Tag Archive for Gasoline Prices

Media Reports on Retail Sales Were Dead Wrong – Sales Were Strong

Retail Sales and Real Retail Sales ex Gasoline This report is excerpted from the permanent chart page for Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment indicators, updated June 13, 2012 Real retail sales, ex gasoline prices, and adjusted for inflation have been increasing at an annual rate of between 0 and 7.5% since 2010. The year to…

Consumer, Retail, Consumer Confidence, Stocks and Housing – Don’t Believe The Media Boilerplate Hype

This is an update of the permanent page of Retail, Consumer Confidence, Housing and Stock Price Charts which will be updated whenever new data is available. You can bookmark that page for future reference.  Updated June 6, 2012 Retail Sales and Real Retail Sales ex Gasoline Real retail sales, ex gasoline prices, and adjusted for inflation…

Lacker Becomes Second Fedhead to Say Rates Will Rise in 2013

Richmond Fed Prez Jeffrey Lacker became the second Fed district bank president to predict that the Fed would need to raise rates next year, ahead of the FOMC target of 2014.  Charles Plosser of the Philly Fed made a similar prediction yesterday.  The fact remains however that the Fed is way behind the curve in…

Consumer is Gassed Out

In the consumer economy, gasoline demand has strangely collapsed. I have always felt this was a solid indicator of consumer behavior, and still do.  At a core level I sense that in reality the consumer is MIA.  As you can see the normal seasonal pickup in driving  is barely registering. At the same time a combination of refining problems, high input costs,  and speculation has driven gasoline prices to the highest levels this time of year ever. This does not look like a good recipe for meaningful consumer spending, and the window for an Iranian shock is fast approaching. Per the Conference Board survey the consumer view of the job market can only be called shockingly dire. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also less positive. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 6.1 percent from 6.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased to 43.5 percent from 41.6 percent.