Posts Tagged ‘ Economists ’

Economists Surprised Again By Unemployment Claims, Should Not Have Been

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February 9, 2012
Economists Surprised Again By Unemployment Claims, Should Not Have Been

The mainstream media proclaimed an unexpected “beat” of the first time unemployment claims number today. The fake, seasonally fudged number dropped to 358,000 in the week ended February 4. According to Bloomberg, the consensus of economists’ expectations was for 370,000. Aside from the fact that whether economists get a forecast right or not seems...
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Our Counterfeit Economy

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February 1, 2012
Our Counterfeit Economy

The U.S. economy is in effect a counterfeit economy, living on money created from thin air that is unbacked by an equivalent productive expansion of surplus value. Yesterday we looked at counterfeiting and money printing and discovered they are on...
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CBO REPORT – OMG!

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January 31, 2012
CBO REPORT – OMG!

The Congregational Budget Office (CBO) is out with its annual report. It’s a blockbuster. This 165 page monster is filled with dozens of charts, graphs and detailed projections. It will be talked about for weeks. The report provides a dismal outloo...
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Bernanke’s Decision may lead the Planet into Financial Chaos

With its announcement this week that it will keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014, the Federal Reserve has put another large crack into the foundations underlying the US dollar. In a misguided attempt to provide clarity and transpa...
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SPX Update: A Discussion on QE3 and the Market’s Potential for Disappointment

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January 20, 2012
SPX Update:  A Discussion on QE3 and the Market’s Potential for Disappointment

Since "to QE3 or not to QE3" is once again the big question on investors minds, I'm going to share my thoughts on this before we get to the charts. The Federal Reserve Board meets next week, and as has become somethi...
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New CBO report – Lower (not increase) the early retirement age!

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January 15, 2012
New CBO report – Lower (not increase) the early retirement age!

At one point or another, all the big name politicians have indicated they would support changing the minimum Early Eligibility Age (EEA) rules for Social Security. Obama has said it, so has Boehner. Even guys who love Social Security, like Sen. Harry R...
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Retail Sales Not Too Bad

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January 12, 2012
Retail Sales Not Too Bad

While the media was trumpeting a miss on retail sales, the truth, as usual, was somewhat different than the media message. The major media outlets reported that a 0.1% gain missed analysts’ consensus estimate of a gain of 0.3% for the month of December. As usual, the report was stated in seasonally adjusted terms,...
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Consumer Credit in U.S. Surged in Nov.by the most in 10 years

Consumer Credit in U.S. Surged in Nov. By Meera Louis - Jan 9, 2012 3:21 PM ET . Consumer borrowing (CICRTOT) in the U.S. surged in November by the most in 10 years, showing households are optimistic enough to take on debt and banks are willing to len...
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Empty Plastic

While economists and the mainstream media tried hard to get everyone excited by today's "better-than-expected" employment report (which included an unusually large and likely-to-be-reversed spike in hiring in the "Couriers & Messengers" category), t...
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Wrong Again: Why Experts’ Predictions Fail, Especially About the Future

Michael Shermer. Wrong Again: Why Experts' Predictions Fail, Especially About the Future Posted: 1/5/12 12:03 AM ET With the first week of 2012 upon us it is time to reflect on that favorite pastime of soothsayers and scientists alike: predicting the...
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Signs Point to Economy’s Rise, but Experts See a False Dawn

December 21, 2011 Signs Point to Economy’s Rise, but Experts See a False Dawn By ANNIE LOWREY WASHINGTON — As the fourth quarter draws to a close, a spate of unexpectedly good economic data suggests that it will have some of the fastest and stro...
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The Growth of Degrowth Economics

The Growth of Degrowth Economics Degrowth theory, whose supporters push policies to reduce economic activity and end our obsession with GDP, is gaining momentum in Europe and Canada. Will the movement reach U.S. soil? What if we promoted policies ...
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The Debt Walkers Strike Back

Ilargi: It's very simple, but maybe that's the problem. For all I know it's just too simple for people to see. There's a group of people, and it's tempting to call them the 1%, but they’re not really, since there’s politicians in there too who ...
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Majority of Economists Still See Deflation Gloom

Two and a half years after the official end of the recession, in June 2009, this recovery looks like none before it, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its January issue. Daniel Tarullo, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, describ...
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Supercommittee failure ‘may trigger US downgrade’

Economists are warning of dire consequences if US politicians fail to make progress this weekend in tense talks aimed at reducing America's massive deficit ahead of a Wednesday deadline. Supercommittee failure 'may trigger US downgrade'
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Retail Sales Reports Give Me Gas

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November 15, 2011
Retail Sales Reports Give Me Gas

It just doesn’t get any more bullish than today’s retail sales report. Or so you would think if you only read the mainstream media reports. “More spending at online stores such as Amazon and electronics and applicance stores boosted retail sales by 0.5% in October, following a strong 1.1% surge in September,” shouted Marketwatch....
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The Truth About ECRI’s Black Box, And Lakshman Achuthan’s Attacks On Wall Street

The Truth About ECRI's Black Box, And Lakshman Achuthan's Attacks On Wall Street Dutch_Book, Stone Street Advisors|Nov. 11, 2011, 8:43 AM|1,950|20 Monday Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI (who I am still convinced is just Jeff Goldblum in a bald cap doing t...
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ECRI Leading Index: Another Tick Higher

November 4, 2011, 12:13 PM ET. ECRI Leading Index: Another Tick Higher. By Mark Gongloff ECRI ECRI weekly leading index rolling growth rate. Click for big image.For the third week in a row, the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly leading ...
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Unemployment Claims Data and Economists’ Exploding Brain Syndrome

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October 20, 2011
Unemployment Claims Data and Economists’ Exploding Brain Syndrome

With the mainstream media reporting the seasonally adjusted first time unemployment claims down by 6,000 it’s time for a reminder that this number is fake, and may or may not give an accurate representation of the trend. If it does, it’s purely a coincidence. Economists and financial journos are in love with the seasonally...
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U.S. Underclass to serve U.S. Ruling Class Forever

Slowly, over the last year, it’s begun to dawn on us: The economic recovery isn’t really making a dent in unemployment. ...
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Make-Work and the G.D.P.

October 14, 2011, 6:00 am Make-Work and the G.D.P. By UWE E. REINHARDT Uwe E. Reinhardt is an economics professor at Princeton. He has some financial interests in the health care field. Suppose some evening a group of bored and mischievous teenagers...
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Why America Should Spread The Wealth

Many economists worry that making societies more equal through income redistribution or other means lowers economic growth. This “big tradeoff” between equality and efficiency, which is supported by comparisons of capitalist and socialist countri...
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Does The ECRI Cause Recessions?

Does The ECRI Cause Recessions? by: Dr. Duru October 3, 2011 The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) released a report on September 30, 2011 with the ominous title: “U.S. Economy Tipping into Recession.” The ECRI provides its full report ...
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Retail Sales Reports Right, But For Wrong Reason

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September 14, 2011
Retail Sales Reports Right, But For Wrong Reason

Bloomberg got it partly right when taking the gloomy view it reported that, “Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly stagnated in August as a lack of employment and limited income growth restrained demand, highlighting the risk the economy will stall.”  Marketwatch took the glass half full approach, saying, “Retail sales were steady in August, as consumers...
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No Housing Bottom in Sight

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September 12, 2011
No Housing Bottom in Sight

Economic Intersection Article of the Week Guest author: Keith Jurow is the author of the MVP Housing Market Report. This article was posted at Minyanville with the title "There Is No Housing Bottom in Sight" At the e...
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A Closer Look at Romney’s Economic Plan

September 7, 2011, 5:29 pm A Closer Look at Romney’s Economic Plan By MOTOKO RICH Now that we’ve had a day to digest Mitt Romney’s economic plan, Matthew Yglesias looks between the lines and finds what he calls an “agenda on social welfare pol...
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Job Growth at Halt in U.S.; Worst Showing in 11 Months

September 2, 2011 Job Growth at Halt in U.S.; Worst Showing in 11 Months By SHAILA DEWAN The economy failed to add new jobs in August, the first time there has been no increase in net jobs in the United States in 11 months. The flat performance in t...
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When Debt is Fraud, Debt Forgiveness is the Only Remedy

Finally serious economists are considering a position I have been maintaining and writing about since the 2008 financial meltdown. Whatever its name— erasure, repudiation, abolishment, cancellation, jubilee—debt forgiveness, will have to event...
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ECRI: Not Quite A Recession Yet, But No Rebound Either

ECRI: Not Quite A Recession Yet, But No Rebound Either Also Sprach Analyst | Aug. 29, 2011, 5:23 PM Lakshman Achuthan, the economist at Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), has been rather accurately in the past for calling the major turning poi...
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There Is NO Housing Bottom In Sight

At the end of June 2011, macromarkets.com released the results of a poll in which 108 leading economists and housing market analysts were asked to predict the direction of home prices from now until 2015. All except four of them predicted that hous...
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