Here are today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Herd ’
Liquidity Composite Still Bullish
Liquidity indicators were mixed last week, but overall they remain firm, with trend indications split between bullish and neutral. Tweet
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Market Fueled By Huge Rumored ECB Print Job And Corporate Fortress BS
Liquidity indicators backed off slightly from their recent strength last week, but overall they remain firm. I see no reason to expect either a big selloff or a big move higher in either stock or bond prices. The rangebound behavior of the markets shouldn’t change, except for one thing. The rumors are that the...
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Treasury’s 4 Week Bill To Be $5 Billion Less Than Forecast
The 4 week bill is announced at $30 billion, which is $5 billion less than forecast. On the week bill auction sizes total $13 billion below forecast, reflecting the strength of tax collections. CUSIP: 912795Z38Term and Type: 4-Week BillOffering Amount: $30,000,000,000Auction Date: 01/24/2012Issue Date: 01/26/2012Maturity Date: 02/23/2012PDF version of the announcementXML version of the...
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Hints of Sea Change In Treasury Market
Treasury yields fell to a key resistance level, and then rebounded sharply to break a 6 month downtrend line this week. It’s too early to call a turn, but the fact that it happened during a week when Treasury supply was non-existent—actually there was a paydown—and when foreign central banks showed up and actually...
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Casino of The Absurd
Deposit flows into US banking system (apparently from EU) continue at shocking levels. In the liquidity model of the market, there is no way the markets can decline as long as this continues. Meanwhile, the Fed continues to quietly tap the brakes, without explanation or comment, while the US money supply explodes. The Fed...
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Panic On Claims Not Supported
OK, so the market doesn't like the claims number, which missed anal cyst's estimates by a wide margin. Let's look at the facts.
Not seasonally adjusted, in other words, actual, claims rose by 102,000. Continuing claims wk ended 12/31 up by 361,000. Ho...
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Huge Surge in Withholding Taxes Shows How Great Wall Street Is
Treasury supply is moderating as a result of a surge in Federal Withholding Tax collections in the second half of December. I suspect that this is a one time event due to Wall Street doling out much larger bonuses than last year, thanks to the wonderful job its bankers have done in guiding our...
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Different Look At ISM, Bullish But Weaker Than ’09 and ’10
This is a composite of the ISM Manufacturing and Non Manufacturing New Orders indexes (not the ISM Composite). I have backed out the seasonal adjustment hocus pocus and weighted the index according to the relative weighting of manufacturing and service...
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Mortgage Application Searches Fall To Record Lows
Google searches for "mortgage applications" plunged to a 5 year low in December.
View full report in Google Insights for Search
According to researchers at the NY Fed, " Recent academic research finds that Internet search data can forecast the c...
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Not Too Bearish, Not Too Bullish, But Certainly Not Just Right
The mad panic into Treasuries suddenly stopped this week. 1.80 on the 10 year yield looks like a floor. The question now is whether there’s enough follow through selling to break the major downtrend line which is now around 2.03. Wouldn’t it be ironic if this week’s massive ECB Long Term Refinancing Operation was...
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Liquidity Stagnant as Fed Sits on Hands, US Market Health Dependent On European Bank Diarrhea
Liquidity indications were mixed last week, with the Fed still not doing much while foreign central banks were net sellers (see Treasury update). Commercial banks started dumping Treasuries again, but their non-Treasury/non-GSE trading accounts did uptick against a bearish trend. The big plus was again bank inflows which surged massively. Meanwhile the FOMC statement...
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Waiting For The Fed Report?
So am I. I was hoping to get it posted tonight, but the economic chart service I use is having “issues.” As a result the ETA for this report now looks to be tomorrow afternoon. I apologize for the delay. I can tell you that the composite liquidity indicator continues to mark time. It...
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Treasury 4-Week Bill A Huge $11 Billion Above Forecast
CUSIP: 9127952Y6Term and Type: 4-Week BillOffering Amount: $35,000,000,000Auction Date: 12/13/2011Issue Date: 12/15/2011Maturity Date: 01/12/2012PDF version of the announcementXML version of the announcement
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TEOTWAKI Can Not Be Ruled Out
Withholding tax data suggests that we may soon see weaker economic data. That would argue for lower yields and lower stock prices. Meanwhile, foreign central banks (FCBs) sold Treasuries last week, turning away from the record accumulation of recent weeks. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers) including 19...
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Liquidity Increase Too Little To Boost Markets
Liquidity indications were mixed this week, with the Fed still not doing much but bank inflows ballooning. This has been the biggest reason the markets haven’t collapsed. But is this sustainable? Tweet
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Does Treasury Market Turkey for Bulls Mean Stock Market Turkey for Bears?
Foreign central bank (FCB) buying of Treasuries was again heavy this week, two weeks after hitting a record level. Their buying binge of recent weeks pumped plenty of cash into US markets. That normally leads to a stock market rally, but not this time. Meanwhile, there’s evidence that withholding tax collections are weakening versus...
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Market Liquidity Flat With Hints of Weakening Ahead
The composite liquidity indicator fell sharply last week. There was some distortion to the indicator the previous week when the Fed’s SOMA fell due to transactions outside dealer channels, but that was reversed in the latest data. Bank inflows were flat. FCB buying dropped back sharply from a record rise. Bank non-Treasury trading accounts...
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The Big Withdrawal and Other Liquidity Facts
Earlier I posted this piece on the facts that we know about the big withdrawal from the Fed last week and the atypical Fed actions it appeared to trigger. Here’s more of the story, along with the behavior of other related indicators along with what their actions might mean for the markets. Tweet
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Rising Cesspool Lifts All Floaters
Europe slid down a Greece slope and the MF’er Corzine blindsided investors, but a record increase in foreign central bank buying and a renewed Treasury buying panic flooded the US markets with liquidity, lifting all the stinkers in the US bowl. Tweet
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Can Only Have One, Not The Other
With liquidity flat, one market can rally only at the expense of another. Last week it was again the stock market’s turn. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). including 86 pages of charts and clear, cutting edge analysis that you can use to gain an edge in the...
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The Treasury Market Will Collapse
Unless foreign central banks step back up to the plate, either the Treasury market will collapse, or the stock market rally will fizzle, or both. Tweet
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Does Ben See The QE Trap?
In recent days the trial balloons have been floating up fast and furious as various Fedheads talk about the benefits of or the need for more QE. The market is frontrunning it. Bernanke has the players well trained. But inherent in the next round of QE is a death trap. Does Bernanke recognize that....
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4 Signs To Look For In Treasuries, The Dollar, and Federal Tax Collections, and FCBs
Stocks rallied and Treasuries held their own in the past week as the market faced no pressure from new Treasury supply, and foreign central banks (FCBs) took a break from their recent pattern of dumping their Treasury holdings. This report tells what to look for next week that will tell us what the future...
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The Real Meaning Of Twistness
The composite liquidity indicator declined in the week ended October 12 for the third consecutive week, slightly penetrating the 39 week moving average. The growth rate has slowed dramatically versus 2010, while the supply of paper absorbing liquidity, in particular Treasuries, has continued to soar. In recent weeks, the weakness has only been expressed...
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Happy Columbus Day Treasury Market
Foreign central bank dumping of Treasuries and Agencies continued this week, although not at the frenetic pace of the past two weeks. This activity may be beginning to take a toll on the Treasury market, where yields are showing signs of possibly having bottomed. Treasury supply was light with no net new supply settling...
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Fed to Print $16 Billion
Fed will print $16 billion in the next month, up a crappy, measly, cheesy, chintzy $2 billion from last month, to account for the spected increase in MBS paydowns. http://www.ny.frb.or...n_schedule.html Those paydowns should be a bit bigger than that, ...
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Why Are The Primary Dealers Dumping Corporates?
Why are the PDs dumping corporates again? I thought the corps were in such great shape, strong balance sheets and all that. Why didn't they buy them during the recently departed cyclical stock bull and what does this imply about the future performance ...
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Housing Data Paints Bleak Picture
Housing data for this month suggests that the usual seasonal uptick in prices has come to an end at a lower high than last year. Contracts are falling out at record rates as insolvent banks blow up deal after deal in the mortgage process. On the other hand, there are lots of cash buyers...
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