A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
Read More »
Indications were only mixed, in spite of the pullback Friday. The 6 month cycle up phase remains intact. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a...
Read More »
Conditions now appear favorable for a short term and possible intermediate high to form, but certain additional signals are necessary. This report discusses them.
Read More »
Rather than adding clarity, the market’s stall on Tuesday created a state of suspended animation, causing a couple of upside projections to abort and another to moderate.
Read More »
A couple of big names had huge rallies on Friday. That pushed the averages up, but the underlying technical picture did not improve significantly. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information...
Read More »
After Monday, there will be no new Treasury supply settling until November 30. Meanwhile the Fed has promised to pump between $41 billion and $56 billion in cash into Primary Dealer trading accounts during that period. With no new supply to be absorbed, where will the PDs put that cash to work? Click here...
Read More »
The market’s moderate decline on Monday triggered early warning sell signals on a number of cycle screen indicators, although not yet on the indicators of the broad market averages.
Read More »
Time counts suggest that a short term cycle low should be forming, but
Read More »
13 week cycle status has now recovered above 90% on the sell side. This was a quick V shaped recovery coincident with a similar recovery in the market averages. It’s highly unusual. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If,...
Read More »
The Treasury’s calendar is massive this week, with $61 billion in new supply. So far, the results have not been stellar at Monday and Tuesday’s auctions. Rates and yields rose and bid/covers fell versus the prior auctions. Indirect bids were mostly weaker on the bills. They were about the same as last month on...
Read More »
The Treasury again ran short of cash and yesterday it announced that it would sell $21 billion in 10 day CMBs, which it auctioned today. Next week’s calendar is gargantuan. New supply will total $61 billion, with $28 billion settling on April 8, and a net of $33 billion that will settle on April...
Read More »
Monday’s auctions again saw strong demand, but higher rates. Supply was actually a bit lower than anticipated, this week. The TARP warrant sales probably had a small impact on that, but more importantly, tax receipts carried through on February’s strengthening with more strength in March. Click here to download complete report in pdf format...
Read More »
The month to date tax receipts for the full month of February are out. Withholding taxes were down 2.3% year to year. That’s a big improvement in the rate of decline over recent months. The change was only -0.6% versus January. This is the best performance since 2007 when the month to month change...
Read More »
Cycle based stock screening data was stronger in all but one measure, suggesting that the downtick in the market averages on Wednesday would be followed by an up day on Thursday. This morning’s action suggests otherwise, but it’s early. The dip buyers will be tested. Click here to download complete report in pdf format...
Read More »
Part of the reason for today’s bond market strength was the big paydown in the 4 week bill. The $18 billion paydown left investors with nowhere to go. With the weak earnings scare, the first option for those getting cash jammed back into their pockets was intermediate term Treasuries. Click here to download complete...
Read More »
While I still don’t know exactly how the Treasury built up that enormous cash hoard, we may have gotten a clue today how it intends to use it. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you...
Read More »
The wild card is a huge cash hoard that the Treasury has built up, several times larger than is typical for this time of year. If the Treasury uses that cash hoard to reduce debt operations in the short run, that will prop the market. If they use it to increase spending, it will...
Read More »
Today’s release of existing home sales by the NAR shows that Federal housing gift programs continue to distort the housing market. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will...
Read More »
The Treasury settled $49.7 billion in newly issued debt last week. Surprise, surprise, that’s almost the exact amount of MBS securities the Fed settled to its balance sheet. It has to be a matter of some consternation to Bernanke and Co. that even though the Fed has been conducting these back door maneuvers to...
Read More »
The Treasury has not announced a CMB this week, which means that apparently the $40 billion in CMBs due to expire on Thursday will not be rolled over. Normally that would be bullish. . If the market doesn’t move up, that would be a huge red flag. There are other signs of a storm...
Read More »
Twitter links powered by Tweet This v1.8.3, a WordPress plugin for Twitter.
Recent Comments