A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Wednesday’s action was a mirror image of Tuesday, except that the underlying technical indicators were stronger than the market averages on both days. The market still has to clear resistance and generate 13 week cycle buy signals to confirm that it is out of danger on the downside.
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Monday could be a bit rough with payments due for the settlement of $54 billion in new Treasury paper, but the technical signals still point higher.
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The market ran into a line of resistance and pulled back. Broad market indicators were mixed and inconclusive but cycle screening measures continued to build on strength.
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While all cycles up to 10-12 months are technically in gear in down phases, the market has shown little sign of giving ground. Lows are overdue on the 4 week and 6 month cycles and only the 4 week cycle projection is slightly below levels that have already been reached. Liquidity should now be...
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10-12 month cycle indicators have now edged to the sell side, portending a down phase lasting 4 to 6 months. It’s too early to estimate the shape of the down phase, but there will be clues over the next few days.
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Cycle structures are a mixed bag, with multiple juxtapositions. The market is unlikely to make a sustained move in either direction in the short run unless a new 6 month cycle up phase kicks into gear with a strong enough thrust to cause other cycles to resynch. The objective would then be to move...
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The market averages broke out and technical indicators confirmed the move. The suggestion is that new up phases are beginning not only in short term cycles, but in the 13 week cycle as well.
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Apparently the cash generated by the ECB’s second big LTRO operation has yet to be deployed in the markets, which leads us to the possibility that the boat was already overloaded on the buy side (See Treasury report). But that cash is out there, and once the profit taking dries up, the composite liquidity...
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The market continues to trend weakly higher. Cycle indicators have become all but worthless in the process. All that’s left is to follow the bouncing ball as it rolls uphill along the trendlines, until it doesn’t. All intermediate cycle projections now point to 1420-30. It’s pretty simple from here.
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Tuesday is groundhog day. Does that mean we can expect more of the same? The cyclical window for a down turn is fast closing. If the 6-7 week cycle turns up, the uptrend could even accelerate. Projections have moved up to 1370 on a 10-12 month cycle basis, and 1390 on the 13 week...
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