Here are today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Fcbs ’
Hit With Big Withdrawals, Fed Sells Assets, Borrows Cash
The Fed was hit with withdrawals of $83.3 billion last Wednesday, the largest withdrawals from its deposit accounts that were not associated with quarterly tax payments since February of 2009. $7 billion of that was the net cash transferred to the US Treasury from its note and bond sales less outlays. The Fed still...
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Foreign Central Banks Have Left the Building
Tracking foreign central bank (FCB) holdings of US Treasury and Agency (Fannie, Freddie, and minor government agencies) paper has been one of the most important lines of inquiry in my analysis of market liquidity for the past 9 years. This information is available virtually in real time each week in the Fed’s weekly H41...
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4 Signs To Look For In Treasuries, The Dollar, and Federal Tax Collections, and FCBs
Stocks rallied and Treasuries held their own in the past week as the market faced no pressure from new Treasury supply, and foreign central banks (FCBs) took a break from their recent pattern of dumping their Treasury holdings. This report tells what to look for next week that will tell us what the future...
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Not Merry Twistmas
Reposted from an email bulletin- I’m finally back up to speed after my trip back from my summer base in Canada to base camp FL. Yesterday I posted a Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Fed Report update. This is an excerpt from that report. The Fed’s security holdings rose in the week ended 10/12/11...
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Threads In A Foreboding Tapestry
Two weeks ago I began to report to subscribers of the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Fed Report that foreign central banks (FCBs) had begun to engage in unprecedented levels of disgorgement of their massive holdings of US Treasury and Agency paper. Prior to this year, the FCBs had typically absorbed the equivalent of...
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Checkmate
During QE2, the Fed’s purchases of Treasuries covered virtually 100% of new Treasury supply, freeing up cash that allowed the Primary Dealers (PDs) to speculate elsewhere. With the Fed now absorbing almost none of the new paper, the market faces an additional problem, and it is a huge one. Foreign central banks (FCBs) are...
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Kind Of Bearish
The following is the summary lead-in to this week’s Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury Update. The subscriber link to the full report is below. A massive wave of panic buying has sent Treasury yields plunging to record lows. Data shows foreign central banks were net sellers in recent weeks, continuing a trend of...
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Fed Gets To Skate On Thin Ice In April
Both banks and foreign central banks (FCBs) have normal buying cycles, and this week’s evidence suggests that both are just past the peak of those cycles. In addition, because of Japan’s predicament, FCB buying is for the foreseeable future likely to be well below the necessary levels to keep levitating stocks. Add to that...
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Financial System Warning Signs Abound- Professional Edition
The Fed deposited $21.6 billion in cash into Primary Dealer trading accounts in the holiday shortened week ended Friday. At the same time, FCBs pulled $2 billion out of the market pool. They aren’t cooperating with the Fed to the degree necessary to keep the champagne music machine blowing bubbles. Meanwhile banks built up...
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Fed and Friends Can Only Keep Bond Market Flat- Professional Edition
With both the Fed and FCBs buying longer Treasury paper the best they could do was to keep yields from rising. Everybody else it seems is selling bonds and chasing stocks. Tweet
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Bernanke’s Narcissistic Swill- Professional Edition
The Treasury began to pay off the weekly $25 billion in SFP CMBs this week resulting in a net paydown of $12 billion at Thursday’s bill settlements. That was a bullish influence on stocks as expected, but indirect bid data suggests that the FCBs weren’t all that aggressive in their bidding at the regular...
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Deficit Shrinkage and Negative Feedback- Professional Edition
Far from being the self sustaining recovery proclaimed by Dr. Burnwankie today, deficit shrinkage could start a negative feedback loop that will stymie the Fed. With FCBs still no shows would Treasuries still be able to benefit from a return to bad economic numbers like they did today? Click here to download complete report...
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Momo Follows POMO Till There’s No Mo
I_Am_Madness, on 07 January 2011 - 12:16 PM, said:
Doc,
Over the last 3 weeks and with all this pomo juice, S&P is only up 15 points. That's just a tad over 1%.
The meat of the move happened BEFORE the actually announcement between the August Lows and ...
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As The Fed Turns (and Twists) Professional Edition
The week just past saw more of the same trends that we have been seeing recently. Banks seem to be unable to buy any Treasuries at the auctions and FCBs seem unwilling. That has put the onus on the Primary Dealers to load up on the paper, which they have been doing. The only...
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Running Hot, But Where’s The Gain?- Professional Edition
Last week, conditions were favorable for a big move up in both stocks and bonds, but it didn’t happen. There was no new Treasury supply—in fact a paydown of $1 billion, and the Fed bought around $11 billion in Treasuries from the Primary Dealers. But the markets stalled. Apparently some friction is developing. I...
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All Good Binges Must Come To An End – Professional Edition
We had expected the FCBs to enter the slow side of their buying cycle in early September, and they did not disappoint. We were also interested to see whether the PDs would break the long term downtrend lines in their holdings, which they had reached the week before. They did not. In fact, they...
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Sneakin’ Out The Back, Doh! Professional Edition Fed Report
FCBs appeared to show up at the auctions this week, but they were apparently selling paper in the market even faster. This looks to me like an attempt to hoodwink the market by boosting the indirect bid, which all the media outlets are now following and reporting religiously, while quietly sneaking out the back...
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Fed Coy As Panic Boosts Treasuries – Professional Edition
The mortgage applications data released on Tuesday continues to cast doubt on the NARs data showing a recovery or stabilization in the housing market. I don’t question their data, but the MBAAs data and Zillow’s data do not support it. See http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2009/09/01/more-little-lies-and-big-spin-gains-or-blips The Treasury completed 3 bill auctions this week with buying at panic...
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It Gets Worse – Professional Edition Fed Report
The Treasury completed its weekly round of auctions today with a 70 day CMB rollover. The indirect bid, which had been strong at Monday’s auction, fell off the table at Tuesday’s 4 week bill auction, and at today’s CMB auction. The overall indirect bid was down for the third time in the past 4...
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Crisis Brewing- Professional Edition Fed Report
The Fed bought $9 billion worth of Treasuries and $1.5 billion of GSE paper, and it settled on a whopping $64.5 billion of forward MBS purchase contracts. All of this was just in time to help absorb $73 billion in new Treasury supply settling this week. The FCBs even chipped in. While they dumped...
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Spending a buck while making 65 cents – Professional Edition
The 4 week bill auction was again very strong, signaling no diminution of strong buying interest from FCBs and others. So the game can go on. It had better. The Treasury released its monthly statement for June late yesterday and it revealed that revenues covered only 70% of outlays, continuing a weakening trend that...
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Fed Pumps To No Avail, Yields Surge – Professional Edition
The Treasury finished off a busy week with a 70 day CMB auction that showed no sign of weakening in indirect bidding. That was true for the week as a whole. If the FCBs are backing off, that didn’t show up in this data. Perhaps they did some selling in the secondary market, which...
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Disabusing Popular Assumptions
There are a couple of assumptions floating around in certain quarters that I’d like to disabuse. One is that based on its recent statements and actions, the Fed is reflating. Another is that it will be successful, in fact too successful, resulting in high inflation. Another is that foreign central banks will be around...
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Mr. Bernanke, Tear Down This Ponzi Scheme – Professional Edition
FCBs dumped a massive amount of GSE paper this week, continuing a 10 week string of panic selling during which they have unloaded $148 billion of their GSE holdings. I had long warned that if the FCBs ever ended their subsidy of the US mortgage market, the financial system would collapse. When we look...
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Hey! Where’s My $10 Billion! Professional Edition Fed Report
That question arose from the fact that that amount disappeared from the Fed’s balance sheet last week in the line items covering loans to and equity investments in the broken AIG. The Fed’s balance sheet as it pertains to custodial accounts for FCBs also makes clear why the Fed was forced to announce yesterday...
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Looming Inflation a Matter of Fact, or Faith?
I got this question this morning from a poster over on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Am I correct in stating that regardless of whether or not the new reserves that will be added once the FED purchases the GSE/MBS paper are utilized to increase fractional-reserve lending (at least initially), there would still be substantial...
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Fed Puts US in the Breach, Again – Professional Edition
Today I got sick to my stomach when the Fed announced two more alphabet soup du jour programs. One program will involve the direct purchase of GSE and MBS paper by the Fed. that’s another $600 billion that the Fed will add to its books. This action was necessitated by the ending of the...
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Who’s Gonna Bail US out? Professional Edition
The title doesn’t have much to do with tonight’s market update, but it’s just that I keep thinking who IS going to bail US out now that the US government has embarked down the slippery slope of taking all the bad debt in the world on to itself and on to the backs of...
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