A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Conventional Wisdom ’
Whales and Market Cornering Attempts
“You have to dance while the music is playing”- Chuck Prince, Citigroup mucky muck, shortly before 2008 crisis Of late Zero Hedge has been mentioning the presence of one large JP Morgan trader nicknamed the whale (Bruno Iksil). Tuesday ZH broa...
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In a Ministry of Truth World
All day, the MSM trolled out all the dynamite talking heads types, saying that a 2-3% correction is healthy, blah, blah and now the Fed can add stimulus. All day, you see words like rescue, followed by some lobbyist functionary talking his trade. This mantra has gone beyond merely obscene and feels like one...
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The Chess Game with Iran
The enemy of the conventional wisdom is not ideas but the march of events. - John Kenneth Galbraith The western embargo against Iran’s oil seems to be running into a buzz saw. The success of any embargo will be conditioned on two variables: 1) whether Saudi Arabia can quickly ramp up production to meet European demand,...
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3 Experts Prognosticate on 2012
December 30, 2011
3 Experts Prognosticate on 2012
By JAMES B. STEWART
Predictions for the economy and markets for 2012 have been bleak, and 2011 was much worse than expected. There may not be much to celebrate this New Year’s Eve.
That ma...
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Keynes Was Right
December 29, 2011
Keynes Was Right
By PAUL KRUGMAN
“The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury.” So declared John Maynard Keynes in 1937, even as F.D.R. was about to prove him right by trying to balance the budget ...
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Third Quarter GDP Revised Downward
In their second estimate of the third quarter 2011 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the headline growth number downward by over a half percent to an annualized growth rate of 2.01%. The real story within the data, however, was tha...
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Analysis: Pension funds in new crisis as deficit hole grows
Analysis: Pension funds in new crisis as deficit hole grows
On Monday September 5, 2011, 10:05 am EDT
By Natsuko Waki
LONDON (Reuters) - Pension funds in developed economies are facing a new crisis as falling equities and tumbling bond yields widen t...
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“Not Bad” Economic News Not So Good Either
This article was originally sent as a Wall Street Examiner Email Bulletin, yesterday. The economic news has been better in recent days, that is if you confine yourself to reading the stories in the mainstream media. Beneath the surface, the data reveals a subtle, not so obvious deterioration. It can not be seen in...
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Elizabeth Warren
An Agency Builder, but Not Yet Its Leader
By EDWARD WYATT
Published: July 4, 2011
WASHINGTON — It is conventional wisdom in this town that the first director of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will be anyone but Elizabeth Warren.
In...
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P/E: Future On The Horizon
By guest contributor Ed Easterling
May 3, 2011
Note from dshort: This article is a must-read follow-on to the two-part series posted last week by guest contributor Ed Easterling. It discusses the ability of the Crestmont methodology for P/E and EP...
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Why Young Workers Want a Good Old-Fashioned Pension
The conventional wisdom is that young people today are inured to the idea that they will change jobs repeatedly over their careers, and that because of that, they don't really think much about pensions. But it turns out that the conventional wisdom ...
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This is no Kobe 1995 Redux
The Japan quake is a game changer and tipping point. I can’t see how news networks can compare this to Kobe’s 1995 incident. For Japan, the classic measure of interest expense (red line) is rapidly pushing up to the 30% debt trap demarcation line, versus 22% in 1995. Debt service as a percent of...
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The Art Of War
“There is little reason to fear a wholesale pullout by China from U.S. government bonds.” – Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan The conventional wisdom is that China will keep tolerating the buying and ownership of bloated US Treasury Old Maid cards and MBS, because it’s “in everybody’s best interest” to subsidize the US....
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Russ Winter’s Actionable- Risk On, Risk Off, and Inflated at the Same Time
Zero Hedge (aka Tyler Durdan) points out that the inflation-deflation trades, or risk-on, risk-off trades, are going at the same time. The likely cause of this distortion is that the conventional wisdom (CW) is already front running QE2. The Gome...
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Revisiting the Theory of Moral Sentiment
Economist Adam Smith wrote about ethics in economics in his “Theory of Moral Sentiments” and came to two principle conclusions regarding man’s conceit for his own ideal plan for government and the tendency for the public to act independently of those plans: If those two principles coincide and act in the same direction, the game...
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The B.A.D. Stink Bombs
To process what is transpiring in the world, we should focus on several stink bombs: Europe, the Anglo nations (US/UK) and Asia (primarily China). Today’s focus is the first two. Europe is front and center at the moment. Speculators are now attacking the Euro, not just covering carry trades. Now, I don’t diminish the implications...
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Keeping an Eye on the Real Ball
In keeping with my primary theme of following developments on the sovereign credit risk and endless backstop front, we go straight to the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain). The EU sent out another disclaimer to PIGGS member Greece, warning that no fiscal bailout will be forthcoming. Elsewhere the Dubai bagunca (mess) appears...
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Actionable Mentiroso
Wells Fargo is a classic case study of the poor transparency and government interference model of economic policy. Poor transparency is polite language for “lying” or “mentiroso”. Or perhaps we could just call it painting lip stick on pigs. Whatever, this “approach” now seems to be the accepted conventional wisdom. WFC stock has more...
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The article available for full viewing: Actionable Death By A Thousand Cuts
Retail same store sales are in for May, and 76% of the reports missed expectation. Typical of the pattern I see emerging, oil popped up another $2.50.  This is effectively death by a thousand cuts. As mentioned in the podcast this is what I expect the markets to start looking like going forward.
Actionable Hard Data
The market soared on a survey indicating that consumer confidence has rebounded. The conventional wisdom is getting increasingly delusional. It seems obvious that the economy is going to have to start delivering to accommodate this expectation. Presumably this is function of the stock market rally and green shoots talk. As for me I am...
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Actionable Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle?
The conventional wisdom (CW) seems to be moving towards making a staginflation call. I don’t think there is now much doubt that the surviving Risklove hedge funds are back in the game gearing this trade to try and “show their worth and manhood” to clients. Indeed many commodities (especially of late) have popped sharply...
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Actionable: The Conventional Wisdom Du Jour
excerpt-
The conventional wisdom (CW) nowadays holds that even modestly leveraged balanced sheets are bad. For example, James Cramer is pushing this CW line continually now, and I would say late in the day. Note that even as he pans these companies, he admits that the amounts of debt would be no big deal in...
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Some Challenges to the Conventional Wisdom
Good, thoughtful challenges to the conventional wisdom (CW) are rare. Of late I have spotted a few that are worth passing on. In fact I would suggest readers write these on the chalkboard one hundred times.
The first is an article from Curtis Mewbourne of Pimco. My key takeaway is the differentiating he has made...
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Obie Drinks the Kool Aid, What Would Shakespeare Say?
I like Obie, but he has drunk the Kool Aid. We are doomed. He’s listening to the advice of those very same world renowned egonomists who never saw the current mess coming. How could those who never saw it coming in the first place, and didn’t recognize it after it had already begun have...
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Egypt is NOT Just an Exogenous Event
I was watching financial networks after the “Egypt sell-off” and some commentators such as Larry Kudlow and a few of his guests mentioned the Fed’s easy money policy as at least a partial cause of global food inflation. Of course I attribute it to the unworkable symbiotic relationship between China and the US and consider those...
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