Tag Archive for Bulge

Weakening Federal Withholding Tax Collections Do Not Bode Well For Employment

This report is an excerpt from the permanent Employment Chart page.  The edge that Federal Withholding Tax collections had held over last year continued to narrow last week, suggesting a weakening employment picture in May. The chart below compares current withholding tax collections with last year on the same date. This year collections have been…

Primary Dealers Prepare to Abandon Ship

The bulge in tax withholding has ended and so has the brief semi-vacation from huge Treasury supply. That will make conditions a little tougher on the Treasury bulls. Also making it tougher will be the likelihood of a normal cyclical downturn in foreign central bank buying due over the next few weeks. A recent trend…

Treasury Market Panic Reversal Due To Little Known Forces Called Supply and Demand

The Treasury market panic saw a bit of a reversal this week, partly due to an unexpected, large increase in supply because of a sharp drop in Federal tax revenues over the past couple of weeks, and partly due to the market misunderstanding of Thursday morning’s news. The “better than expected” weekly unemployment claims data…

Much Ado About Reserve Growth

Critics of the Fed have expressed concern about the inflationary implications of the huge expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, particularly excess reserves. The reserve bulge was created  when the Fed expanded the alphabet soup programs in 2008. At the same time the Fed began paying interest on reserves, paying 1%, which was .75% above…