A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Guess ’
What Did JP Morgan Get Itself Into? | Marketplace.org
JP Morgan’s chief investment office earned $5 billion over the past three years. Today, the New York Times reports an estimated loss on the “London Whale” trade of $3 billion… …That’s scary enough. But if you really want Fright Night-type chills, consider this: no one knows how much JP Morgan could still lose, because...
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AdlerConobot Takes On Conomists’ Consensual Sexpectations
Job one for the US Treasury and its Primary Dealer enforcers is to keep yields low during weeks when the Treasury has a big load of notes and bonds to sell. Next week is one of those weeks, so the casino owners and managers will do what they can to gin up reasons for...
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Nonfarm payrolls should fall by 377,000 (But they won’t)
Let’s play “guess the nonfarm payrolls.” After all, our guess is as good as the conomists’, whose forecasts nicely fit a random distribution of hits and misses month in and month out. My guess? The headline non farm payrolls number would be reported as a drop of 337,000 tomorrow if you believe the withholding...
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Bulls finally pause,bears terrified to go short
Could be an historic turn at these levels,but until the SPX cracks 1285-1290 I will guess bulls are still in control.
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Treasuries fly,bulls cry
I guess 1.9% TNX yield looks better than losing 50% or more of your portfolio when reality sets in.
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Economics and genealogical research
I guess most people already know something I learned today. I did a few minutes of genealogical research on a free website where they have old census data posted and learned that, at least in the 1920 and 1930 censuses, my ancestors lived in household...
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Yes, Virgina, there is a Santa
Ah well. Just had to say this: I own a copy of this old made-for-tv flick titled "Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus." Stars Charles Bronson and Ed Asner and some little kid who is outstanding.
The big studios still refuse to re-release the orginal ...
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Market Opening Outlook 11/3/11
It was another typical overnight as the Spoos traded in a “tight” 25 point range, down in Asia, up in Europe. Who was it that said that Europeans were dour? Apparently, they’re the cock eyed optimists. Just what are they looking at? In technical terms the 5 day cycle remains in an up phase....
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The 10 Crash Commandments
I been in this game for years, it made me a animal
There's rules to this s**t, I wrote me a manual
A step by step booklet for you to get
your game on track, not your wig pushed back
The Ten Crack Commandments, Notorious B.I.G.
I don't try...
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Gold pounded for….30 cents?
I guess those rumors are a tempest in a teapot (so far).
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400 Analysts and Economists Are Bullish….
400 Analysts and Economists Are Bullish. But Before You Join Them, See This Chart
5/4/2011 5:30:00 PM
Please read these financial news headlines and then take a guess as to when they were published:
IMF predicts an energet...
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What Is The Source of Record Earnings?
Hey, its earnings season! Let’s look at the overall profits recovery, and see if we can figure out where all this earnings goodness is coming from together.
As the Chart of the Day (below) shows, S&P500 earnings have recovered from their harrowi...
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Japan’s "Three Mile Island"
I don’t expect sudden enlightenment on the part of the public or politicians. I expect they will do what is easy and what plays well on TV. The easy thing to do is to quash development of new reactors, one way or another.
As I say, it’s too ea...
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A Closer Look at Fed Propaganda: Even It Admits That It’s Clueless
A Closer Look at Fed Propaganda: Even It Admits That It's Clueless
"It felt that "resource slack" would prevent most companies from passing on cost increases. But it also admitted to not having a grip on the mechanisms of price increase!...
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A Treasury Bond is an act of Faith
From the Vanity Fair Article:
"A banking system is an act of faith: it survives only for as long as people believe it will. Two weeks earlier the collapse of Lehman Brothers had cast doubt on banks everywhere. Ireland’s banks had not been managed ...
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2011: Delinquencies and Distressed house sales
My guess is the overall delinquency rate has peaked, although I expect the delinquency rate to stay elevated.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/question-3-for-2011-delinquencies-and.
html
Distressed house sales: Foreclosure activity is very h...
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Goldman Jumps Shark
Hmmmm. Now that Goldman is bullish, guess that means everything is comin' up roses...
From the just distributed email to clients:
The US growth outlook has brightened significantly in recent weeks. As a result, we have raised our sights for 2011...
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Science: Interesting approach to GDP forecasting
Thoughts ahead of Q3 GDP
Friday's Q3 GDP numbers, writes The Automatic Earth blog (TAE) and CMI’s DShort (Consumer Metrics Institute), are not all that important. The “real" data won’t be known until well after the November 3 mid-term elections,...
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Underground economy is thriving
High taxes, bureaucratic red tape, cut-throat competition, etc. driving innovation in underground economy. Indeed, we’re becoming more Grecian all the time, throw in a taste of Brazil too. Bottom line, the higher the burden, the more incentive to ski...
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Feed Me Seymour Day
The 19 year joy stick Boyz are goosing the market today, and for undetermined reasons. The cognoscenti has an eye on one of the primary owners of trash, the Fed, for clues as to whether they will backstop the creation of Bubbles du jour.
My guess is that the Fed will throw the markets a...
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What Caused The Rally – Professional Edition Fed Report
We now know the proximate cause of this week’s stock market rally. The Fed closed on the purchase of $167 billion of MBS in the week ended Wednesday. This is by far a record infusion of permanent cash into the financial system. For those of who were short the market, it would have been...
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Preparing for the pullback
My wild guess that we are at the same spot we were at July 25 last year, few days after the lows. The market remained in that trading range for another 5 weeks, but the initial jump was already good enough to bring it to the point 3% below the top 3 weeks later.
I.e....
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Looming Inflation a Matter of Fact, or Faith?
I got this question this morning from a poster over on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Am I correct in stating that regardless of whether or not the new reserves that will be added once the FED purchases the GSE/MBS paper are utilized to increase fractional-reserve lending (at least initially), there would still be substantial...
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SPX, INDU, NDX Updates: Trying to Make Sense of the Mess
The charts are an absolute disaster right now. I've looked at roughly 20 million charts this weekend, but there are so many possibilities, it simply becomes confusing to try and cover them all. This update was a whole lotta work for very li...
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