A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Nar ’
Listed House Sale Closings Rose 74,000 in March, Prices up 5% in Month, 2.5% in Year
The NAR reported today that their members settled 361,000 house sales in March (actual, not seasonally manipulated), up 74,000 from February. The median price rose 5.27% versus February and was up 2.5% versus March 2011. This was the largest monthly percentage price gain since June 2005. The year over year gain was the first...
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Housing Market Data Tilts Slightly Positive
Some housing sales data now shows prices with a slight year over year increase including the NAR’s existing home sales and the Commerce Department’s new home sales data. The NAR data is from February, representing mostly contracts from December. It tells us nothing about the current market. The Commerce Department data is more current,...
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Home sales contracts falling apart 2X faster than last year
In a rare moment of semi-lucid disclosure, the National Association of Realtors (“NAR”) reported that home sales contracts are falling apart TWICE as often as they did last year, according to the numbers released at its annual convention in Anah...
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Glimmers of Housing Hope In Mortgage Applications Data
Purchase mortgage applications rose 6.4% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association and major media outlets. As always, the media report only the seasonally adjusted data fed to them by the MBAA. Rarely should a week to week change have any seasonal effects, although last week would be an exception because the week...
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Did The NAR Lie About August Pending Home Sales?
Data released today by the Mortgage Bankers Ass. suggest that housing demand is again cratering. In the last week of September mortgage purchase applications were down about 12% versus the same week last year. This is similar to the difference at the end of August, when the drop was about 13%. Chart and data-...
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Home Sales Contracts Better than Media, NAR report
The mainstream financial media is widely misreporting the NAR’s Pending Home Sales data this morning, simply parroting the NAR’s seasonally manipulated data. As it turns out, the NAR is screwing its own pooch because the actual, not manipulated data is actually much better than the seasonally smoothed numbers imply. That’s not to say sales...
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Housing Time Bomb Goes Tick Tock Tick Tock
A couple of data points reported today marked a tick and a tock on the housing market clock. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications Index release was weak but not explosive. The FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) monthly data on home sale prices was up, but meaningless. The FHFA data is after the fact price...
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Housing Indicators Show Lower Seasonal Peak
Two housing market indicators released over the last two days suggest that the market is making a seasonal peak at a weaker level than last year, but that the rate of decline is slowing. Mortgage purchase applications have been slipping in June following a small decline in the week ended June 17. They remain...
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Employment Numbers Not Good News For Housing
A clear and direct relationship has existed between employment and house prices in the US over the past 9 years. In order for housing prices to turn up, a necessary condition would be a sustained upturn in total employment. Although the widely reported seasonally adjusted employment data seems to indicate that such an upturn...
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Housing Prices Rise In Response to Reduced Supply, Higher Employment
No, this is not an April Fools joke. In a surprising turn of events, listing prices rose sharply in March. It could be a case of hope springs eternal, but may also be a result of less foreclosure inventory on the market and a strong gain in total employment in March. The reduction in...
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Alarming Housing Data
There’s a lot of new real estate data to report on since my last update, all of it bad, not in terms of the quality of the data, some of which is lousy, but in terms of the direction that the numbers are headed. Mortgage applications show that current demand is still in the...
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Has the NAR No Shame?
The National Association of Liars reported existing home sales for December today. They said that existing home sales "increased 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.36 million in January from a downwardly revised 5.22 million in Dec...
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Housing Collapse Has Been Understated!
(Reuters) - The National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday any overcounting of U.S. existing home sales in its data was "relatively minor", dismissing claims it could have overstated sales by as much as 20 percent.
The Realtors group said i...
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The Housing Recovery LIE – Professional Edition
The lagged data from the worst housing indicator in the world, Case Shiller, came out this week, following last week’s release of existing home sales closings in December. Also out this week, the Commerce Department’s Report on new home sales, and the NAR’s data on sales contracts. The Case Shiller data is still catching...
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Damn The Facts! Pending home sales plunge!
Damn The Facts! Pending home sales plunge 20.1% m/m, to 4.8% BELOW last December, the lowest since the bottom of the crash in Dec. 08. More coming up in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Housing Report.
Here's how Bullberg reported it....
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Post Governmentus Interruptus, Housing Market Sags- Professional Edition
The Mortgage Bankers’ Ass. is closed this week, hence there was no release of the Mortgage Applications Index, the best real time housing demand indicator. However, this week we do have the lagged data from the worst housing indicator in the world, Case Shiller, as well as the almost-as-stupid Pending Home Sales Index from...
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This Morning’s Tweets
Lee_Adler ...
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The NAR’s Big Lie – Professional Edition
The NAR reported a gain in pending home sales in July versus June. This is completely false, and once again results from a bizarre, arcane seasonal adjustment that bears no semblance of reality. Contracts actually dropped 7.4% month to month.
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Best They Can Do?
Originally published by email . Use the form in the right sidebar to receive the free Wall Street Examiner Economic Bulletin emails. I update this chart of mortgage applications weekly in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Fed Report. It is based on data published by the Mortgage Wankers Association each week. The more...
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Tax Receipts Down Means Treasury Supply Up – Professional Edition
Month to date tax receipts are now in for the entire month of December. They’re down 7.7% from December 2008, which is exactly the same rate of decline as November’s. We know that the TBAC and Treasury officials were not anticipating that in their debt sales forecast for the first quarter. They had assumed...
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Distortions, Distortions – Professional Edition Fed Report
Today’s release of existing home sales by the NAR shows that Federal housing gift programs continue to distort the housing market. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will...
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Expectation Gap
New data from the NAR is out on commercial properties. Office space in 2009 is projected at 16.1% vacant, and at 20.4% vacant in 2010. Interestingly net absorption is stated as negative 81.7 million sf in 2009, and ANOTHER 115 million sf in 2010. Retail space is 12.1% vacant in 2009, projected at 15.8%...
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More Little Lies and Big Spin- Gains or Blips?
The FIM (Financial Infomercial Media) has gifted us with more nonsense today in the form of Pending Homes Sales data from the NAR (Realtors) and the Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index from the ISM (Purchasing Managers). Bloomberg was positively ecstatic about the housing data, proclaiming “The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes rose...
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