A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Posts Tagged ‘ Bls ’
Weakening Federal Withholding Tax Collections Do Note Bode Well For Employment
This report is an excerpt from the permanent Employment Chart page. The edge that Federal Withholding Tax collections had held over last year continued to narrow last week, suggesting a weakening employment picture in May. The chart below compares current withholding tax collections with last year on the same date. This year collections have...
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Nonfarm payrolls should fall by 377,000 (But they won’t)
Let’s play “guess the nonfarm payrolls.” After all, our guess is as good as the conomists’, whose forecasts nicely fit a random distribution of hits and misses month in and month out. My guess? The headline non farm payrolls number would be reported as a drop of 337,000 tomorrow if you believe the withholding...
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Job Reports, Much Ado About Nothing
There has been much ado about the US employment numbers both from surveys and the BLS. Most of this centers around bogus numbers from the BLS, but I prefer to jump to the quick, and look at withholding taxes. Really what difference does it make if there are few hundred thousand new jobs if they are...
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Unemployment Claims Data and Economists’ Exploding Brain Syndrome
With the mainstream media reporting the seasonally adjusted first time unemployment claims down by 6,000 it’s time for a reminder that this number is fake, and may or may not give an accurate representation of the trend. If it does, it’s purely a coincidence. Economists and financial journos are in love with the seasonally...
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U.S. Underclass to serve U.S. Ruling Class Forever
Slowly, over the last year, it’s begun to dawn on us: The economic recovery isn’t really making a dent in unemployment. ...
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Empire State Survey indicates contraction, Inflation rate lower
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Misc: Empire State Survey indicates contraction, Inflation rate lower, French Bank Rating Reviewed
by CalculatedRisk on 6/15/2011 08:30:00 AM
• From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The Empire State Manufact...
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With Small Businesses Sidelined, the U.S. Job Market is Headed for a Double-Dip
After showing some improvement over the past year, the U.S. job market is now beginning a double-dip.
The reason is simple: The number of start-up businesses has hit its lowest level since at least the early 1990s.
Indeed, small businesses are the main drivers of job growth and no...
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Weak Employment Growth Should Not Have Surprised
The market was disappointed with Friday’s employment data. But actual total employment, as opposed to the widely reported seasonally adjusted numbers, was nowhere near the catastrophe that the market’s reaction made it seem. The problem was that economists’ expectations were misguided, partly as a result of their focus on seasonally adjusted fictitious data which...
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Ugly, Disappointing Jobs Report from ADP
With the May non-farm payroll report coming out Friday morning, the market's focus remains on the labor market. And we got a less-than-reassuring glimpse of the jobs picture through the weaker-than-expected report this morning from payroll processor...
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What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index
May 13, 2011 monthly update
Note from dshort: The charts below have been updated to include the May Consumer Price Index news release, for the April data. The Fed justified the current round of quantitative easing "to promote a stronger pace of ...
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Where Not To Go If Inflation is Real
The Fed likes to strip out the prices of things that are rising in price when it measures inflation, focusing on the “core rate”, rather than the “headline rate.” The core rate excludes food and energy, in other words, the core rate excludes “necessities.” That rate rose by just 0.2% in February, so no...
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Employment in Pictures Because 1000 Words Were Dropped From Labor Force
Total nonfarm payrolls fell by 2.9 million in January from December. These are the actual numbers, not the Bureau of Liar Statistics seasonal fudge pack which usually obscure the truth, or completely mislead. In order to reveal how the current numbers stack up, it is only necessary to compare them to past years. Given...
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Employment in Pictures Because 1000 Words Were Dropped From Labor Force
Total nonfarm payrolls fell by 2.9 million in January from December. These are the actual numbers, not the Bureau of Liar Statistics seasonal fudge pack which usually obscure the truth, or completely mislead. In order to reveal how the current numbers ...
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Russ Winter’s Actionable- Looting the IMF
A break in the endless transfer payments scheme and props to the US consumer economy may be developing as there is no support for extending unemployment benefits beyond 99 weeks. 400,000 a month would lose benefits. So now apparently unemployment is only going to be in part a permanent entitlement program. According to the BLS, a...
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Jobs Report to Crush Stocks, Lift Treasuries- Professional Edition
The month to date tax receipts for the full month of February are out. Withholding taxes were down 2.3% year to year. That’s a big improvement in the rate of decline over recent months. The change was only -0.6% versus January. This is the best performance since 2007 when the month to month change...
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Mr. Green Shoots The Dead Cat
The BLS announced its estimate for June new home sales today, and the results were much ballyhooed as more evidence of green shoots. To me it looks more like a dead cat bouncing. One thing that isn’t bouncing is prices. I’ve included a couple of charts in the body of the report for your...
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The Real Unemployment Rate
Let’s stop kidding ourselves. The sugar coated headline unemployment rate reported by the government is completely bogus. The real unemployment rate buried in the Federal Government’s data tables, including discouraged workers and those who are considered marginally attached or working part-time because they cannot find full time work, is now 12.2%, the highest it...
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Weakening Federal Withholding Tax Collections Do Note Bode Well For Employment
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You Can’t Fool Mother Nature For Long: Mainstream Media
The Corporate Media in the U.S. is a handmaiden to the Financial and Political Elites, issuing simulacra of "news" and "analysis" in service of the Status Quo. If there is any America "industry" ripe for widespread discrediting, it is the U.S. Cor...
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