Posts Tagged ‘ Crash ’

The Myth of U.S. Consumer De-Leveraging

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January 18, 2012
The Myth of U.S. Consumer De-Leveraging

The supposed “de-leveraging” which the mainstream media boasted of was nothing but propaganda mythology. However, the new consumer debt which Americans have piled on since the beginning of 2010 is very, very real. And all the resulting U.S. auto-loan defaults, credit-card defaults, student-loan defaults, personal bankruptcies, and foreclosures in the months ahead will be...
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Analyst: The Stock Market Is About To Crash

Most of the folks who were dead wrong for years after the market low in March 2009 (see chart at right) have quietly given up, but at least one analyst is still calling for stocks to crash through those financial-crisis lows. United-ICAP senior te...
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Opinion: Black Friday: Another Crushing Economic Disappointment

Since Bloomberg refused to do this, I'll take the liberty of doing it for them. Shadowstats watchers know that U.S. inflation has been hovering close to 10% all this year. Therefore, to engage in a meaningful comparison of Black Friday 2011 with Black ...
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SPX Update: Bounce or Die

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November 27, 2011
SPX Update: Bounce or Die

Last week, the market wrapped up its worst Thanksgiving week since 1932, losing almost 5%, as I opined would happen the week before.  There's been no material change in the counts since Friday.  The bounce on Friday...
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SPX Update: The Crash: 1; Seasonality: 0

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November 25, 2011
SPX Update:  The Crash: 1; Seasonality: 0

As predicted, Wednesday's normally seasonally-bullish session turned into a big red candle.  That in itself should tell us something about this market, as that marks only the second time in ten years that the Wednesday before Thanksgiving&nbs...
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Market Opening Outlook 11/22/11

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November 22, 2011
Market Opening Outlook 11/22/11

The cash market overshot a 2 day cycle projection of 1196 in the late going yesterday and even though it pulled back in the closing moments, 2 and 5 day cycle indicators remained on the buy side. The S&P futures pushed a little higher overnight in Asia, reaching the declining 5 day cycle centerline,...
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Pretzel Logic’s E Wave Commentary SPX Update: Will the Waterfall Crash Continue?

Pretzel Logic’s E Wave Commentary SPX Update:  Will the Waterfall Crash Continue?

So far, the market has lived up to my prediction of a waterfall decline, and now everyone wants to know if it's going to continue. Today we're going to take a look at a few things and try to answer that. First of all, it helps to know what a waterfal...
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SPX Update: Will the Waterfall Crash Continue?

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November 22, 2011
SPX Update:  Will the Waterfall Crash Continue?

So far, the market has lived up to my prediction of a waterfall decline, and now everyone wants to know if it's going to continue.  Today we're going to take a look at a few things and try to answer that. First of all, it helps to know ...
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Market Opening Outlook 11/21/11

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November 21, 2011
Market Opening Outlook 11/21/11

We left the cash market Friday with the 2 day cycle just starting to roll over as they headed for the closing bell. An initial 2 day cycle projection pointed to 1205 which was smashed in the futures overnight. The futures have come off a low of 1192 slightly. The cash open will be...
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SPX, NDX, XLE Updates: SPX 1000 Here We Come (Right Back Where We Started From)

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November 20, 2011
SPX, NDX, XLE Updates:  SPX 1000 Here We Come (Right Back Where We Started From)

I believe this initial crash wave could move a lot faster than most are expecting. Before going further, let me first state that I continue to be quite bearish both long-term and short-term.  The question I'm trying to answer now is whe...
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SPX and NDX Update: Crash Wave Finally on Deck

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November 18, 2011
SPX and NDX Update:  Crash Wave Finally on Deck

The crash wave I've been expecting for a week appears to have finally begun.  The markets showed some strong downside in the last two sessions, and did what they needed to in order to fulfill the expectations of the crash count...
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Attention Passengers on Global Equity Flight 2011…..

An array of evidence suggests that a crash in equities might be just ahead. I know, I know, retail sales are up so everything's wunnerful, but the captain of Global Equities Flight 2011 just instructed the passengers to assume crash positions. I...
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SPX and BKX Update: Market on Hold, Call Again Later

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November 15, 2011
SPX and BKX Update: Market on Hold, Call Again Later

Yesterday gave us nothing in the way of meaningful price data.  In a range-bound market, a day that stays well within that range doesn't help much.  So the crash count is still out there -- but the market has really moved no cl...
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SPX Update: Crash Wave Still Unconfirmed; Fundamentals Still Bearish

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November 13, 2011
SPX Update: Crash Wave Still Unconfirmed; Fundamentals Still Bearish

While the crash wave setup remains "as good as it gets," the market has thus far stayed above the key levels I've outlined previously (1215 and 1190) which could actually spark a crash.  After Friday's rally, the market is...
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SPX Update: Crash Wave Ready; Confirmation Still Pending

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November 11, 2011
SPX Update: Crash Wave Ready; Confirmation Still Pending

There's been no material change in the counts since yesterday's update, however, I have narrowed down some possibilities for the current retracement rally. (If you're new to the discussion, or to Elliott Wave Theory, it would&nbs...
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SPX Update: Looking for Confirmation of the Crash Wave

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November 10, 2011
SPX Update:  Looking for Confirmation of the Crash Wave

On Tuesday, my readers and I were pretty much all alone, looking for a top.  How things can change in a day!  All the sudden, the masses seem to be waking up from the drunken euphoria of Wave (2) and realizing the world doesn't lo...
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Increasing Volatility: Prelude To A Crash?

The megaphone pattern in the U.S. stock market typically presages a major decline or full-blown crash. Market observers have long noted that increasing volatility presages market crashes. If you glance at a chart of September-October 1929, just b...
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Faber’s Latest on Gold: $1,100 Low

Dr. Marc Faber suggests Gold could fall as low as $1,100. (See link.) I'm more in line with the other value target-price mentioned here: $1,400. http://www.cnbc.com/id/44667027 In an email to clients on 8/22/11, I stated my strong hunch for Au's -25% ...
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BLUE BALL Update…CRASH is about to start?

http://megaswf.com/file/1171818
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GREEN TimeBall signals CRASH on DAILY chart?

http://megaswf.com/file/1171430
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3 Day Weekend CRASH Setup

3 Day Weekend CRASH Setup

BLUE BALL Crash Trajectory still possible. Will the RED BALL Follow? March 2009 Low Trendline BROKEN November 2008 Low Trendline KISS OF DEATH? Will OCTOBER 2008 Low Trendline HOLD or BREAK now?
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A Full Scale Credit Crash May Be Imminent

In Crosstown Traffic, Jimi Hendrix sang: “can’t you see my signals turn from green to red / And with you I can see a traffic jam straight up ahead.” In global financial markets, the signals have changed from green to red. But rather than a sim...
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One Important Reason This Crash is Different From 2008

The stock market has crashed back down to 1998 levels (S&P 500 off 6.6 percent today). The velocity of the collapse has people talking about whether this will be like 2008 all over again. I don’t think that it can be. The Collapse of 2008 was ...
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Another 11 Million Mortgages are Likely to Default

A major bear on the housing market, Amherst Securities' Laurie Goodman has predicted since 2009 another housing crash as banks are forced to liquidate tons of bad loans. Up to 11 million mortgages are likely to default, according to Goodman. This ...
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100 point SPX Future Crash Line?

100 point SPX Future Crash Line?


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U.S. Housing Crisis Now Worse than Great Depression

It's official: The housing crisis that began in 2006 and has recently entered a double dip is now worse than the Great Depression. Prices have fallen some 33 percent since the market began its collapse, greater than the 31 percent fall that began i...
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A Crash Is Never A Probability

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June 13, 2011

Even though some signs point to an imminent bottom, it’s important to remember that crashes are triggered when markets are already weak and probing for a bottom. When a key support level gives way the floodgates open. That may never be a probability, but it is a risk here. Tweet
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Can Americans Stomach a Second Housing Crash?

Professor Robert Shiller, one of the founders of the Case Shiller Index has made recent headlines by stating rather calmly that home prices will likely fall another 10 to 25 percent in the upcoming years. Of course, this can happen either through a...
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No Recovery From Next Flash Crash

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June 3, 2011

Cycle based stock screening data weakened across the board for a 3rd day, continuing the all or nothing behavior that was rare before the past year. The machines that trade the market in bulk are exhibiting even greater tendencies toward herd behavior than the humans who trade markets and program those computers. This will...
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18 Facts About China That Will Blow Your Mind

For all the crazy stories you've heard about China, the world's biggest country is going to keep blowing your mind. The speed and size of economic development going in China right now has never happened before. In just ten years, a small emerging ma...
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