mainstream media reporting the seasonally adjusted first time unemployment claims down by 6,000 it’s time for a reminder that this number is fake, and may or may not give an accurate representation of the trend. If it does, it’s purely a coincidence. Economists and financial journos are in love with the seasonally manipulated…

Durable Goods Devil In The Details And The Big Picture

“Durable Goods Orders Rise 4%,” blared the headlines this morning. There was just one minor problem with that. It was not true. It represented the seasonally adjusted, massaged, and manipulated number, which bears no semblance to reality. The mainstream media always reports just the seasonal hocus pocus while ignoring the actual number. That actual number…