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Energy and Iran


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#1 Russ Winter

Russ Winter

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Posted 11 July 2012 - 11:02 PM

There is no evidence of a slow down in liquid oil targets whatsoever:  yes nat gas directed rigs are at 542, down 38% YoY,  but oil rigs remain firm at 1419, up 41% YoY.  Overall rigs are up 4% YoY. Consequently US oil production is running about 750,000 bpd ahead of last year.Posted ImageThe Defense Dept has a new report suggesting the Iran’s anti-ship missile ability has been improved.

“There was a theme that Iran is improving the accuracy and lethality of its missiles,” said Congressional Research Service Iran analyst Kenneth Katzman. “U.S. government reports have previously always downplayed the accuracy and effectiveness of Iran’s missile forces.” “The report seemed pretty sober and respectful of Iran’s capabilities, crediting Iran with improving survivability”.

As ominous is the deployment of a third carrier underway for over a week in the Pacific headed for the Persian Gulf.Posted ImageSpeculative longs in crude oil are no where near excessive.A reminder about oil role in China’s commodity consumption. A buyer at the margin but only 10% of global demand. This needs to be put in perspective.Posted Image

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