A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Consensus ’
Euro Sinks Further Amid Search for Solution to Crisis – New York Times
BBC NewsEuro Sinks Further Amid Search for Solution to CrisisNew York TimesLeaders of all 27 EU member nations gathered Wednesday evening in Brussels for what was described as an “informal dinner,” with all eyes on the simmering crisis in Greece. T...
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Euro zone to prepare for Greek exit scenario: sources | Reuters
(Reuters) – Each euro zone country will have to prepare a contingency plan for the eventuality of Greece leaving the single currency, euro zone sources said on Wednesday. Officials reached the consensus on Monday afternoon during an hour-long teleconference of the Eurogroup Working Group (EWG). As well as confirmation from three euro zone officials,...
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Devaluation – last option to save the euro – Financial Times
Telegraph.co.ukDevaluation – last option to save the euroFinancial TimesBy Jeremy J. Siegel As debate about a Greek exit from the euro grows, the European crisis is reaching boiling point. There are three sources for the problems of Greece and other ...
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Euro Crisis: Why A Greek Exit Could Be Much Worse Than Expected – TIME
TheChronicleHerald.caEuro Crisis: Why A Greek Exit Could Be Much Worse Than ExpectedTIMEAt the Camp David G8 meeting last weekend, lip service was paid to keeping Greece in the euro zone. But economists who watch the continuing financial crisis in Euro...
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Obama sees ‘emerging consensus’ on economic fix – BusinessWeek
Obama sees 'emerging consensus' on economic fixBusinessWeekObama played international host as Europe's debt crisis threatens to drag down the US recovery and his own political future, underscoring the stakes for him in getting allies abroad...
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France’s Hollande to set out eurobond plans at summit – Telegraph.co.uk
Telegraph.co.ukFrance's Hollande to set out eurobond plans at summitTelegraph.co.ukFrench President Francois Hollande said he will make proposals for eurobonds at an upcoming European summit as he outlines his ideas to stimulate growth and help ail...
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Instant View: German prelim first-quarter GDP unexpectedly strong – Reuters
Telegraph.co.ukInstant View: German prelim first-quarter GDP unexpectedly strongReuters| BERLIN (Reuters) - German gross domestic product grew a surprise 0.5 percent in the first quarter in seasonally adjusted terms - well ahead of a consensus forecast...
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April Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 115.000; Private Payrolls Up 130.000; Unemployment Rate At 8.1% | Tainted Alpha
(For April 2012) Nonfarm payrolls rose 115.000 in April; Consensus was at 160.000; March reading was an increase of 154.000 (revised up 34.000). Unemployment was reported at 8.1% vs. prior reading and consensus of also 8.2%. Private payrolls were up 130.000 vs. 165.000 consensus and 166.000 reading in March (revised up 45.000). Bellow consensus for April,...
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U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – May 4, 2012 | Tainted Alpha
May 4th, 2012 by Belisarius (For The Week Ending April 27, 2012) Total collapse because of oversupply this winter followed by a rebound in recent weeks. Working gas in storage rose 28 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 29 Bcf. Storage level is massive 810 Bcf higher than same time year ago and way above 5-year average....
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U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 365.000; Down 27.000
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 365.000 vs. 379.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 392.000.
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European Markets Seen Rising Ahead of ECB Rate Decision – CNBC.com
AFPEuropean Markets Seen Rising Ahead of ECB Rate DecisionCNBC.comEuropean shares are seen opening higher Thursday with the European Central Bank's interest rate decision a major focus for markets. Broad consensus expects no change to interest rate...
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Allstate beats Street, derivatives hurt Prudential – Reuters
Allstate beats Street, derivatives hurt PrudentialReuters* Prudential oper EPS $1.56 vs consensus $1.71 * Allstate oper EPS $1.42 vs consensus $1.12 * Hartford oper EPS $1.25 vs consensus 91 cents * Allstate rises after-hours, Prudential, Hartford fall...
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The Views from Near and Far
Tags: Stock Market
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AdlerConobot Takes On Conomists’ Consensual Sexpectations
Job one for the US Treasury and its Primary Dealer enforcers is to keep yields low during weeks when the Treasury has a big load of notes and bonds to sell. Next week is one of those weeks, so the casino owners and managers will do what they can to gin up reasons for...
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Just How Bad Is This Week’s Unemployment Claims Data? Not Bad At All
The mainstream media today reported an increase in initial jobless claims this week to 380,000, an increase of 13,000. This was another huge miss for the consensus of conomists, where the central tendency of expectations was for 359,000 initial claims. The conomic establishment continues to prove its worth week in and week out. The...
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Durable Goods and The Stock Market, with The Fed In The Driver’s Seat
Durable goods orders rose 8.7% In February versus January on a nominal, not seasonally adjusted basis. The mainstream media reported only the 2.2% seasonally massaged increase, which missed the consensus expectation of 2.9%. The actual, unadjusted increase was the best February gain since February 2004, so the actual data could hardly be read as...
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New House Sales Show Continued Improvement
While the media was touting a miss on consensus expectations, and Bloomberg posted an outright lie on Twitter, the actual unadjusted data did show a big improvement over the year ago performance.
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February Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 227,000; Private Payrolls Up 233,000; Unemployment Rate At 8.3%- Charts
Nonfarm payrolls rose 227.000 in February; Consensus was at 210.000; January reading was an increase of 284.000 (revised up 41.000). Unemployment was reported at 8.3% vs. prior reading and consensus of also 8.3%.
Private payrolls were up 233.000 vs. 2...
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Banks to gulp half a trillion euros from ECB
Banks to gulp half a trillion euros from ECB
Reuters – 3 hours ago.. .
By Jonathan Cable and Yati Himatsingka
LONDON (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will lend nearly half a trillion euros to banks at rock-bottom rates next week through its thr...
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Dis and Dat
.Self-Serving Accounting
There’s been an ongoing row about changes in lease accounting. Big players in the leasing industry (think GE) have been fighting the changes tooth-and-nail. This article had some interesting data on the consequences of the n...
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Economists Surprised Again By Unemployment Claims, Should Not Have Been
The mainstream media proclaimed an unexpected “beat” of the first time unemployment claims number today. The fake, seasonally fudged number dropped to 358,000 in the week ended February 4. According to Bloomberg, the consensus of economists’ expectations was for 370,000. Aside from the fact that whether economists get a forecast right or not seems...
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U.S. GDP Growth in Q4 2011 At 2.8%
U.S. GDP growth for Q4 was reported at 2.8%; consensus was at 3.0%. Q3 2011 reading was at 1.8%.
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New CBO report – Lower (not increase) the early retirement age!
At one point or another, all the big name politicians have indicated they would support changing the minimum Early Eligibility Age (EEA) rules for Social Security. Obama has said it, so has Boehner. Even guys who love Social Security, like Sen. Harry R...
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GOOG earnings after the close
15:34 GOOG Google Earnings Preview (554.28 +5.77)
Tech giant GOOG is set to post Q3 results after the close and the market is hoping that the technology space is seeing a better environment than banking. Hopes are high that it will post a second straig...
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Unemployment Claims Give Fed More Ammo
An analysis of the actual, not seasonally manipulated and massaged unemployment claims data shows some deterioration in employment, week to week. Weakening employment data has raised expectations for Fed action. Actual initial claims rose by 9,355. In the same week last year they were down by 1,273. The average increase in new claims in...
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Things are bad, but analysts can’t say ‘sell’ :)
Sept. 7, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Things are bad, but analysts can’t say ‘sell’
By Robert Powell, MarketWatch
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Sometimes you just gotta love Wall Street for calling a spade anything but a spade.
Consider, at a place and t...
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Descended From Apes, Acting Like Slime Molds
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- As we lurch from one high-stakes political drama to another, it is natural to wonder why societies aren’t better at avoiding self-inflicted crises. Here in the U.S. earlier this month, the government barely dodged default, e...
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Unemployment and the Market: A 62-Year Perspective
June 3, 2011 monthly update
A disappointing increase of only 54,000 jobs was accompanied by an unemployment rate for May of 9.1%, up from the previous month's 9.0%. The briefing.com consensus was for 9.0% and their own estimate was for 9.1%. The...
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