A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Herd ’
Facebook Existential Moment Begins With Analysts’ $30-$50 Spread – Bloomberg
BloombergFacebook Existential Moment Begins With Analysts' $30-$50 SpreadBloombergAnalysts who broke away from the herd and told investors to avoid Facebook Inc. (FB), the biggest initial public offering ever by a technology company, are looking li...
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Treasuries Vacuuming Up All Available Liquidity
The Treasury had a light calendar last week. The market faced a big Treasury settlement on Tuesday but from then until the big end of month settlement of new paper, supply pressure wasn’t, and won’t be, a problem. With fear driving waves of capital into the Treasuries, a downside breakout in yields, and an...
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Market’s Liquidity Indicators Begin To Tilt Bearish – With Free Excerpt
The composite liquidity indicator downticked last week on small declines in most of its components. We know that the downtick in the Fed’s pumping to Primary Dealers is temporary, but the weakening in other indicators may not be. Over the course of this latest surge, most of the cash has been targeted at the...
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Money Market and Mutual Fund Flows Charts Updated
Equity Mutual Fund Flows The permanent page for these charts is Mutual Fund and Money Market Fund Flows Charts. The charts will be updated there regularly. April projected based on weekly figures. While not a primary liquidity driver, this chart is useful as a peripheral market indicator. It has begun to turn intermediate term bearish...
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Market Liquidity Trend Still Bullish, But Only Treasuries Get The Benefit
The composite liquidity indicator rose slightly last week, on slight increases on most of its components. The uptrend in the indicator has continued at a steady pace since it broke out in March. Over the course of this latest surge, most of the cash has been targeted at the Treasury market, with stocks getting...
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Why U.S. house prices won’t recover – MarketWatch
The fact that this writer is still relying on the Case Chiller shows that he’s a bit clueless, but I found it interesting that prices were back to 1955, 1986 and 1895 levels in real terms. That seems like an argument to be bullish on house prices, not bearish. By Jack Hough When will...
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WSJ Reports on Bidding Wars in the Housing Market- Video
The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos interviews Redfin CEO on the current housing market. Surprise surprise! Bidding wars. Comparative Home Sales Chart Related story- Shiller Unaware Bernankinflation Winning Get regular updates on the US housing market, and stay up to date with the machinations of the Fed, Treasury, Primary Dealers and foreign central...
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My Quick Take On the Housing Data
Some tweets on the housing data.
Lee Adler @Lee_Adler actual inventory to sales ratio at 4.5 lowest since Aug 05. http://pbckt.com/pA.RnqWlY
Lee Adler @Lee_Adler NSA inventory revised down each month Nov to Feb. Completed units revised dow...
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Good For Nothing $50 Billion Gift To Dealers Wasted
The markets got a gift in the week just ended, but they couldn’t do much with it. The Treasury paid down a whopping $50 billion in expiring short term bills on Thursday. That’s cash that came back to holders of the paper, many of whom were Primary Dealers. They used some of it to...
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Builder Indexes Down In April, But Trend Is Still Up
The dark and dirty job of pointing out that the NAHB Housing Market Index present conditions index is up 11 points versus last April and traffic is up 5 points falls to me, I guess. The mainstream media and the NAHB itself has already widely reported only the bad news that April was down versus...
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Markets Now On Their Own, Almost, But Major Top At Least 6 Months Away
The cash generated by the ECB’s second big LTRO operation has now settled in to wherever its holders wanted to park it so we’re entering a whole new world where the ECB sits on its hands, and the Fed keeps its balance sheet stable. The overwhelming force that the central banks had been applying...
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New House Sales Show Continued Improvement
While the media was touting a miss on consensus expectations, and Bloomberg posted an outright lie on Twitter, the actual unadjusted data did show a big improvement over the year ago performance.
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Treasury Yield Breakout? Not So Fast!
The 10 year yield arrived at the top of the base pattern at 2.40 this week. At that point the stock market mysteriously got the shakes and enough cash was freed up to buy enough Treasuries to prevent a major trend breakout in yields. The market sentinels deep in the bowels of the Treasury...
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As Good As It Gets No More, Treasuries Puke
Treasury supply was in line with the TBAC forecast in the week just completed, but there are signs in weak tax withholding that suggest possible surprise increases in supply that the market could ill afford at the moment. The Fed met a big Treasury issuance on March 15 with a big settlement of the...
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Europe’s Pain Is US’s Gain
The cash generated by the ECB’s second big LTRO operation began to find its level throughout the world financial system last week, but it will take another week for the various measurements of those levels to show up in the lagging data, and several more weeks or months for the full effects to be...
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Demand For Treasuries Has Peaked
Treasury supply was in line with the TBAC forecast in the week just completed, and it should again be in line next week. The market has had help in absorbing new supply from the ECB’s LTRO cash, allowing the Fed to stay on the sideline. Based on the pattern the Fed has established, it...
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Has As Good As It Gets Already Run Its Course?
Apparently the cash generated by the ECB’s second big LTRO operation has yet to be deployed in the markets, which leads us to the possibility that the boat was already overloaded on the buy side (See Treasury report). But that cash is out there, and once the profit taking dries up, the composite liquidity...
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If The Guilty (Mortgage Mafia) Are Never Punished, Housing Will Never Recover
The following is the executive summary of the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Housing Update. The complete report with illustrative charts and analysis is available to subscribers here. Housing data continues to be mixed. Lagging closed sales data shows prices still declining. However, the most current sales data represents January closings, which were mostly...
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Fed Sits Tight As The World Awaits The Appearance of El Toro Grande
Wednesday is the big day as the ECB reintroduces El Toro (LTRO) Grande otherwise known as the big Long Term Refinancing Operation. Everybody, and I mean everybody, expects a flood of liquidity into the markets, with consensus estimates of $500 billion in fresh cash being pumped into the European banking system. Given that 7...
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Treasury 49-Day Bill Evidence of Growing Tax Shortfall
Tax receipts are not keeping up with the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) forecast.
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The Grand Game of Perception Management
The economy will expand if you believe it is expanding--because you'll be "animal spirited" into buying a lot of stuff on credit that you can't afford.
It all boils down to perception--that's the insight at the heart of the Grand Game of Percept...
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Monetary and Liquidity Flows Level Out Enough To Allow Minor Corrections
Liquidity indicators were mostly weaker last week. I have downgraded the intermediate trend on 2 of them from Bullish to Neutral. The majority are now rated neutral. This might mean that conditions are more conducive to a correction in both stocks and bonds, but I see no reason yet to expect an extended decline.
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Treasury Running Out of Cash, Announces 64-Day CMB In Addition To Usual Weekly Bill Offerings
Apparently seeing revenues falling well short of forecasts, the US Treasury today announced a surprise $20 billion Cash Management Bill (CMB). This bill was not included in the TBAC (Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee) forecast schedule posted just last week. The simultaneously announced regular 6 month bill was $1 billion above the TBAC forecast. Here...
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Liquidity Composite Still Bullish
Liquidity indicators were mixed last week, but overall they remain firm, with trend indications split between bullish and neutral.
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Market Fueled By Huge Rumored ECB Print Job And Corporate Fortress BS
Liquidity indicators backed off slightly from their recent strength last week, but overall they remain firm. I see no reason to expect either a big selloff or a big move higher in either stock or bond prices. The rangebound behavior of the markets shouldn’t change, except for one thing. The rumors are that the...
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Treasury’s 4 Week Bill To Be $5 Billion Less Than Forecast
The 4 week bill is announced at $30 billion, which is $5 billion less than forecast. On the week bill auction sizes total $13 billion below forecast, reflecting the strength of tax collections. CUSIP: 912795Z38Term and Type: 4-Week BillOffering Amount: $30,000,000,000Auction Date: 01/24/2012Issue Date: 01/26/2012Maturity Date: 02/23/2012PDF version of the announcementXML version of the...
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Hints of Sea Change In Treasury Market
Treasury yields fell to a key resistance level, and then rebounded sharply to break a 6 month downtrend line this week. It’s too early to call a turn, but the fact that it happened during a week when Treasury supply was non-existent—actually there was a paydown—and when foreign central banks showed up and actually...
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Casino of The Absurd
Deposit flows into US banking system (apparently from EU) continue at shocking levels. In the liquidity model of the market, there is no way the markets can decline as long as this continues. Meanwhile, the Fed continues to quietly tap the brakes, without explanation or comment, while the US money supply explodes. The Fed...
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Panic On Claims Not Supported
OK, so the market doesn't like the claims number, which missed anal cyst's estimates by a wide margin. Let's look at the facts.
Not seasonally adjusted, in other words, actual, claims rose by 102,000. Continuing claims wk ended 12/31 up by 361,000. Ho...
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Huge Surge in Withholding Taxes Shows How Great Wall Street Is
Treasury supply is moderating as a result of a surge in Federal Withholding Tax collections in the second half of December. I suspect that this is a one time event due to Wall Street doling out much larger bonuses than last year, thanks to the wonderful job its bankers have done in guiding our...
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