The Wall Street Examiner http://wallstreetexaminer.com Get the facts. Tue, 09 Feb 2016 10:40:20 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Gold’s Cycle Projections are Higher, But Beware http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/golds-cycle-projections-are-higher-but-beware/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/golds-cycle-projections-are-higher-but-beware/#respond Tue, 09 Feb 2016 10:33:40 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=283953 With gold edging out of a base pattern, the conventional measuring implication of the breakout would be 1300. Cycle projections are less ebullient and many indicators are at levels consistent with development of intermediate cycle highs. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition Precious Metals Pro…

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With gold edging out of a base pattern, the conventional measuring implication of the breakout would be 1300. Cycle projections are less ebullient and many indicators are at levels consistent with development of intermediate cycle highs.

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Cycle Screening Measures Set Up Increases Odds of Severe Weakness http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/cycle-screening-measures-set-up-for-severe-weakness/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/cycle-screening-measures-set-up-for-severe-weakness/#respond Tue, 09 Feb 2016 09:02:04 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=283951 Cycle screening measures weakened on Monday. All 9 measures were weaker. Just 2 of them remain on the buy side on balance. The aggregate measure fell deep into negative territory but is not near oversold by bear market standards. Daily Market Update Pro subscribers (Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format. The…

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Cycle screening measures weakened on Monday. All 9 measures were weaker. Just 2 of them remain on the buy side on balance. The aggregate measure fell deep into negative territory but is not near oversold by bear market standards.

Daily Market Update Pro subscribers (Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

The end of week report is available to Weekly Market Update subscribers. Click here to find the latest weekly report.

Not yet a subscriber? Try the Market Update Pro risk free for 90 days If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Start your risk free subscription now and get instant access.

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Stock Market Secular Trend Indicator Breaks 3 Years of Lows http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/stock-market-secular-trend-indicator-breaks-3-years-of-lows/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/stock-market-secular-trend-indicator-breaks-3-years-of-lows/#respond Mon, 08 Feb 2016 22:48:48 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=283889 The market broke a couple of key support levels before rebounding to close above them. The SPX still managed to notch the lowest closing price yet in this bear market.  A key long term trend indicator also made a new low, breaking a string of lows dating back to late 2012. If it stays that way…

The post Stock Market Secular Trend Indicator Breaks 3 Years of Lows was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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The market broke a couple of key support levels before rebounding to close above them. The SPX still managed to notch the lowest closing price yet in this bear market.  A key long term trend indicator also made a new low, breaking a string of lows dating back to late 2012. If it stays that way through the end of this week it would be another sign confirming that the secular bubble market ended in mid 2015 and that we have been in not just a cyclical but also a secular bear market since then.

This report shows the indicators along with the targets and time frames as well as support and resistance levels to watch for short term and intermediate time frames.

Daily Market Update Pro subscribers (Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

The end of week report is available to Weekly Market Update subscribers. Click here to find the latest weekly report.

Not yet a subscriber? Try the Market Update Pro risk free for 90 days If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Start your risk free subscription now and get instant access.

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Enter your email address in the form to receive email notification when Professional Edition reports are posted.

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The Spook In the Casino—–Recession Just Ahead, Part 1 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/spook-casino-recession-just-ahead-part-1/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/spook-casino-recession-just-ahead-part-1/#respond Mon, 08 Feb 2016 21:17:33 +0000 http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/?p=90607 The wise guys keep buying the dips owing to the simple proposition that there is never a lasting bear market without a recession. So after today’s blow-out we are likely to get another call to scoop up the “bargains” because the correction has run its course and the US economy is still chugging along notwithstanding the…

The post The Spook In the Casino—–Recession Just Ahead, Part 1 was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of David Stockman's Contra Corner » Stockman’s Corner. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

The wise guys keep buying the dips owing to the simple proposition that there is never a lasting bear market without a recession. So after today’s blow-out we are likely to get another call to scoop up the “bargains” because the correction has run its course and the US economy is still chugging along notwithstanding the contretemps in China and other places of purportedly limited moment.

Indeed, on the basis of Wall Street’s muscle memory alone there is surely another dead cat bounce on its way any day. But here’s the memo. BTFDs is not working any more and, more crucially, there is a recession coming and soon. And then the bear will maul, not simply paw as today.

The fact is, BTFD hasn’t worked on a net basis hasn’t for about 730 days now. The S&P 500 closed today where it first crossed in February 2014.
^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts

In light of this extended dwell time in no man’s land, it is not surprising that the market is getting spooked. After all, the real driver of the post-March 2009 rebound of the stock indices was the Fed’s massive intrusion in money and capital markets, not a sustainable recovery of main street business activity or real household incomes. Real net CapEx is still below 2007 levels, for example, as is the real median household income.

And most certainly the market’s 220% gain between the post-recession bottom of 670 and the May 2015 peak of 2130 was not owing to an explosion of corporate earnings. If you set aside Wall Street’s annually renewable ex-items hockey stick, what you actually have on the profits front is a paltry 8% cummulative gain since the pre-crisis earnings peak way back in June 2007.

That’s right. S&P earnings on an honest GAAP reported basis peaked at $85 per share in the LTM period for June 2007, and posted at just $90.66 during Q3 2015; and based on Q4 filings to date, are certain to be down another dollar or two per share in the current quarter.

Thus, based on the most recent reporting, S&P 500 earnings are off by 14.4% from the current cycle’s peak, thereby replicating the exact pattern which occurred during the 2007-2009 collapse. While the Wall Street hockey sticks were projecting earnings of $120 per share or more for 2008, actual GAAP earnings starting falling after the June 2007 LTM period, and kept plunging until they hit bottom at $7 per share in June 2009.

S&P 500 Earnings

The blue bars mark the death throes of a dying bull last time. Self-evidently, this bull market—marked in red—– is not far behind.

The reason, of course, is that a recession is coming. As I suggested in debunking another phony jobs report from the BLS last Friday, the world would be far better off if they simply shutdown the BLS. Adding up minimum wage gigs a few hours per week with full time employment slots in a factory, as per the establishment survey, is a completely stupid, useless and profoundly misleading waste of time.

If we need aggregated data on employment trends, the US government itself already publishes a far more timely and representative measure of Americans at work. It’s called the treasury’s daily tax withholding report, and it has this central virtue: No employer sends Uncle Sam cash for model imputed employees, as does the BLS in its trend cycle projections and birth/death model; nor do real businesses forward withholding taxes in behalf of the guesstimated number of seasonally adjusted payroll records for phantom employees who did not actually report for work.

Stated differently, the daily tax withholding report is the real thing and the whole thing; it captures the labor input of the entire US economy in real time, and does not get revised and manipulated endlessly over the course of months and years from its original release.

Now it is strongly pointing to recession dead ahead.

As I indicated in the last post, my colleague Lee Adler has been tracking the daily withholding reports for more than a decade and knows their details and rhythms inside-out. He now reports that tax collections are swooningjust as they always do when the US economy enters a recession.

In fact, his latest report as of February 6th indicates that,

“The annual rate of change in withholding taxes has shifted from positive to negative. It has grown increasingly negative in inflation adjusted terms for more than a month. Following on the heels of a weak December, it is a clear sign that the US has entered recession……..the implied real growth rate is now roughlynegative 4.5% per year……it is the most negative growth rate since the recession. It follows the longest stretch of zero growth in several years, This can no longer be considered temporary or an anomaly. It has all the earmarks of a trend reversal and is getting worse.”

Withholding Tax Collections Annual Growth- Click to enlarge

Needless to say, the starting point for overcoming the casino’s blind spot with respect to the oncoming recession is to recognize that payroll jobs as reported by the BLS are a severely lagging indicator. Here is what happened to the headline jobs count in just the 12 months after May 2008. The resulting 4.6% plunge would amount to a nearly a 7 million job loss from current levels.

In the next installment we will review the reasons why Keynesians and Wall Street bulls cannot see the recession coming, starting with the phony notion of the oil tax cut. But here is a hint.

Last year the US economy consumed 19.37 million barrels per day (mb/d) of petroleum products, but produced 13.74 mb/d of petroleum liquids. The latter included 3.26 mb/d of natural gas liquids and nearly 1 mb/d of ethanol on top of 9.43 mb/d of crude oil. So net imports were only 5.63 million mb/d or just 29% of consumption.

And that’s the starting point for the so-called oil tax cut. To wit, the nation’s annual net import volume was about 2 billion barrels. Accordingly, every $10 of lower oil prices amount’s to just 0.1% of GDP or the equivalent of $3.25 per week for each US household. 

On the pure math of it, that doesn’t make for an economic bonanza, but the story is actually far worse. Next we will consider the F-150 indicator to explicate the reasons why.

Wall Street Examiner Disclaimer: The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. I curate these posts on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. No promotional consideration has been offered or accepted. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler and no endorsement of the content so provided is either expressed or implied by our posting the content. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. The Wall Street Examiner is not familiar with the services offered and makes no endorsement or recommendation regarding them. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of third party providers.

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Uneasy Feeling: Treasury Yield Curve Flattens To Lowest Since Jan 2008 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/uneasy-feeling-treasury-yield-curve-flattens-lowest-since-jan-2008/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/uneasy-feeling-treasury-yield-curve-flattens-lowest-since-jan-2008/#respond Mon, 08 Feb 2016 20:34:57 +0000 http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/?p=45596 Between China and Europe, financial markets have an uneasy feeling. The 10Y-2Y US Treasury Yield Curve has just fallen to its lowest level since January 2008. Despite all the massive stimulus from The Federal Reserve. And with the decline came the US bank stock prices. Yes, financial markets have an unpeaceful, uneasy feeling about things. […]

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

Between China and Europe, financial markets have an uneasy feeling.

The 10Y-2Y US Treasury Yield Curve has just fallen to its lowest level since January 2008.

ycurve2008

Despite all the massive stimulus from The Federal Reserve.

ustfed

And with the decline came the US bank stock prices.

ycbanka

Yes, financial markets have an unpeaceful, uneasy feeling about things. And like Jeffrey Lebowsky, I hate the f***ing Eagles.

levbcab

Wall Street Examiner Disclaimer: The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. I curate these posts on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. No promotional consideration has been offered or accepted. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler and no endorsement of the content so provided is either expressed or implied by our posting the content. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. The Wall Street Examiner is not familiar with the services offered and makes no endorsement or recommendation regarding them. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of third party providers.

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The Market Crash Will Start by June 20 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/market-crash-will-start-june-20/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/market-crash-will-start-june-20/#respond Mon, 08 Feb 2016 19:12:26 +0000 http://moneymorning.com/?p=204301 Today I am issuing an official Super Crash Warning. That means we are on the verge of a serious market crash in the near future, which I now predict will hit by summer, June 20, 2016,

The post The Market Crash Will Start by June 20 was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning - We Make Investing Profitable. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

Folks, today I am issuing an official Super Crash Warning. That means we are on the verge of a serious market crash in the near future, which I now predict will hit by summer, June 20, 2016, and it’s not going to be a good one.

It must seem like I never have any good news for you, but it’s my job to see the world as it is, not as I’d like it to be, and what I see is things getting worse by the day:

  1. stock market sell-offFINANCIAL STOCKS ARE CRUMBLING. U.S. bank stocks have fallen 30% to 40% over the last few months, a very bad sign. Just look at the charts of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)… These stocks are very sensitive to systemic instability. Private equity stocks are getting crushed too – Apollo Global Management LLC (NYSE: APO), Ares Management LP (NYSE: ARES), KKR & Co. LP (NYSE: KKR), Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX), Carlyle Group (Nasdaq: CG), Fortress Investment Group LLC (NYSE: FIG). I warned you last week about Deutsche Bank (DB) and the coming collapse in European bank stocks – but if you look at their bonds and credit default swaps, the news is even more ominous. The thing all of these companies have in common is heavy exposure to the high debt levels that built up since the financial crisis. The market is telling us that it is very worried that the Debt Supercycle is over and that a lot of this debt isn’t going to be paid back.
  1. ESTABLISHED HEDGE FUNDS ARE FAILING. The Wall Street Journal just reported that Orange Capital is shutting down after a decade in business. Meanwhile, Chase Coleman, one of the most successful Tiger Cubs, took a hit of 14% in January. Larry Robbins’ Glenview Capital Management, one of the most successful managers over the last decade, lost an incredible 21% in January after being down 17% in 2015. Bill Ackman was reportedly down double digits again in January after a 20% loss in 2015. For many of the best managers in the hedge fund game, it seems the game has changed. They can’t make money when the U.S. Federal Reserve isn’t pumping massive amounts of money into the system – but that’s because hedge funds were in a bubble like everything else, and the bubble has burst. It turns out that very few hedge fund managers can make money in today’s world (I am happy to report that I am one of them – my own fund made good money in 2015 and even made a profit in January 2016, when markets were blistered with losses).
  1. THE HIGH-FLYING TECH STOCKS ARE GETTING CRUSHED. Check out Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX), Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), LinkedIn Corp. (NYSE: LNKD), Tesla Motors Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA), all down 15% to 20% so far this year. It’s a bloodbath. Only Alphabet Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOGL) and FacebookInc. (Nasdaq: FB) are doing well, and both are overvalued and due to come back to earth.
  1. THE DAMAGE IN THE HIGH-YIELD BOND MARKET CONTINUES. The junk bond market is essentially closed to new issues. While the U.S. Federal Reserve finally raised rates by 25 basis points (a move it will probably have to reverse), the market has raised the cost of capital for junk borrowers by hundreds of basis points. This means that many of these borrowers will not be able to refinance their debt when it matures in the next two to three years. That means these companies will default on their debts. Sports Authority is reported to be planning to file for bankruptcy before the end of February, another victim of the retail wars. There will be more as many retail company bonds are trading at distressed levels. The junk bond market will not bottom until late 2017 at the earliest. Junk bonds are among the most credit-sensitive asset classes around, and they are signaling that the economy is weak and big trouble lies ahead.
  1. CHINA – THE EPICENTER OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY – IS A TIME BOMB. It’s not just the $30 trillion in debt. Société Générale came out last week with an important prediction that China will run out of foreign exchange reserves in a matter of months rather than years. That would unleash a currency crisis and banking crisis that spreads quickly throughout Asia, and it won’t stop there. China is an economic and ecological disaster that threatens the entire global economy.
  1. MARKETS ARE LOSING CONFIDENCE IN CENTRAL BANKS… And that is the final straw. The Fed is being openly scoffed at by smart people. I’ve been doing this for years, but now people who used to limit their criticism of the Fed because they were worried about being politically correct (I never had that problem!) are deciding that telling the truth is more important. Instead of showing up on CNBC to sing the Fed’s praises, they are pleading with the Fed to take action to prevent an economic cataclysm. But it’s too late. The Fed waited too long to raise interest rates. ECB President Mario Draghi and Bank of Japan head Haruhiko Kuroda are saying they will do whatever it takes to push up inflation in Europe and Japan regardless of how much global instability it causes. But it is too late for them too. All they can do is cause more damage by destroying their currencies in a desperate attempt to delay the inevitable economic depressions that are going to swallow their economies.

How to Protect Yourself

The world has been taken to the edge of the cliff again by incompetent central bankers – and in the next few months, they are going to jump over the cliff. I don’t want my readers to jump along with them. It must seem like I never have any good news for you, but it’s my job to see the world as it is, not as I’d like it to be, and what I see is things getting worse by the day, but there are a lot of things you can do now.

  • Keep buying gold and silver. They may be out of favor today, but they will save you tomorrow.
  • Make sure you own dollars rather than euros and yen. The U.S. dollar is still the best of a bad bunch.
  • Buy out-of-the-money puts on the S&P 500 as a hedge against the big stock sell-off I think is coming.
  • Buy ProShares Short S&P 500 (NYSE Arca: SH), the short exchange-traded fund (ETF) that goes up when the S&P 500 goes down.
  • Sell the equities you have and move into cash.
  • And if you own junk bonds of any kind, sell them before it’s too late.

Right now is the time to protect yourself, but you will have a chance to buy all kinds of assets at going-out-of-business prices in the not-too-distant future because, to be honest, a lot of companies may go out of business, but the ones that don’t will be trading like they might. My job will be to tell you which ones won’t and help you buy them when they are cheap enough to offer you attractive risk-adjusted returns.

In the meantime, you must protect yourself from the damage that is about to be unleashed by the incompetent central bankers who have destroyed the world.

Don’t panic. Do act now. We are on the brink of the Super Crash.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.

Disclaimer: © 2016 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.

The post The Market Crash Will Start by June 20 appeared first on Money Morning – We Make Investing Profitable.

Wall Street Examiner Disclaimer: The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. I curate these posts on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. No promotional consideration has been offered or accepted. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler and no endorsement of the content so provided is either expressed or implied by our posting the content. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. The Wall Street Examiner is not familiar with the services offered and makes no endorsement or recommendation regarding them. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of third party providers.

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Why Chesapeake Energy Stock Is Falling Today http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/chesapeake-energy-stock-falling-today/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/chesapeake-energy-stock-falling-today/#respond Mon, 08 Feb 2016 17:45:30 +0000 http://moneymorning.com/?p=204295 Chesapeake Energy stock fell as much as 50% Monday morning following a report that the troubled natural gas producer had hired a restructuring firm.

The post Why Chesapeake Energy Stock Is Falling Today was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning - We Make Investing Profitable. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

Investors wondering why Chesapeake Energy stock is falling today need only look at the company’s recent past.

Chesapeake Energy stockThe immediate cause of today’s 50% plunge inChesapeake Energy Corp.(NYSE: CHK) stock this morning (Monday) was the news that the company had hired the restructuring law firm Kirkland & Ellis LLP. Chesapeake is carrying a debt load of $9.8 billion – eight times the company’s market value.

The news broke before markets opened, sending the Chesapeake Energy stock price down 22% in pre-market trading.

But in the minutes after markets opened, CHK stock fell harder. By mid-morning, Chesapeake Energy stock was down as much as 50% to $1.50 a share. Trading of Chesapeake Energy stock was halted at least six times. That’s the lowest intraday price for CHK stock since January 2000.

The company issued a statement late in the morning in an attempt to stop the bleeding. Chesapeake Energy said that “Kirkland & Ellis LLP has served as one of Chesapeake’s counsel since 2010” and that it “currently has no plans to pursue bankruptcy.”

That helped the CHK stock price to recover about half of the day’s losses, but it was still down more than 30% at noon.

Chesapeake’s heavy debt load has weighed on the stock for more than a year and is eating the company alive…

Why Chesapeake Energy Stock (NYSE: CHK) Has Been Hit So Hard

As the second-largest natural gas producer in the United States, Chesapeake Energy has been hit hard by slumping natural gas prices. Natural gas fell by more than a third last year and is down about 50% from mid-2014 levels.

That has choked off Chesapeake’s cash flow and crippled its ability to pay its debts. The downward spiral has forced Chesapeake Energy to lay off 15% of its workers and suspend its dividend.

As its debt matures, Chesapeake doesn’t have the cash to pay it off. Analysts estimate the company will come up short by about $1 billion over the next two years.

CHK stock is down 66% in 2016 alone, and is down 93% over the past 12 months.

Last month, Standard & Poor’s chopped Chesapeake Energy’s debt rating to “CCC+” – well into junk territory. The credit-rating company added that Chesapeake’s debt leverage is “unsustainable,” an assessment that appears confirmed by this morning’s news.

Chesapeake desperately needs natural gas prices to rise, but that isn’t expected to happen anytime soon.

And while Chesapeake Energy says it’s not pursuing bankruptcy, its debt headaches make it a very high-risk company nonetheless.

Needless to say, investors should steer clear of this train wreck. At this point, it’s even too late to take advantage of the sell-off by shorting CHK stock.

The Bottom Line: A report that Chesapeake Energy had enlisted a restructuring firm sent CHK stock tumbling. But while the company denied it was pursuing bankruptcy, its massive debt and weak cash flow have put it in a very precarious position. This is one for investors to watch from the sidelines.

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Disclaimer: © 2016 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.

The post Why Chesapeake Energy Stock Is Falling Today appeared first on Money Morning – We Make Investing Profitable.

Wall Street Examiner Disclaimer: The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. I curate these posts on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. No promotional consideration has been offered or accepted. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler and no endorsement of the content so provided is either expressed or implied by our posting the content. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. The Wall Street Examiner is not familiar with the services offered and makes no endorsement or recommendation regarding them. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of third party providers.

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Greece Is The Word! Here We Go Again — Greek Sovereign Yields And CDS Jump http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/greece-word-go-greek-sovereign-yields-cds-jump/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/greece-word-go-greek-sovereign-yields-cds-jump/#respond Mon, 08 Feb 2016 17:43:29 +0000 http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/?p=45587 Greece is the word! The Greece 10 year sovereign yield and 5 yr CDS are on the rise again.

The post Greece Is The Word! Here We Go Again — Greek Sovereign Yields And CDS Jump was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

Greece is the word!

The Greece 10 year sovereign yield and 5 yr CDS are on the rise again.

greeceisthe wof

Deutsche Bank and the MSCI Europe Banks Index are falling.

DBBANK

As credit risk is on the rise … again.

creditugh

Greek GDP growth is declining. At least it is better than Russia’s and Ukraine’s GDP “growth.”

crisF

Compare Greece’s sovereign yield curve with the Euro Swaps Curve. OPA!!!!!

greeceeuros

Greece is now singing “You’re the one that I want” to Mario Draghi, the ECB and IMF.

saganakiL

Wall Street Examiner Disclaimer: The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. I curate these posts on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. No promotional consideration has been offered or accepted. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler and no endorsement of the content so provided is either expressed or implied by our posting the content. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. The Wall Street Examiner is not familiar with the services offered and makes no endorsement or recommendation regarding them. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of third party providers.

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TWTR Stock Has Further to Fall After Earnings http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/twtr-stock-fall-earnings/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/twtr-stock-fall-earnings/#respond Mon, 08 Feb 2016 17:36:38 +0000 http://moneymorning.com/?p=204290 The TWTR stock price is plummeting before earnings and after the company announced it plans to make changes to its timeline.

The post TWTR Stock Has Further to Fall After Earnings was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning - We Make Investing Profitable. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

Right now, the TWTR stock price is trading at all-time lows before Q4 2015earnings are announced on Feb. 10.

The Twitter stock price opened at $15.51 this morning (Monday) and quickly fell by 3.8% in intraday trading. Part of the reason for the TWTR stock drop was CEO Jack Dorsey announcing plans to change Twitter’s algorithm on how tweets are viewed.

Dorsey wants users to see tweets that the algorithm feels are most relevant to them, which would do away with the current chronological order.

Twitter Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) users created the hashtag #RIPTwitter over the news, and Dorsey sent out this response:

TWTR stock

This potential change highlights a fundamental flaw with Dorsey’s company. And this flaw is going to make the TWTR stock price fall even further after earnings.

But before we get to that, it’s important for Money Morning readers to understand why the Twitter stock price has already dropped 67.8% over the last 12 months.

And that reason is Wall Street’s lack of faith in Jack Dorsey…

There were major concerns when Dorsey became permanent CEO in October over whether or not he could handle running Twitter and his other company, Square Inc. (NYSE: SQ), at the same time.

Dorsey obviously had a lot of experience with Twitter, as he was a co-creator and the original CEO until 2008. But not only does he have the challenge of turning Twitter around, he also has to make Square shareholders happy following the company’s Nov. 19 IPO.

And Dorsey’s attempts to make the social media site easier to use and increase monthly active users (MAUs) have not worked….

In fact, Business Insider reported on Feb. 2 that the number of tweets per day has fallen by more than half since August 2014.

Now investors are turning their focus to Q4 earnings. Analysts expect the company to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.12 on revenue of $479 million.

And after Q4 earnings, this one fundamental flaw could make the TWTR stock price fall even further…

TWTR Stock Price Has Further to Drop After Q4 2015 Earnings

Dorsey changing the timeline highlights Twitter’s fatal flaw: The company doesn’t know what it wants to be.

In Nick Bilton’s 2014 book “Hatching Twitter: A True Story of Money, Power, Friendship, and Betrayal,” he showcased that Twitter was always going to be in trouble.

Former CEO and co-founder Evan Williams always believed that Twitter’s power was its real-time sharing feature. Williams thought that Twitter was a way for people to show what was happening in the world.

Dorsey disagreed with this view. He always thought that it was a tool to share what an individual was doing and what was personally happening to them, similar to the narcissism approach of Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq: FB).

Taking away the order of how tweets are organized blurs the lines of what exactly Twitter is and what it hopes to accomplish even further. This makes it an even more confusing platform for advertisers.

Dorsey is also experimenting with removing the 140-charcter restrictions Twitter is known for and allowing up to 10,000 characters.

These changes are meant to provide Wall Street with an answer to how the company plans to improve, but these are just desperate moves that are being thrown at the wall to see what sticks.

Even if Twitter exceeds expectations on Feb. 10, that doesn’t mean the TWTR stock price will climb. For Q3, analysts had expected the social media company to report $0.04 on $559.6 million in revenue. Twitter reported $0.10 on $569.2 million, but the stock price still dropped 10% at the opening bell the next morning.

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Disclaimer: © 2016 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.

Read the rest of the post TWTR Stock Has Further to Fall After Earnings on Money Morning – We Make Investing Profitable.

Wall Street Examiner Disclaimer: The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. I curate these posts on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. No promotional consideration has been offered or accepted. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler and no endorsement of the content so provided is either expressed or implied by our posting the content. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. The Wall Street Examiner is not familiar with the services offered and makes no endorsement or recommendation regarding them. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of third party providers.

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Why the Silver Price Is Climbing 2% Today http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/silver-price-climbing-2-today/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/silver-price-climbing-2-today/#respond Mon, 08 Feb 2016 17:10:07 +0000 http://moneymorning.com/?p=204282 The silver price is up more than 2% in early trading today (Monday) to $15.33, continuing a 2016 rally for the precious metal.

The post Why the Silver Price Is Climbing 2% Today was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning - We Make Investing Profitable. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

The silver price is up more than 2% in early trading today (Monday) to $15.33, continuing a 2016 rally for the precious metal.

The silver price is now up nearly 10% since the end of January.

Silver prices were aided in the past week by a surprise move from the Bank of Japan, which instituted negative interest rates. Statements about dollar strength by the New York Fed’s president last week also boosted the silver price.

All of this has combined to make for one of the strongest weeks in quite a while for silver prices.  Let’s look more closely at how it got there and what other factors are driving it.

Why the Silver Price Today Is Higher

silver prices

February began with silver priced around $14.30. With only slight volatility through the day, it closed slightly higher at $14.33. The Bank of Japan announcement that seems to have pushed gold quickly higher didn’t have the same effect on the silver price.

On Feb. 3, silver prices popped along with gold, as both reacted very positively to a weaker dollar. This was the day that New York Fed President Bill Dudley said financial conditions had tightened since the Fed’s December rate hike, and that continued strength in the dollar could hurt the U.S. economy.

On this news, the price of silver quickly jumped from $14.40 to $14.80 by 2:00 p.m. It then retreated to settle at $14.67 to close the day.

Now, these are the factors that will have the biggest impact on the silver price moving forward…

What Will Move the Silver Price Now

The U.S. Mint reported silver coin sales were much higher in January. American Eagle silver coins sold at a strong pace, with 5,954,500 coins delivered, which was the highest in two years and a gain of 7.68% from last year.

And in China, it seems the appetite for silver at these low prices has become irresistible. Silver imports into the country have recently reached a four-year high. No doubt, as the Chinese are seeing continuing weakness in their currency, the yuan, they’re looking for a haven to help protect their purchasing power.

Since September, the yuan has lost over 5% against the U.S. dollar, and the Chinese stock and property markets have been pummeled. That has driven many Chinese to look for an alternative store of value, and they’re finding it in silver.

An interesting development has seriously brought into question the effectiveness of the LBMA silver price. On Thursday, Jan. 28, the LMBA set its price for silver at $0.84 below the spot and futures price that morning. 

Keep in mind that the LBMA silver price is crucial as it’s used as a benchmark for producers and traders worldwide to settle contracts.

The difference from spot at $14.42 casts major doubt on the LMBA price, which took 14 minutes to fix a price, at a level that was far from the market price. This is likely to cause major problems for the huge number of market participants who rely on the LMBA silver price.

And lastly, on a technical basis, silver has continued to perform nicely.

silver prices

As you can see from the green curved line I’ve drawn in, silver has exhibited a cup formation.  This is a part of a bullish pattern that, if followed through, could result in a pullback then a new surge higher, called a “cup and handle.”

We’ll need more time to see if this plays out in more or less of a textbook pattern. If it does, then there may be an interesting buying opportunity ahead for silver investors.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.

Disclaimer: © 2016 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.

The post Why the Silver Price Is Climbing 2% Today appeared first on Money Morning – We Make Investing Profitable.

Wall Street Examiner Disclaimer: The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. I curate these posts on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. No promotional consideration has been offered or accepted. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler and no endorsement of the content so provided is either expressed or implied by our posting the content. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. The Wall Street Examiner is not familiar with the services offered and makes no endorsement or recommendation regarding them. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of third party providers.

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