Tag Archive for Market Participants

The Markets Are About to Tell You Something

Most people seem to have a hard time understanding why the markets do what they do.

The only reason I don’t is that I’ve been trading professionally for 30 years.

Not that I “got it” when I started out. I didn’t. I had to learn. And I learned much of what I know the hard way. I made a lot of mistakes. I studied my mistakes, I still do, just as much as I study what moves markets and what I get right.

I’m always learning. That’s because everything changes. You have to always take in new data, mesh it with recent data, layer it over the past, and not ever think you know for sure what’s going to happen.

So, how do you do it? How do you understand what’s going on with different markets?

Here’s how I do it (and get it right a lot)…

It’s First and Foremost About the “Big Picture”

I synthesize all the big goings-on, all the headline market-moving news and data points, and I watch and “listen” to how the markets react.

Money moves markets, but psychology moves money.

Markets are living things. They have feelings; their reactions are a direct reflection of the psychological impact reflected in the buying and selling of traders (first) and investors (distantly second) to the goings-on that participants believe will affect the decision-making of other market participants.

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The Fed’s Con Appears To Be Working But The Curtain Is Rising On The Third Act

In today’s conomic news, the mainstream media focused on the disappointment surrounding the FOMC Minutes, the massaged and sanitized fairy tale about what the participants said at last month’s FOMC confab. The market was shocked! SHOCKED! that most of the members saw no need for additional QE, unless things got worse. I had concluded that…

Ring in the Holidays!

While market robots find ways to make the most options contracts expire worthless today, allow me to bring you some early holiday cheer, a new holiday carol to share with friends and family! I have bet that the Santa Rally won’t materialize this year. One factor I didn’t mention is liquidity: we are soon likely…

If Fed Twists, It Won’t Be Like It Did Last Summer

The following is the summary lead-in to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Fed Report. The subscriber link to the full report is below. US banking system measures were mixed last week, allowing the composite macroliquidity index to inch to a new high. The Treasury market continues to act as a black hole absorbing all…