Posts Tagged ‘ Cmb ’

TBAC Report Shows Why We Are Doomed

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August 6, 2011

So the debt ceiling thing is “solved” but that may have been the least of the market’s problems. If my numbers are correct, the Treasury will need to raise money in the coming week that it hasn’t told the market about yet. My swaguesstimate last week was that they would need $96 billion of...
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Such a Deal

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July 31, 2011

So they made a deal. Let’s assume for just a minute that they actually can corral enough votes in both houses to pass it with the votes of the “moderates” of both parties within the next couple of days. That would be when the real trouble starts– dealing with the nuts and bolts of...
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Treasuries and Stocks Face Perfect Storm

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March 4, 2011

The Treasury again had to raise extra cash this week with an unscheduled Cash Management Bill (CMB) as its cash pile fell well below the levels necessary to pay the bills. In spite of that it was still a relatively easy week for the market to handle with just $8 billion in net new...
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Outlays Up, Revenues Down, Yields Supply Surprise – Professional Edition

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August 26, 2010
Outlays Up, Revenues Down, Yields Supply Surprise – Professional Edition

ACCESS LINK CORRECTED! The Treasury surprised the market on Monday when it announced a 21 day CMB for $35 billion. That was apparently necessary to roll over the expiring 300 day $25 billion CMB, and raise new cash. This week we introduce new charts to track daily withholding taxes so that you can see...
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Where There’s Smoke- Professional Edition Fed Report

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December 15, 2009

The Treasury has not announced a CMB this week, which means that apparently the $40 billion in CMBs due to expire on Thursday will not be rolled over. Normally that would be bullish. . If the market doesn’t move up, that would be a huge red flag. There are other signs of a storm...
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No CMB Means Lots of Cash For Markets – Professional Edition

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November 17, 2009

In the short run, i.e. this week, the paydown of Cash Management Bills is bullish for both stocks and Treasuries, but the indirect bid at this week’s auctions was weak. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that...
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It Gets Worse – Professional Edition Fed Report

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August 19, 2009

The Treasury completed its weekly round of auctions today with a 70 day CMB rollover. The indirect bid, which had been strong at Monday’s auction, fell off the table at Tuesday’s 4 week bill auction, and at today’s CMB auction. The overall indirect bid was down for the third time in the past 4...
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Mr. Green Shoots The Dead Cat

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July 27, 2009

The BLS announced its estimate for June new home sales today, and the results were much ballyhooed as more evidence of green shoots. To me it looks more like a dead cat bouncing. One thing that isn’t bouncing is prices. I’ve included a couple of charts in the body of the report for your...
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They Wouldn’t Do That, Would They? Professional Edition

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February 2, 2009

The Treasury announced another CMB, along with the usual 4 week bill. The two will add a total of $40 billion in new supply to be auctioned tomorrow and settled Thursday. That should make for some ugliness. Making matters worse however, will be Wednesday’s announcement of 3 and 10 year notes and 30 year...
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More Crazy Ideas and Chinks in the Armor – Professional Edition

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December 10, 2008

The Fed floated a trial balloon today on the idea of selling its own debt. Those of you who have been following these pages know that this is a horrible idea which would only further serve to crowd private borrowers out of the market. I’m not sure what effect the Fed intended by floating...
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Hank and Ben’s Excellent Short Term Gift – Professional Edition

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December 5, 2008
Hank and Ben’s Excellent Short Term Gift – Professional Edition

The market got a huge gift from the US Treasury this week in the form of a $23 billion debt paydown. That cash put a bid under stocks and exacerbated the panic into Treasuries. The Treasury faces $40 billion in CMB expirations next week, and so far, there’s no announcement that they will be...
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Retired CMBs Boost Market – Professional Edition Fed Report

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December 4, 2008

The Treasury retired $30 billion in CMBs this week, putting cash back into the market. That cash put a bid under stocks and exacerbated the panic into Treasuries. The Treasury faces $40 billion in CMB expirations next week, and so far, there’s no announcement that they will be replaced. There are other signs that...
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Messy Mass of Fed Data Makes Some Sense- Professional Edition

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November 13, 2008

Thursday’s Treasury auctions again showed minor cracks in the façade with a weak indirect bid on the 30 year bond and a smaller indirect bid on the CMB than on last week’s CMB auction. The Treasury announced next week’s schedule, and it appears that new supply next week will be around $30 billion, up...
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