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Treasury Grants Brief Respite But Fed Stays Tough

by Lee Adler, November 02 2006 in Money and The Fed
The Fed drained another $6.5 billion from the liquidity pool on Thursday adding $2.5 billion in overnight repos and $8 billion in 14 day repos against $17 billion in expirations. The 5 day net dropped to a drain of $4.57 billion. That coupled with $14 billion in Treasury settlements today pressured the market. Next week's Treasury refunding will have a short term $25 billion paydown settling the following week, but that will be absorbed within two weeks. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Precious Metals Update - November 2, 2006

by Lee Adler, November 02 2006 in Precious Metals
Today's gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensible daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Acting Its Age

by Lee Adler, November 01 2006 in Today's Markets
The market is in the 6 month cycle high time window, and it's beginning to act like it. The majority of short term and intermediate indicators have gradually ticked to the sell side over the last few days. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Fed Brinksmanship

by Lee Adler, November 01 2006 in Money and The Fed
The System Open Market Account (SOMA) reached the top of the 5 month flat channel and the underside of the 5% long term growth channel on Tuesday, before pulling back today. To maintain the 5% growth rate in the SOMA, the Fed will need to keep pumping through the top of the flat pattern. Otherwise it would be signaling a tighter money growth policy, suggesting that Bernanke is still more concerned about inflation than any signs of an economic slowdown. An upside breakout would mean that the Fed intends to encourage inflation. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Bellwether Update November 1, 2006

by Lee Adler, November 01 2006 in The Long and The Short
18 leading bellwether stocks are hitting, or are near intermediate projections. The following charts show the status of 18 large cap bellwether stocks. The charts include 13-week cycle centered moving average projections (or 6-7 week if the 13 week cycle projection is not available). See the daily screens and Charts of the Day in the Daily Markets update for selections on a more broadly quantified, and timelier, basis. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Tipping Point

by Lee Adler, October 31 2006 in Today's Markets
Cycle based stock screen data weakened as intermediate broad market indicators began to gingerly tick to the sell side. The aggregate net differential between buy side and sell side indications in our screens slipped below the bottom of the 3 month range. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Dollar Index Update 10/31/06

by Lee Adler, October 31 2006 in Currency Watch
Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Yield Update 10/31/06

by Lee Adler, October 31 2006 in Fixed Income Markets
Latest cycle conditions and projections for the 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Fed and FCBs Step Up

by Lee Adler, October 31 2006 in Money and The Fed
The Fed added $10.43 billion to the liquidity pool on Wednesday with a $1.43 billion permanent purchase (settling tomorrow) and $9 billion in overnight repos, against no expirations. The 5 day net rose to an add of $10.18 billion. That looks huge until you consider that $18.5 billion in new Treasury paper auctioned last week settles today. Miraculously, rates and yields have been falling across the spectrum since early last week. We can thank the foreign central banks who have been in a buying frenzy. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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The Latest and The Greatest

by Lee Adler, October 30 2006 in Today's Markets
We have arrived safely at our newly rented Florida home. The movers have come and gone; I am surrounded by boxes, some empty, some partially empty, and a few still full, but at least I'm here, and anxious to get you up to speed with the latest and the greatest from our indicators. We have a lot of catching up to do, and it's late, so let's start with the basics and get caught up in the days ahead. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Pounding Rhythm to the Brain

by Lee Adler, October 24 2006 in Today's Markets
The market took a breather on Tuesday, as it waited for the Fed announcement. The stock screen data showed a small uptick. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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More Grease Needed

by Lee Adler, October 24 2006 in Money and The Fed
The Fed needs to supply a lot more grease by Thursday or there will be trouble as the new issues settle. Interest rates continued to move higher today. The stock market finally wobbled a bit under the building liquidity pressure. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Sow 36,000

by Lee Wheeler, October 24 2006 in Today's Markets
With the Sow Jones now over 12,000--2% higher than it was 6 years ago--the financial media is back interviewing all the guys who wrote those "Dow 36,000" and "Dow 100,000" books back during the bubble years.

Not surprisingly, they're still wildly bullish.   Read More →     No comments   

Longer and Stronger

by Lee Adler, October 23 2006 in Today's Markets
Most broad market indicators continue to whipsaw around high levels. The SPX is almost at the top of the intermediate trend channels again, and it has pierced a major long term trendline. The more separation the market creates from that trendline in the short run, the longer and stronger this uptrend is likely to be. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Waiting For The Dough

by Lee Adler, October 23 2006 in Today's Markets
Now that the Treasury is back to beggaring the markets, rates are moving higher, ratcheting upward again at today's auctions. The stock market was able to ignore the building liquidity pressure, as call writers bought back the long side of their hedges that got called away this morning. That's temporary. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Today's Markets | Stock Charts

Ain't No Stoppin' Us Now

by Lee Adler, October 22 2006 in Today's Markets
With the Dow now trading above long term cycle moving averages, all of which are still in gear to the upside, the bulls continue to have momentum in their favor. Compared with recent long term cycles, this one lacks power, but it is not unlike the initial stage of the 1995 upleg which went on for 18 months without a meaningful correction. The battle of 12,000 is not over yet, however. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Money Beats Polls Says Barrons

by Lee Wheeler, October 21 2006 in Trading Examiner



Barrons is out with their version of "Dewey Defeats Truman" this weekend:

"Survivor: The GOP Victory"
"The GOP Will Hang On"

"Jubilant Democrats should reconsider their order for confetti and noisemakers. Even some Republicans privately confess they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it."

Yuk, yuk, yuk.   Read More →     No comments   

Play It Again

by Lee Adler, October 21 2006 in Today's Markets
With the market continuing to churn on Friday, cycle based screen data weakened for the fourth day in a row. But we have seen this before. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Troubling Portents

by Lee Adler, October 20 2006 in Money and The Fed
The Fed still looks less than friendly considering that the Treasury hit the market with a demand for $6 billion in cash to pay for new T-bills issued this week, and is coming back next week for at least $21.5 billion more. That's the first installment in an expected $130-140 billion in new borrowing over the next two months. If the Fed doesn't start giving more help, there will be trouble, especially if the FCBs are cutting back again. There were signs of that in this week's data. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).

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Boom Times For Hedge Funds

by Mark Pierce III, October 19 2006 in Today's Markets
The epic boom in financial speculation of unparalleled proportions continues. Despite the crackup at Amaranth, speculators continue pile even more money into the hedge funds. Dow Jones Markethype reported today that hedge funds pulled in $44.5 billion during the third quarter, the most money that's flowed into the industry during any quarter since at least 2003. Quoting a report from hedge fund Research, Markethype trumpeted, "Investors have put more than $110 billion into hedge funds so far this year, more than twice the amount put into the industry during the whole of 2005."

How many of them are out there now?   Read More →     No comments   

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