I’m struggling to find a different way to say the same thing again… Ah, the hell with it. The 10-12 month cycle projection is...
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Radio Free Wall Street
Posts Tagged ‘ Liquidity ’
Employment, Taxes, and War
Russ Winter of Winter (Economic and Market) Watch and the Wall Street Examiner’s Lee Adler discuss employment and economic maladjustments caused by the tax code stimulus programs, leading to booms followed by busts. Does it matter in the face of a coming liquidity bomb? And Russ thinks that all signs point to war with...
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Liquidity Composite Still Bullish
Liquidity indicators were mixed last week, but overall they remain firm, with trend indications split between bullish and neutral.
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Bulls In Clover While TBAC Is Smoking Dope As Usual
The Treasury market panic continued this week, with yields heading for new lows, thanks partly to a return of central banks to the table at a modest level, but mostly due to a ratcheting up of public buying. Bond fund inflows hit a record last week. It’s sheer panic. Bedlam. The panic atmosphere has...
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Market Fueled By Huge Rumored ECB Print Job And Corporate Fortress BS
Liquidity indicators backed off slightly from their recent strength last week, but overall they remain firm. I see no reason to expect either a big selloff or a big move higher in either stock or bond prices. The rangebound behavior of the markets shouldn’t change, except for one thing. The rumors are that the...
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The Mighty Ben
Treasury yields reached the top of the recent range and appeared headed for a breakout when along came Ben, with his mighty arms outstretched he lifts up the playing field and tilts it, and back down yields went, in spite of the big week of Treasury auctions and the market facing a big wad...
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What Have We Learned in the Past 13 Years?
We have learned nothing since 1999 except the Central State and Central Bank will intervene in the market to bend price and risk to serve the Status Quo.
If we learn nothing, then we deserve to lose. This is not a popular concept in America a...
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Tomorrow Is A Big Day – Why Fed Should Not Act
Tomorrow is a big day, with the FOMC announcement and the Fed revealing what it wants you to think about what it thinks it’s going to think it wants you to think. Or something like that. This Fed “tranparency” thing has been covered to death in the mainstream media. I think it’s another utter...
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Treasury’s 4 Week Bill To Be $5 Billion Less Than Forecast
The 4 week bill is announced at $30 billion, which is $5 billion less than forecast. On the week bill auction sizes total $13 billion below forecast, reflecting the strength of tax collections. CUSIP: 912795Z38Term and Type: 4-Week BillOffering Amount: $30,000,000,000Auction Date: 01/24/2012Issue Date: 01/26/2012Maturity Date: 02/23/2012PDF version of the announcementXML version of the...
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Liquidity Is Bullish Is All
Those who don’t know me well have sometimes accused me of being a permabear. Those of you who do know me via these reports know that I always strive to be just like Faux News, “fair and balanced.” I think this week’s report exemplifies that high ideal. It’s as bullish as I’ve ever been,...
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Hints of Sea Change In Treasury Market
Treasury yields fell to a key resistance level, and then rebounded sharply to break a 6 month downtrend line this week. It’s too early to call a turn, but the fact that it happened during a week when Treasury supply was non-existent—actually there was a paydown—and when foreign central banks showed up and actually...
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Scam after Scam Liquidity Bubble
Mortgage scams, the end of the rule of law, and official government liquidity bubbles create Soviet style markets that are impossible to trade. Russ Winter of Winter (Economic and Market) Watch, ML-Implode.com’s Aaron Krowne, and the Wall Street Examiner’s Lee Adler discuss the ramifications. This is a subscriber only podcast. If you are not...
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European Panic Sweeps 700 Pound Gorilla Under The Rug
The Treasury rally got some help this week from a surge in Federal Withholding Tax collections that is helping to keep new supply down. Whereas new supply had been exceeding TBAC estimates for the past couple of months, it has come back in line with estimates, and could be reduced even further in the...
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Panic On Claims Not Supported
OK, so the market doesn't like the claims number, which missed anal cyst's estimates by a wide margin. Let's look at the facts.
Not seasonally adjusted, in other words, actual, claims rose by 102,000. Continuing claims wk ended 12/31 up by 361,000. Ho...
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Fed Transparent Only If The “Facts” Are Bullish
Liquidity indications have remained neutral over the two weeks since I last updated this report. Panic outflows from Europe boosting theUSsystem seem to have taken a breather, or been covered up, in the wake of the massive ECB liquidity operation just before Christmas. However, other indicators which had been bearish such as bank purchases...
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Hildebrand Affair – Bad All Around
Following up on Bruce Krasting's Kashya Hildebrand Speaks – Sinks Hubby? Hildebrand Affair - Bad All Around By Ilene Recall: Philipp Hildebrand, chief of the Swiss National Bank, denied wrongdoing on Thursday and claimed he had no intention of resigning over the trades. According to Mr. Hildebrand, his former currency...
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Huge Surge in Withholding Taxes Shows How Great Wall Street Is
Treasury supply is moderating as a result of a surge in Federal Withholding Tax collections in the second half of December. I suspect that this is a one time event due to Wall Street doling out much larger bonuses than last year, thanks to the wonderful job its bankers have done in guiding our...
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Different Look At ISM, Bullish But Weaker Than ’09 and ’10
This is a composite of the ISM Manufacturing and Non Manufacturing New Orders indexes (not the ISM Composite). I have backed out the seasonal adjustment hocus pocus and weighted the index according to the relative weighting of manufacturing and service...
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Mortgage Application Searches Fall To Record Lows
Google searches for "mortgage applications" plunged to a 5 year low in December.
View full report in Google Insights for Search
According to researchers at the NY Fed, " Recent academic research finds that Internet search data can forecast the c...
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Not Too Bearish, Not Too Bullish, But Certainly Not Just Right
The mad panic into Treasuries suddenly stopped this week. 1.80 on the 10 year yield looks like a floor. The question now is whether there’s enough follow through selling to break the major downtrend line which is now around 2.03. Wouldn’t it be ironic if this week’s massive ECB Long Term Refinancing Operation was...
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What today’s Massive ECB Liquidity Operation Really Means
Early today 523 banks requested an unprecedented €489 billion ($640 billion) in super-cheap funding from the European Central Bank.
But the massive lending operation has garnered only a tepid response from markets, with short-term government bond y...
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Fed Finally Settles First Round Of MBS Offsetting Other Negatives in Liquidity
Liquidity indications were neutral this week, thanks to ongoing panic inflows of cash from Europe, as well as the fact that the Fed finally started settling the MBS purchase commitments that have been building up, but had gone unsettled since October. These positive flows offset the negatives of bank and FCB selling of Treasuries....
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The Last Ponzi Game
This is an extended excerpt from the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury Report, a companion report to the Fed Report to be posted later this weekend. Subscriber link to the complete report is at the end of the excerpt. A heavy Treasury auction schedule with a big settlement on Thursday was enough to...
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Liquidity Stagnant as Fed Sits on Hands, US Market Health Dependent On European Bank Diarrhea
Liquidity indications were mixed last week, with the Fed still not doing much while foreign central banks were net sellers (see Treasury update). Commercial banks started dumping Treasuries again, but their non-Treasury/non-GSE trading accounts did uptick against a bearish trend. The big plus was again bank inflows which surged massively. Meanwhile the FOMC statement...
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Waiting For The Fed Report?
So am I. I was hoping to get it posted tonight, but the economic chart service I use is having “issues.” As a result the ETA for this report now looks to be tomorrow afternoon. I apologize for the delay. I can tell you that the composite liquidity indicator continues to mark time. It...
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Treasury 4-Week Bill A Huge $11 Billion Above Forecast
CUSIP: 9127952Y6Term and Type: 4-Week BillOffering Amount: $35,000,000,000Auction Date: 12/13/2011Issue Date: 12/15/2011Maturity Date: 01/12/2012PDF version of the announcementXML version of the announcement
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Market Correlation Data Proves Fed Inflation Paradigm Is Bunk
Correlation data between oil and the stock market suggests the Fed's inflation and recession-fighting paradigm is bunk. The Fed is wearing blinders, and looks set to run the economy into a ditch because of it.
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On Boeing – Where’s the money?
There was a period of time when I got stuck working on deal-teams that were trying to finance airlines. In corporate finance you usually work on a deal until it happens and then you move onto something different. Not the case with airline finance. Thes...
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SPX Update: Giving the Bulls Some Airtime
"Everybody knows that the dice are loaded, everybody rolls with their fingers crossed. Everybody knows the war is over, everybody knows the good guys lost. Everybody knows the fight was fixed, the poor stay poor and the rich get rich. That's how it g...
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