A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Seasonal Adjustment Factors ’
Builder Indexes Down In April, But Trend Is Still Up
The dark and dirty job of pointing out that the NAHB Housing Market Index present conditions index is up 11 points versus last April and traffic is up 5 points falls to me, I guess. The mainstream media and the NAHB itself has already widely reported only the bad news that April was down versus...
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Interpreting The Head Scratching Unemployment Claims Data
Actual, not seasonally adjusted, initial unemployment claims totaled 319,349 last week, according to the Department of Labor tabulation of weekly data submitted to it by the 50 state employment departments. This number was virtually unchanged from the prior week total of 319,382. As always, the media reported only the seasonally manipulated numbers showing a...
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Unemployment Claims Data and Economists’ Exploding Brain Syndrome
With the mainstream media reporting the seasonally adjusted first time unemployment claims down by 6,000 it’s time for a reminder that this number is fake, and may or may not give an accurate representation of the trend. If it does, it’s purely a coincidence. Economists and financial journos are in love with the seasonally...
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Pending Home Sales Cow Patties
Here’s what Bloomberg had to say about this morning’s reported jump in pending home sales (signed sales agreements). Pending sales of U.S. existing houses unexpectedly jumped by a record 10 percent in October, indicating the industry at the center of the last recession is stabilizing as the job market improves. Allow me to phrase...
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More Little Lies and Big Spin- Gains or Blips?
The FIM (Financial Infomercial Media) has gifted us with more nonsense today in the form of Pending Homes Sales data from the NAR (Realtors) and the Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index from the ISM (Purchasing Managers). Bloomberg was positively ecstatic about the housing data, proclaiming “The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes rose...
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