I’m struggling to find a different way to say the same thing again… Ah, the hell with it. The 10-12 month cycle projection is...
Read More »
Radio Free Wall Street
Posts Tagged ‘ Alphabet Soup ’
"Not a Crisis, But a Negotiation"
Not a Crisis, But a Negotiation
July 21st, 2011
By David Goldman
The financial punditeska had no clue what was about to befall them in the Spring of 2008. From July 2007 through August 2008, I told anyone who cared to ask me that their world was abo...
Read More »
An essay from January 30, 2009…
I wrote this back at what proved to be the height of the crisis. I had occasion to find it and reread it. Interesting reading in retrospect...
January 30, 2009
I had dinner last night with a guy whose career wandered through nearly a half-dozen majo...
Read More »
Fed SOMA and The Economy- The Puppetmaster
It’s mind boggling to me, just mind boggling, how nobody gets the simplicity of the pipeline from Ben Bernanke’s twisted brain to his henchmen the Primary Dealers, to the stock market and the economy. When the Fed pumps money into Primary Dealer trading accounts, they manipulate stock prices higher. When stock prices go up,...
Read More »
The Fed Caused The Recession
As you know I have never had any doubt that the Fed directly caused the 2008 market collapse. Back in September 2008 I was calling attention to the fact that what the Fed was doing would cause a market crash.
Now I can also say, unequivocally, th...
Read More »
Far Goes Katchadakota
Michael Derby had a piece in the Journal covering Minneapolis Fed Pres Catchadodgedakota saying the new Fed asset buys won’t do much. That’s a misdirection play, because the Fed is already levitating the market with QL 1.5. It is not what or how much the Fed buys that matters. Purchases from Primary Dealers goose...
Read More »
Fed Feeds Vicious Spiral – Professional Edition
The Fed’s balance sheet shrank dramatically last week as MBS prepayments, GSE maturities, alphabet soup paydowns, and shrinkage of that murky and mysterious “Other” category outraced the beginning of the Fed’s direct purchases of Treasuries. If the current pace of MBS payoffs continues, and it’s likely to as long as competing rates of return...
Read More »
Liquidity Crisis Approaches
The Fed’s balance sheet took a big jump last week as settlements of forward MBS purchases more than offset reductions in the alphabet soup programs being shut down as well as the little noticed roll off of some maturing GSE paper. GSE maturities totaling $29 billion over the next year will play a small...
Read More »
Tax Revenues Plunge Again, More Supply Ahead- Professional Edition
The Fed’s balance sheet shrank again last week as it settled only a couple billion in securities purchases which wasn’t enough to offset declining levels of alphabet soup. The Treasury market got whacked by big supply. Even though bid covers were strong, buyers wanted higher yields as they bought into the economic recovery story,...
Read More »
Read It and Weep- Professional Edition
The Fed’s balance sheet made a giant sucking sound this week as the Fed added little in the way of new securities holdings and alphabet soup programs continued to contract. This week that contraction was huge. The Fed’s shrinking balance sheet was mimicked by the stock market, as Ben’s Pawn and Loan put the...
Read More »
Forgive Me Lord, This is a Big One- Professional Edition
Fed credit rose last week, as the Fed bought GSEs, Treasuries and MBS. These purchases were more than enough to offset declining Alphabet Soup. Total Fed credit has been rising rapidly over the past 7 weeks but is still below the high set in December and April’s secondary peak. At the same time, an...
Read More »
Complexion of Fed Support To Change- Professional Edition
Fed credit rose last week, as the Fed bought GSEs, Treasuries and MBS. They helped to stabilize the Treasury market and drive rates down at the short end by settling nearly $60 billion in forward MBS purchase commitments. These purchases were more than enough to offset declining Alphabet Soup. Total Fed credit has been...
Read More »
Happy Anniversary Bad News Update
by Spock Sept. 5 (Wall Street Examiner Wire) — Okay, it’s now been a full year since the implosion of Fannie, Freddie, the FHLBs, and the rest of the financial gamblers on the weekend of September 7th-8th, 2008″ So, what’s changed? Or a more appropriate question should be: “What HASN’T changed?” Well, here is...
Read More »
Much Ado About Reserve Growth
Critics of the Fed have expressed concern about the inflationary implications of the huge expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, particularly excess reserves. The reserve bulge was created when the Fed expanded the alphabet soup programs in 2008. At the same time the Fed began paying interest on reserves, paying 1%, which was .75%...
Read More »
They Know All, We Know Nothing- Professional Edition
The Fed’s balance sheet shrinkage trend continued this week as ongoing drops in Alphabet Soup outstripped the amount of securities the Fed bought directly. Commercial paper’s shrinkage problem also continued, as did that of retail money market funds as holders liquidated in order to meet current obligations. Click here to download complete report in...
Read More »
Show Me The Frickin Money- Professional Edition
Its balance sheet grew this week as the Fed closed on a large amount of forward purchases of MBS. That and their GSE and Treasury purchases were enough to offset a large decline in alphabet soup. Since mid March, the trend of increasing Fed securities holdings and declining alphabet soup have exactly offset one...
Read More »
The Incredible Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet- Professional Edition
The Fed’s balance sheet contracted again last week as the alphabet soup programs continued to contract, and the Fed didn’t do enough direct buying of securities to offset that drop prior to the Wednesday statement date. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free...
Read More »
No Soup for You- Professional Edition Fed Report
The Fed’s balance sheet contracted again this week as the alphabet soup programs continued to contract, and the Fed didn’t do enough direct buying of securities to offset that drop prior to the Wednesday statement date. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free...
Read More »
Big Contraction in Fed’s Balance Sheet- Professional Edition
The Fed’s balance sheet took a huge drop last week. In spite of all of the direct buying of securities total Fed credit has actually declined slightly since December thanks to the winding down of many of the Fed’s alphabet soup programs, some of which have already gone back to zero balances. Meanwhile the...
Read More »
Fed Pumping Up But Money Supply Down – Professional Edition
In addition to shrinkage in commercial paper outstanding over the past few weeks, we are also beginning to see sustained declines in money market fund holdings and money supply. It’s too early to say if the drop in reported money supply is a trend. I think the money supply numbers are out of touch...
Read More »
Fed Report Update – Professional Edition
The market sailed through 3 Treasury auctions unscathed today. 4 week bills, 52 week bills, and 3 year notes all went off without a hitch, raising $40 billion in new cash. The market had no trouble absorbing the new supply, thanks to continued panic levels of buying and support from Ben and Co. Bid/cover...
Read More »
A Shocker, Fed Balance Sheet Collapses- Professional Edition
The biggest shocker this week came in Thursday night’s H41. Fed credit outstanding virtually collapsed with reductions in alphabet soup programs outpacing direct Fed purchase of securities by nearly 8 to 1. The biggest reductions were in the major programs, TAF, CPR, PDCF, and currency swaps with FCBs. Banks’ deposits at the Fed were...
Read More »
Let The Games Continue – Professional Edition Fed Report
While the Fed engages in direct purchases of Treasuries and Agencies and plays games in the MBS market, its alphabet soup programs are shrinking. But the sustained buying of Government and GSE paper is putting a lot of cash into the accounts of the Primary Dealers. Apparently they are using it to gun the...
Read More »
Drop In The Bucket- Professional Edition Fed Report
The Fed only slightly increased the size of the Fed’s balance sheet this week as MBS and GSE holdings increased while Alphabet Soup programs declined slightly. This small net addition in the Fed’s balance sheet was not nearly enough to halt the continuing meltdown in the stock market and Treasury market. Click here to...
Read More »
Alphabet Soup Stress Disorder
This week’s Fed H41 showed that the Fed’s balance sheet collapse continued. Fed credit has now been down 7 weeks in a row, and the numbers aren’t small. The bulk of the plunge has been in currency swaps with foreign central banks, but other programs were down as well. The Fed issued new terms...
Read More »
Fed Pushes On String – Professional Edition
The Fed shrank its balance sheet this week. When they do it once it’s one thing, but when the number is downtrending over 4 weeks it’s time to sit up and take notice. The Fed is apparently having a problem forcing credit into the system. It’s also playing another little noticed game that has...
Read More »
Fed Puts US in the Breach, Again – Professional Edition
Today I got sick to my stomach when the Fed announced two more alphabet soup du jour programs. One program will involve the direct purchase of GSE and MBS paper by the Fed. that’s another $600 billion that the Fed will add to its books. This action was necessitated by the ending of the...
Read More »
The Great Circle Jerk- Professional Edition Fed Report
The Fed released its H41 balance sheet report tonight, and there was nothing new. It’s all bad. The Fed has engaged the market in a circle jerk, sucking funds in from the banking system by paying interest on reserves only to lend those funds out to the system via the alphabet soup programs. But...
Read More »
Fed Report Publication Note
The Fed Report will not be published today. There were no Treasury Auctions, no new Treasury Announcements, and no substantive changes in any of the other data tracked in the report except for the Mortgage Applications Index. That showed a steep drop to another 7 year low, below the lowest level recorded in 2001....
Read More »
Copyright © 2012 The Wall Street Examiner. All Rights Reserved.
Magazine Premium created by Themes by bavotasan.com.
Magazine Premium created by Themes by bavotasan.com.
Recent Comments