A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Cmb ’
Treasury Market Panic Reversal Due To Little Known Forces Called Supply and Demand
The Treasury market panic saw a bit of a reversal this week, partly due to an unexpected, large increase in supply because of a sharp drop in Federal tax revenues over the past couple of weeks, and partly due to the market misunderstanding of Thursday morning’s news. The “better than expected” weekly unemployment claims...
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Treasury Running Out of Cash, Announces 64-Day CMB In Addition To Usual Weekly Bill Offerings
Apparently seeing revenues falling well short of forecasts, the US Treasury today announced a surprise $20 billion Cash Management Bill (CMB). This bill was not included in the TBAC (Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee) forecast schedule posted just last week. The simultaneously announced regular 6 month bill was $1 billion above the TBAC forecast. Here...
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TBAC Report Shows Why We Are Doomed
So the debt ceiling thing is “solved” but that may have been the least of the market’s problems. If my numbers are correct, the Treasury will need to raise money in the coming week that it hasn’t told the market about yet. My swaguesstimate last week was that they would need $96 billion of...
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Such a Deal
So they made a deal. Let’s assume for just a minute that they actually can corral enough votes in both houses to pass it with the votes of the “moderates” of both parties within the next couple of days. That would be when the real trouble starts– dealing with the nuts and bolts of...
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Treasuries and Stocks Face Perfect Storm
The Treasury again had to raise extra cash this week with an unscheduled Cash Management Bill (CMB) as its cash pile fell well below the levels necessary to pay the bills. In spite of that it was still a relatively easy week for the market to handle with just $8 billion in net new...
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Outlays Up, Revenues Down, Yields Supply Surprise – Professional Edition
ACCESS LINK CORRECTED! The Treasury surprised the market on Monday when it announced a 21 day CMB for $35 billion. That was apparently necessary to roll over the expiring 300 day $25 billion CMB, and raise new cash. This week we introduce new charts to track daily withholding taxes so that you can see...
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Where There’s Smoke- Professional Edition Fed Report
The Treasury has not announced a CMB this week, which means that apparently the $40 billion in CMBs due to expire on Thursday will not be rolled over. Normally that would be bullish. . If the market doesn’t move up, that would be a huge red flag. There are other signs of a storm...
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No CMB Means Lots of Cash For Markets – Professional Edition
In the short run, i.e. this week, the paydown of Cash Management Bills is bullish for both stocks and Treasuries, but the indirect bid at this week’s auctions was weak. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that...
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It Gets Worse – Professional Edition Fed Report
The Treasury completed its weekly round of auctions today with a 70 day CMB rollover. The indirect bid, which had been strong at Monday’s auction, fell off the table at Tuesday’s 4 week bill auction, and at today’s CMB auction. The overall indirect bid was down for the third time in the past 4...
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Mr. Green Shoots The Dead Cat
The BLS announced its estimate for June new home sales today, and the results were much ballyhooed as more evidence of green shoots. To me it looks more like a dead cat bouncing. One thing that isn’t bouncing is prices. I’ve included a couple of charts in the body of the report for your...
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More Crazy Ideas and Chinks in the Armor – Professional Edition
The Fed floated a trial balloon today on the idea of selling its own debt. Those of you who have been following these pages know that this is a horrible idea which would only further serve to crowd private borrowers out of the market. I’m not sure what effect the Fed intended by floating...
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Hank and Ben’s Excellent Short Term Gift – Professional Edition
The market got a huge gift from the US Treasury this week in the form of a $23 billion debt paydown. That cash put a bid under stocks and exacerbated the panic into Treasuries. The Treasury faces $40 billion in CMB expirations next week, and so far, there’s no announcement that they will be...
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Retired CMBs Boost Market – Professional Edition Fed Report
The Treasury retired $30 billion in CMBs this week, putting cash back into the market. That cash put a bid under stocks and exacerbated the panic into Treasuries. The Treasury faces $40 billion in CMB expirations next week, and so far, there’s no announcement that they will be replaced. There are other signs that...
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Messy Mass of Fed Data Makes Some Sense- Professional Edition
Thursday’s Treasury auctions again showed minor cracks in the façade with a weak indirect bid on the 30 year bond and a smaller indirect bid on the CMB than on last week’s CMB auction. The Treasury announced next week’s schedule, and it appears that new supply next week will be around $30 billion, up...
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