A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Moving Average ’
Weakening Federal Withholding Tax Collections Do Note Bode Well For Employment
This report is an excerpt from the permanent Employment Chart page. The edge that Federal Withholding Tax collections had held over last year continued to narrow last week, suggesting a weakening employment picture in May. The chart below compares current withholding tax collections with last year on the same date. This year collections have...
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Housing Data: Shiller Unaware Bernankinflation Winning
There were two major housing data releases today. One of them is important. The other was a misleading misdirection play, that is leaving its creator clueless. Due to its peculiar and excessive smoothing methodology, the housing Case Chiller is always behind the curve. It uses a 3 month average of sale prices closed in...
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The Market’s Getting a Wedgie
The "risk-on" stock market is getting a wedgie, and so is its "risk-off" counterpart, the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. stock market is getting a wedgie, and so is the U.S. dollar. That matters, as wedges tend to break up or down in a big way. Stocks...
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Primary Dealers and Their Biggest Client Off The Hook For Now, What Next?
The composite liquidity indicator edged higher last week, continuing a slow but steady uptrend. In February and March, the indicator had accelerated upward away from its 39 week moving average. That acceleration has slowed, but the indicator continues to advance. With somewhat less abundant liquidity, the government and Primary Dealers have targeted that liquidity...
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Liquidity Composite At Record High
The composite liquidity indicator was virtually flat last week, for a second week, on a mixed performance in its components. In February and March, the indicator had accelerated upward away from its 39 week moving average, but it has stalled over the last 4 weeks. With less abundant liquidity, the government and Primary Dealers...
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Cyclical Liquidity Flows Approach Inflection Point
The following is an excerpt from the Executive Summary of this week’s Professional Edition Fed Report. Subscribers can access the full report here. The composite liquidity indicator was virtually flat last week on a mixed performance in its components. The indicator has recently accelerated upward away from its 39 week moving average. With demand...
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The Trouble With Case Shiller, Again
The Case Shiller housing price index was released this morning and, as usual, it’s getting lots of media attention. I have no problem with that, except for one minor detail. It is a worthless and misleading indicator of current housing market conditions. Back in 2010 I wrote a public article called The Trouble With...
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Correction Now or Never (Well, not never, but you get the idea)
The rally has stalled and time counts suggest that a correction is due, but centered moving average projections still point higher. Which should get more weight?
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Panic On Claims Not Supported
OK, so the market doesn't like the claims number, which missed anal cyst's estimates by a wide margin. Let's look at the facts.
Not seasonally adjusted, in other words, actual, claims rose by 102,000. Continuing claims wk ended 12/31 up by 361,000. Ho...
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Chart of previous gold panics; Sinclair loosely estimates next at $2100
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/GoldPanicPeriods.pdf
Sinclair links ContraryInvestor
Excerpt:
For now, the thinking that gold’s break of the 200 day moving average is the sure sign of bull market death is white noise. ...gold ...
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SPX and NDX Update: Market Appears Poised to Break Recent Lows
The market continues to try to convince us that it's strong, as it wallows around just below the 200 day moving average and a bevy of resistance lines.
I remain convinced that there is much more downside than upside left in this market over the m...
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About Your "Guaranteed" Santa Claus Rally….
Will Santa Claus arrive in time to deliver his usual year end rally, or has he decided to trim his largesse to Wall Street this year and instead deliver lumps of coal to Bernanke, Geithner & Co.?A lot of punters are awfully confident that Santa Cla...
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No Truth Coming From Mortgage Bankers Ass.
Apparently the MBAss (Mortgage Bankers Association) didn’t like the fact that someone in the financial blogo-wackosphere actually had the temerity to make use of real, hard data, that they hadn’t massaged. Now, not only do they not report the actual index level of their seasonally smoothed applications indexes, the charts of the not seasonally...
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Monday Morning Outlook: Despite Technical Feats, Bulls Remain at the Mercy of Europe
Monday Morning Outlook: Despite Technical Feats, Bulls Remain at the Mercy of Europe
All eyes will be on the euro zone as EU leaders convene over the region's fiscal future
by Todd Salamone 10/22/2011 10:28 AM
U.S. stocks extended their upward momentu...
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The Real Meaning Of Twistness
The composite liquidity indicator declined in the week ended October 12 for the third consecutive week, slightly penetrating the 39 week moving average. The growth rate has slowed dramatically versus 2010, while the supply of paper absorbing liquidity, in particular Treasuries, has continued to soar. In recent weeks, the weakness has only been expressed...
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 414,000
Thursday, September 08, 2011
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 414,000
by CalculatedRisk on 9/08/2011 08:30:00 AM
The DOL reports:
In the week ending September 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 414,000, a...
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Housing Time Bomb Goes Tick Tock Tick Tock
A couple of data points reported today marked a tick and a tock on the housing market clock. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications Index release was weak but not explosive. The FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) monthly data on home sale prices was up, but meaningless. The FHFA data is after the fact price...
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Durable Goods Devil In The Details And The Big Picture
“Durable Goods Orders Rise 4%,” blared the headlines this morning. There was just one minor problem with that. It was not true. It represented the seasonally adjusted, massaged, and manipulated number, which bears no semblance to reality. The mainstream media always reports just the seasonal hocus pocus while ignoring the actual number. That actual...
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“Not Bad” Economic News Not So Good Either
This article was originally sent as a Wall Street Examiner Email Bulletin, yesterday. The economic news has been better in recent days, that is if you confine yourself to reading the stories in the mainstream media. Beneath the surface, the data reveals a subtle, not so obvious deterioration. It can not be seen in...
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Hussman – The Next Recession is Here. Now.
It's Bear Time:
"Last week, I reviewed the rapidly deteriorating condition of our Recession Warning Composite . While year-over-year GDP growth has dropped to just 1.6% - a rate that has been followed by a new recession in 10 of the 12 times it has oc...
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Special Update: Daily Growth Index Breaks Positive
On August 3, 2011 our Daily Growth Index went into growth territory for the first time in 566 days -- ending the longest consecutive string of contraction-days that we have ever experienced. Furthermore, the rise off of the record lows set as recen...
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Housing Indicators Show Lower Seasonal Peak
Two housing market indicators released over the last two days suggest that the market is making a seasonal peak at a weaker level than last year, but that the rate of decline is slowing. Mortgage purchase applications have been slipping in June following a small decline in the week ended June 17. They remain...
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Federal Tax Receipts Show Economy Grinding To A Halt
This post is an abridged excerpt from the June 16 Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury update. Click here to try the service risk free for 30 days and get this week’s complete Treasury and Fed reports and all updates, along with other weekly and monthly reports essential for understanding where the markets and...
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Weekly Unemployment Claims: An Unexpected Rise and Upward Revisions
June 9, 2011
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. Claims rose 1,000 from an upward revision of the previous week, but the 4-week moving average declined by 2,750.
Today's seasonally adjusted n...
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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down Less Than Expected
June 2, 2011
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. Claims fell 6,000 from a 4,000 upward revision of the previous week, and the 4-week moving average declined by 14,000, also from an upward revisi...
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Moving Averages: May Month-End Preview
May 31, 2011
http://dshort.com/charts/timing/monthly-timing-signals-preview-tn.gif Here is a preview of the monthly moving averages before the market opens on the last business day of the month. All three S&P 500 monthly moving averages are giving ...
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The S&P 500: Up Day, Down Week, But Above the 50-Day Moving Average
May 27, 2011
The S&P 500 closed up 0.41% for the day, down 0.16% for the week, but just above the 50-day moving average. The index is 96.8% above the March 2009 closing low but 15.0% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007. Below are two c...
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Weakened in April
May 23, 2011 Monthly Update
Here's the lead from today's The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) release for April.
The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to -0.12 in April from +0.08 in March, turning negative ...
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Weakened in April
May 23, 2011 Monthly Update
Here's the lead from today's The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) release for April.
The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to -0.12 in April from +0.08 in March, turning negative ...
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SPX and NDX Update: This Week Lower, But How Low?
The market continues to try to convince us that it's strong, as it wallows around just below the 200 day moving average and a bevy of resistance lines. Deciphering the shortest term counts is quite challenging right now, due...
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