Posts Tagged ‘ Download Pdf ’

The month to date tax receipts for the full month of February are out. Withholding taxes were down 2.3% year to year. That’s a big improvement in the rate of decline over recent months. The change was only -0.6% versus January. This is the best performance since 2007 when the month to month change...
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Cycle based stock screening data was stronger in all but one measure, suggesting that the downtick in the market averages on Wednesday would be followed by an up day on Thursday. This morning’s action suggests otherwise, but it’s early. The dip buyers will be tested. Click here to download complete report in...
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Part of the reason for today’s bond market strength was the big paydown in the 4 week bill. The $18 billion paydown left investors with nowhere to go. With the weak earnings scare, the first option for those getting cash jammed back into their pockets was intermediate term Treasuries. Click here to...
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While I still don’t know exactly how the Treasury built up that enormous cash hoard, we may have gotten a clue today how it intends to use it. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that...
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The wild card is a huge cash hoard that the Treasury has built up, several times larger than is typical for this time of year. If the Treasury uses that cash hoard to reduce debt operations in the short run, that will prop the market. If they use it to increase spending, it will...
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Today’s release of existing home sales by the NAR shows that Federal housing gift programs continue to distort the housing market. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will...
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The Treasury settled $49.7 billion in newly issued debt last week. Surprise, surprise, that’s almost the exact amount of MBS securities the Fed settled to its balance sheet. It has to be a matter of some consternation to Bernanke and Co. that even though the Fed has been conducting these back door maneuvers to...
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The Treasury has not announced a CMB this week, which means that apparently the $40 billion in CMBs due to expire on Thursday will not be rolled over. Normally that would be bullish. . If the market doesn’t move up, that would be a huge red flag. There are other signs of a storm...
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The week just past was easy in terms of new Treasury supply, with just the 4, 13, and 26 week bill auctions. Those are the weeks where the Treasury and Fed don’t need to prop the Treasury market because the government isn’t selling longer term debt. That changes next week with $60 billion in...
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FCBs appeared to show up at the auctions this week, but they were apparently selling paper in the market even faster. This looks to me like an attempt to hoodwink the market by boosting the indirect bid, which all the media outlets are now following and reporting religiously, while quietly sneaking out the back...
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Cycle based stock screening data strengthened in all but the 6-7 week time frame. The sudden, sharp move in prices came without any real forewarning from the cycle indicators. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within...
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Note sizes are about as expected for next week’s auctions, amounting to $98 billion in new supply that will settle the following Monday, 11/30. With these note sales looming, they went to work today to trigger a stock market panic to free up cash for the Treasury auctions. Click here to download...
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Cycle based stock screening data weakened across the board on Wednesday. This could be a significant signal Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a...
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Cycle based stock screening data went to the bulls 6 to 3, but the upticking in new short term sell signals suggests the approach of a short term peak. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within...
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Tax receipts collapsed at an annual rate of 18% in October, which is far worse than I had feared based on our tracking of the daily data. At the same time, mortgage purchase applications collapsed last week, signaling the tailspin we expected as the first time home suckers panic subsided. The extension of this...
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During weeks where there are no auctions of longer term paper, the government takes little action to suppress yields. That’s another reason why, when Treasury supply is light, stock prices tend to rise. When Treasury supply is heavy, they need to push yields lower. Their primary tool in doing that is by releasing worse...
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The Treasury finished up a light week with a 4 week bill auction that drew another wave of panic buying keep the rate near zero. There’s no real sign of a letup to the mania, as terrified investors continue to seek the “safety” of the shortest term Treasuries. Panic behavior of this nature...
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The net aggregate differential between buy and sell side cycle screen indications dropped from -1796 to -2018, the lowest reading since last October. At that time the low of -2316 occurred with the SPX nearly 100 points above its short term low and nearly 240 points above the November price low. ...
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The Treasury’s cash management bill paydowns are due to end this week. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that...
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Treasury auctions have gone according to plan this week, bid heavily because of the $28 billion in CMB paydowns flooding the market with cash. That party ended Thursday, because in this coming week net settlements will require the market to cough up $49 billion. Click here to download complete report in pdf format...
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$28 billion will buy one hell of a party. Next week, not so much. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund....
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The Fed told the world in no uncertain terms today that it would be pumping less cash into the market over the next 6 weeks. As Psyche Doctor put it so delicately on the Stool Pigeons Wire message board, “Was thinking that the crack heads must’ve realized that they are going to be getting...
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$20 billion in Treasury paydowns and $1.8 billion in Fed purchases of Treasuries on Wednesday will all settle tomorrow. $22 billion sloshing around will go a long way toward sending short term rates to zero and boosting the speculative mania for stocks. That euphoria could abruptly shift tomorrow… Click here to...
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Monthly tax receipts for August are out and the comparisons are ugly. Meanwhile, Treasury paydowns this week mean that there’s $20 billion floating around with no place to go in this little game of musical chairs. A few billion here and there to pump into stocks goes a long way, as we...
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The Treasury market laughed in the face of having to pay for $55 billion of new intermediate and long term paper on Tuesday 9/15. That combined with the reduction in the Fed’s subsidy of this market, due to end on October 31, should have hurt the market, but instead there was a buying panic....
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The SPX heads for a test of the recent highs with some key indicators suggesting that the test will fail. On the other hand we have seen sell signals fail to “work” time and again in recent months. That’s how bull markets act. Click here to download complete report in pdf format...
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The Fed bought a small amount of long term Treasuries today, but not enough to explain the strong performance of the 5 year note auction. Considering the $98 billion in new Treasury supply this week, including $91 billion in new notes, it’s miraculous that both stocks and bonds have held up as well as...
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With new no Treasury supply this week, yet still supported by Fed buying, the stock market rally rolled on. But, triggered by NAR housing data that was misinterpreted by the media, the Treasury rally got smacked down, with yields surging. I had expected this a day earlier when next week’s auctions were announced, with...
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The Treasury completed its weekly round of auctions today with a 70 day CMB rollover. The indirect bid, which had been strong at Monday’s auction, fell off the table at Tuesday’s 4 week bill auction, and at today’s CMB auction. The overall indirect bid was down for the third time in the past 4...
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Light Treasury supply and Fed buying have buoyed the bond market, and because of that lack of supply the stock market was able to come back some on Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday’s Treasury auctions saw a big jump in the indirect bid and bid/cover ratios, thanks to the light supply, but that will be...
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