I’m struggling to find a different way to say the same thing again… Ah, the hell with it. The 10-12 month cycle projection is...
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Radio Free Wall Street
Posts Tagged ‘ Central Banks ’
Liquidity Composite Still Bullish
Liquidity indicators were mixed last week, but overall they remain firm, with trend indications split between bullish and neutral.
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Bulls In Clover While TBAC Is Smoking Dope As Usual
The Treasury market panic continued this week, with yields heading for new lows, thanks partly to a return of central banks to the table at a modest level, but mostly due to a ratcheting up of public buying. Bond fund inflows hit a record last week. It’s sheer panic. Bedlam. The panic atmosphere has...
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Market Fueled By Huge Rumored ECB Print Job And Corporate Fortress BS
Liquidity indicators backed off slightly from their recent strength last week, but overall they remain firm. I see no reason to expect either a big selloff or a big move higher in either stock or bond prices. The rangebound behavior of the markets shouldn’t change, except for one thing. The rumors are that the...
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Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital
China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc. The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in production to North American capacity signals a wider trend of Japan’s automakers to battle currency-related losses...
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The Mighty Ben
Treasury yields reached the top of the recent range and appeared headed for a breakout when along came Ben, with his mighty arms outstretched he lifts up the playing field and tilts it, and back down yields went, in spite of the big week of Treasury auctions and the market facing a big wad...
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Stick it to the Local Issued Bond Holders
ZeroHedge (ZH) has a long winded but remarkable post on the issue of subordination and the motivation of hedge fund holders of non-local bonds to stick up (called blocking) the process and, in fact, go the legal route on debt defaults. ZH cites historical examples of how successful this approach has been. ZH believes these actors will...
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Treasury’s 4 Week Bill To Be $5 Billion Less Than Forecast
The 4 week bill is announced at $30 billion, which is $5 billion less than forecast. On the week bill auction sizes total $13 billion below forecast, reflecting the strength of tax collections. CUSIP: 912795Z38Term and Type: 4-Week BillOffering Amount: $30,000,000,000Auction Date: 01/24/2012Issue Date: 01/26/2012Maturity Date: 02/23/2012PDF version of the announcementXML version of the...
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Liquidity Is Bullish Is All
Those who don’t know me well have sometimes accused me of being a permabear. Those of you who do know me via these reports know that I always strive to be just like Faux News, “fair and balanced.” I think this week’s report exemplifies that high ideal. It’s as bullish as I’ve ever been,...
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Hints of Sea Change In Treasury Market
Treasury yields fell to a key resistance level, and then rebounded sharply to break a 6 month downtrend line this week. It’s too early to call a turn, but the fact that it happened during a week when Treasury supply was non-existent—actually there was a paydown—and when foreign central banks showed up and actually...
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Casino of The Absurd
Deposit flows into US banking system (apparently from EU) continue at shocking levels. In the liquidity model of the market, there is no way the markets can decline as long as this continues. Meanwhile, the Fed continues to quietly tap the brakes, without explanation or comment, while the US money supply explodes. The Fed...
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European Panic Sweeps 700 Pound Gorilla Under The Rug
The Treasury rally got some help this week from a surge in Federal Withholding Tax collections that is helping to keep new supply down. Whereas new supply had been exceeding TBAC estimates for the past couple of months, it has come back in line with estimates, and could be reduced even further in the...
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Panic On Claims Not Supported
OK, so the market doesn't like the claims number, which missed anal cyst's estimates by a wide margin. Let's look at the facts.
Not seasonally adjusted, in other words, actual, claims rose by 102,000. Continuing claims wk ended 12/31 up by 361,000. Ho...
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What’s Next for the SNB? Something Important?
A curious development took place today. Rather a subtle one. But when it comes to watching central banks, the subtleties are often worth noting. I’m assuming all readers know that the head of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is out. The question is, “...
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Strap in for a Wild Week!
By Phil of Phil's Stock World This chart from the NYTimes pretty much says it all: The average annual inflation-adjusted return for the S&P 500 has been in decline since the late 90s, the decline only paused in the 00s and that fooled us into thinking it was a recovery...
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Huge Surge in Withholding Taxes Shows How Great Wall Street Is
Treasury supply is moderating as a result of a surge in Federal Withholding Tax collections in the second half of December. I suspect that this is a one time event due to Wall Street doling out much larger bonuses than last year, thanks to the wonderful job its bankers have done in guiding our...
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Different Look At ISM, Bullish But Weaker Than ’09 and ’10
This is a composite of the ISM Manufacturing and Non Manufacturing New Orders indexes (not the ISM Composite). I have backed out the seasonal adjustment hocus pocus and weighted the index according to the relative weighting of manufacturing and service...
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Mortgage Application Searches Fall To Record Lows
Google searches for "mortgage applications" plunged to a 5 year low in December.
View full report in Google Insights for Search
According to researchers at the NY Fed, " Recent academic research finds that Internet search data can forecast the c...
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Foreign central banks cut US treasuries
Last updated:December 30, 2011 7:20 pm
Foreign central banks cut US treasuries
By Michael Mackenzie in New York
Holdings of US Treasuries by foreign central banks has fallen by a record amount over the past four weeks according to the latest Federal ...
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A Run on the Global Banking System – How Close are We?
Nine weeks after its bankruptcy, the general public still hasn’t quite realized the implications of the MF Global scandal.
My own sense is, this is the first tremor of the earthquake that’s coming to the global financial system. And how the centr...
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A Thinly Veiled Bail
A Thinly Veiled Bail By Ilene at Phil's Stock World, with Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner (many thanks to Lee!) The ECB is borrowing U.S. Dollars from the Fed to bailout European banks. And that is in addition to the Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO). However, the "borrowing"...
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Not Too Bearish, Not Too Bullish, But Certainly Not Just Right
The mad panic into Treasuries suddenly stopped this week. 1.80 on the 10 year yield looks like a floor. The question now is whether there’s enough follow through selling to break the major downtrend line which is now around 2.03. Wouldn’t it be ironic if this week’s massive ECB Long Term Refinancing Operation was...
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Fed Finally Settles First Round Of MBS Offsetting Other Negatives in Liquidity
Liquidity indications were neutral this week, thanks to ongoing panic inflows of cash from Europe, as well as the fact that the Fed finally started settling the MBS purchase commitments that have been building up, but had gone unsettled since October. These positive flows offset the negatives of bank and FCB selling of Treasuries....
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Minyanville Interview With Lee Adler: What to Expect From Treasuries, Central Banks, Politics in 2012
What’s the big story for 2012?
I think that finally this’ll be the year that Treasury yields begin to rise. A lot of people, a lot of smart people have been bears on Treasuries and have been wrong about it. The technical work that I do has said ...
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Liquidity Stagnant as Fed Sits on Hands, US Market Health Dependent On European Bank Diarrhea
Liquidity indications were mixed last week, with the Fed still not doing much while foreign central banks were net sellers (see Treasury update). Commercial banks started dumping Treasuries again, but their non-Treasury/non-GSE trading accounts did uptick against a bearish trend. The big plus was again bank inflows which surged massively. Meanwhile the FOMC statement...
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Waiting For The Fed Report?
So am I. I was hoping to get it posted tonight, but the economic chart service I use is having “issues.” As a result the ETA for this report now looks to be tomorrow afternoon. I apologize for the delay. I can tell you that the composite liquidity indicator continues to mark time. It...
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Mo Money, Mo Problems
(As someone who uses cash for virtually every financial transaction, I find the premise of this article somewhat worrisome. About two years ago, I first began to realize that a Cashless Society is likely inevitable when I heard a bevy of terrorism "ex...
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Treasury 4-Week Bill A Huge $11 Billion Above Forecast
CUSIP: 9127952Y6Term and Type: 4-Week BillOffering Amount: $35,000,000,000Auction Date: 12/13/2011Issue Date: 12/15/2011Maturity Date: 01/12/2012PDF version of the announcementXML version of the announcement
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When Things Fall Apart: Disorientation, Desperation, Chaos
The global "shadow" banking system is unraveling, with dire consequences for financial assets and failed policies.We're not used to things falling apart, and so our first reaction is disorientation. What we've been trained to expect by constant interve...
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