Posts Tagged ‘ Rally ’

The dollar strengthened dramatically in an apparent short squeeze that triggered liquidation across most asset types. The dollar has emerged strongly from a formidable bottom on the charts, as the first response of dollar carry traders to double down and increase their bets back in December has come back to bite them and the...
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Cycle based stock screening data strengthened across all 9 measures, as the market probably began at least a 4 week cycle up phase. But there are caveats. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t...
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Another item is out on another possible sovereign default, Venezuela, that I didn’t mention yesterday. Chart showing the collapse of world trade. Question begs, why the giant rally in emerging markets?  Time to deliver the real goods? Matt Taibbi describes how Obama’s Wall Street cronies captured the Gumnut.  Jeremy Grantham on captured Gumnut’s irrational policies. IRA...
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One of the key problems with the recent advance has been the weakness in 6 month cycle status, which was a sign that the rally was built on a weak and narrow base. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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$5 billion in bonds were called as of November 15, but we already accounted for that in our table. Furthermore, $5 billion in cash hitting the market is far from sufficient to explain this rally in both stocks and bonds. However, we do know that the Fed usually settles big chunks of their MBS...
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They’ve used a lot of thrust energy just to get half way across the range. The question now is whether this thrust will last long enough for the intermediate cycles to get involved or whether this is just a flash bang badda bing badda boom you’re done counter rally. Click here to...
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Cycle based stock screening data was only mixed on Thursday, in spite of the big rally. Because of minimal oscillation in most stocks over the past couple of months, the shorter term numbers are not particularly meaningful here. I continue to focus on 6 month cycle current status indications. Click here to...
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There’s absolutely no sign of any weakness in the 6 month cycle numbers, as that cycle continues to drive the rally. Also, 13 week cycle status finally edged to the plus side. If this measure strengthens from here, the market could be going into the kind of parabolic blowoff where shorting could be hazardous...
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Cycle based stock screening data was mixed, with 4 measures stronger and 5 weaker, suggesting that the rally should take a breather. 13 week cycle status is still barely neutral. While this may have slowed the rate of ascent it hasn’t stopped it, as the 6 month cycle indications have stayed strong. ...
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The market has reached a last ditch resistance line. If they break through this line with intermediate indicators turning up, it would suggest a major extension of this move. If the rally is halted here, the bears would have a shot at a reversal, but not a guarantee. Click here to download...
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Just one simple chart to see how the triple-leveraged financial ETF from Direxion was perfoming during the rally from March lows: The performance is compared to simple, not leveraged financial ETF (XLF). As you can see the slippage is amazing. I’m curious to know what is your downside target for the correction (if the correction...
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Bloomberg did a hit piece on Roubini today by one Whitney Kisling. The article also praised Laszlo Birinyi for getting the 1990s right, and quoted one money manager as saying we should only listen to money managers, and not analysts. As if those money managers aren’t publicly talking their book, using the media as...
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The Fed bought 2-3 year Treasuries today as scheduled, spurring a rally in the Treasury market in spite of the prospect of having to absorb $98 billion in new supply this week. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty...
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The 1030-1050 area on the SPX is a major resistance zone. The rally will either be halted here this week, or it seems likely that the market will move significantly higher in the weeks ahead. Negative divergences and price projections just above Friday’s close suggest that the battle lines are drawn between the forces...
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Andy Xie has a timely piece describing the Bubble du jour, China. The causa proxima of the Bubble and the eventual Bust (reBust) is the usual suspect, a trashed USD.  Xie is suggesting that at some point, US monetary policy may be tightened, causing a flash rally in the USD of sorts.  Obviously the...
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Mutual fund cash level data is out and they have worked through a bit more of their cash reserves, bringing the number down to 4.6%.  From AMG: flows into equity funds jumped to $5.1 billion from the previous week of about 193 million.Interestingly very little margin fresh margin borrowing has been used in this...
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This rally looks pretty good on the surface, buy when you tear the veneer off and look at the inner workings, it’s pretty clear that not all gears are meshing. As the engine is spinning uphill it is losing momentum. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition...
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Although nothing should be a surprise, a 6% three day flash rally as the H&S neckline was being probed is a bit of one. One thing that is certain about markets in general and this one in particular is that concepts like H&S, support levels, etc will be eternally gamed. Now that this particular...
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Another low volume pump rally in celebration of the perceived capture of the Gumnut by financial interests continues today. So far these have set up a pattern of flash events, that in turn evaporate. I would anticipate that this one follow the pattern.  It also enforces my warnings of late about trading this market...
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Besides the big insider sales and stock sales evident from the Great Pump and Dump rally, comes indications that other big Pig Men have taken advantage of the situation to trade or offload trash in the neighborhood. The foils would most likely have been the Fed, various GSEs, the public, and perhaps under slimy...
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The Fed bought just over $10 billion in Treasuries this week. Given the light supply of new paper, it’s surprising that the market took until Thursday to rally. The Fed will be buying GSE paper on Friday, and because supply will be light again next week, and the Fed will probably be buying another...
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Internal market indicators were weaker than the market averages on Friday. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple....
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Cycle based stock screening data was surprisingly weak, in view of the rally. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
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Monday’s rally caused a surge in the 6 month cycle projection. Is there any hope for the bears? Resistance… Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful,...
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Margin data for April was released and showed only a small increase. This suggests to me that the rally (at least in April) was driven more by a combination of too much sidelined money,  and short covering, not releveraging.  This in turn suggests that any correction when it comes may not have the liquidation,...
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The correction so far has removed the long overbought status of the market. However, the rally was so one sided and sentiment so strange, that I would have to see a minus 200 reading in the McClellan Oscillator (MO) to even consider recommitting sideline cash to anything. Need a much higher VIX as well....
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The Fed bought Treasury notes today in the second operation of the week buying longer dated paper. One more operation is slated for Thursday. In the absence of the Treasury offering any longer dated paper this week, the Fed’s buying is having an impact, with yields falling. That can continue as long as the...
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The Hail Mary rally has been greatly centered around the notion that conditions will significantly improve for consumers and in turn the institutions that lend to them.  This also has a strong component of government bailout psychology built in to it.  It is as if the authorities have the ability to magically make consumers...
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The rally carried to the brink of breaking through some very important resistance levels on Friday. Such breaks would imply a substantial extension of the up move. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time,...
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The Crammercator has been at an extreme of late, represented by the squirting of aerosol cheese across the TV studio according to Trader Joe of the Stool Pigeons Wire. Similar readings of hysteria were reported in the CNBSicator. Did those readings signal the top of the rally? I can’t say for sure, but a...
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