The Wall Street Examiner » Wall Street Examiner Exclusives http://wallstreetexaminer.com Get the facts. Thu, 27 Nov 2014 01:04:21 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Did Bernanke Really Save The World? http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/did-bernanke-really-save-the-world/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/did-bernanke-really-save-the-world/#comments Wed, 26 Nov 2014 22:18:21 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=218148 Ben Bernanke and his teenaged Wall Street media groupies like to claim that he saved the world with QE. But if QE was such a cureall why has the “recovery” in Japan and Europe been so weak? The ECB printed money out the wazoo for a while and the BoJ is giving Japan, the US, and everybody else an all out BoJob. Yet only the US is rising.

The Fed and friends all pump cash into the same banks all around the world. When the Fed prints, the cash goes straight to 22 Primary Dealers, 15 of which are European, Canadian, and Japanese banks. Only 7 are US banks. The Fed is money printer to the world. But so is the BoJ, and so is the ECB. They buy securities from, or lend funds to, the same big fish playing in the same worldwide big fish pond. And those fish like to swim where the waters are warmest. Apparently that’s the US. Its markets and economy are rising faster than anywhere else in the developed world.

So did Bernanke really save the US economy, as the Keynesians and assorted mainstream media windbags claim, or was it something else? Please indulge and allow my to illustrate my thought on the matter.

Frickin Fracking - Click to enlarge

Frickin Fracking – Click to enlarge

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Central Banks Made Lousy Jobs, Soaring Tax Collections, Bad For Most, Good For Bubble Markets http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/central-banks-made-lousy-jobs-soaring-tax-collections-bad-for-most-good-for-markets/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/central-banks-made-lousy-jobs-soaring-tax-collections-bad-for-most-good-for-markets/#comments Wed, 26 Nov 2014 21:48:01 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=218134 In this September 8, 2014 video for Radio Free Wall Street, I talked about why I thought the ECB programs would fail to boost its balance sheet or achieve its goals of boosting inflation or the European economy. I also about the central bank tag teams keep the markets afloat, about why jobs data doesn’t matter to the market trend, and finally what real time tax collections can tell us that lagged, manipulated economic data can’t. It’s all wrapped up in an eye opening 12 minutes that should make you say, Damn!” Or at least “Dang!”

This video was originally published for Radio Free Wall Street subscribers on September 8, 2014. To see the latest videos in real time, subscribe here. Go behind the paper curtain of Wall Street propaganda and get the facts.

See more videos from Lee Adler on The Wall Street Examiner Channel on Youtube.

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For Whom The Consumer Confidence Bell Tolls http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/consumer-confidence-falls-on-extended-trend/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/consumer-confidence-falls-on-extended-trend/#comments Tue, 25 Nov 2014 16:15:14 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=218036 The trend is your friend, but maybe not when it extends to meet a secular downtrend. That’s what the Consumer Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence (aka the ConCon Con) Index showed today. It shocked Street conomists, whose consensus guesstimate was a reading of 96. Instead it came in at 87.

I see little value in this number. While the secular trend has been down for 14 years, reflecting ever worsening conditions for an increasing number of Americans, over the short to intermediate term the index follows stock prices. If memory serves, wasn’t there a sharp market break in October that had everyone in a panic? I suspect that this influenced the “consumers” who were surveyed by the Conference Board in early November.

The mainstream media dutifully reports this number as if it means something in the short run, and even occasionally will post a chart that goes back a few years showing the uptrend in place since 2009. But you almost NEVER see a long term chart in the Wall Street Journal, on Bloomberg, or CNBC. Gee I wonder if they’re trying to con us?

Consumer Confidence Long Term Trend- Click to enlarge

Consumer Confidence Long Term Trend- Click to enlarge

We should also note that the last two peaks in 2000 and 2007 coincided with stock market tops. Does slightly breaking this trend mean that we’ve broken out? Or is it just a little overshoot, a final burst of “optimism” before the secular trend reasserts itself. If the Con Con Con drops below 86 next month, that could be the ringing of the bell. We need not ask not for whom the bell would toll. It would toll for us.

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Why The Economy Isn’t Slowing and Why That’s Bearish – Video 9/23/14 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/why-the-economy-isnt-slowing-and-why-thats-bearish-video-92314/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/why-the-economy-isnt-slowing-and-why-thats-bearish-video-92314/#comments Sat, 22 Nov 2014 19:23:37 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=217732 Lee Adler pulls back the paper curtain of Wall Street propaganda on the housing data and broader, more timely economic data. Housing may be slowing, but the broader economy isn’t. He tells why that’s bearish in the big picture, but a close look at the technical data says it may be a while before the big one.

This video was originally published for Radio Free Wall Street subscribers on September 23, 2014. To see the latest videos in real time, subscribe here. Go behind the paper curtain of Wall Street propaganda and get the facts.

 

See more videos from Lee Adler on The Wall Street Examiner Channel on Youtube.

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Hilsy Rally, The Industrial Revolution, and Why The Bullish Dollar Chart – Video 9/16/14 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/hilsy-rally-the-industrial-revolution-and-why-the-bullish-dollar-chart-video-91614/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/hilsy-rally-the-industrial-revolution-and-why-the-bullish-dollar-chart-video-91614/#comments Sat, 22 Nov 2014 18:56:29 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=217730 Lee Adler pulls back the paper curtain of Wall Street propaganda on the Hilsenrath rally, the real story on the dollar, industrial production, median household income, and the ECB conundrum, that’s right, conundrum, to give you a better handle on what’s really going on behind the headlines.

This video was originally published for Radio Free Wall Street subscribers on September 16, 2014. To see the latest videos in real time, subscribe here. Go behind the paper curtain of Wall Street propaganda and get the facts.

See more videos from Lee Adler on The Wall Street Examiner Channel on Youtube.

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To ECB or Not ECB- Video September 8, 2014 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/to-ecb-or-not-ecb-video-september-8-2014/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/to-ecb-or-not-ecb-video-september-8-2014/#comments Sat, 22 Nov 2014 17:24:55 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=217711 The ECBs new programs were bound to fail. Lee Adler explains why. He also tells why the monthly jobs data doesn’t matter and why it does. These issues remain vital and relevant.

This video was originally published for Radio Free Wall Street subscribers on September 8, 2014. To see the latest videos in real time, subscribe here. Go behind the paper curtain of Wall Street propaganda and get the facts.

See more videos from Lee Adler on The Wall Street Examiner Channel on Youtube.

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Here’s Why The Fed Has Been More Insane Than the PBoC, and The ECB Tries But Fails http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/heres-why-i-think-the-fed-is-more-insane-than-the-pboc/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/heres-why-i-think-the-fed-is-more-insane-than-the-pboc/#comments Sat, 22 Nov 2014 14:13:40 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=217202 I saw this chart on Twitter the other day.

The point of it was that the PBoC makes the rest of the world’s central banks look like pikers in terms of how much they have expanded their balance sheets. Wolf Richter also wrote a post about this phenomenon.

Relative Growth of Central Bank Balance Sheets 2003-14 - Click to enlarge

Relative Growth of Central Bank Balance Sheets 2003-14 – Click to enlarge

But is the PBoC really worse than the rest of the criminals who run the world’s money printing business?

Relative index charts are funny things. You can make them show different relationships based on the start date. This chart represents change rates from the base year of 2003, but if the base year is 2008, you would see a very different result.

Yes, the PBoC was running wild from 2003 to 2008 as it tried to maintain the Yuan peg against a falling dollar. But since 2008 the PBoC has grown its balance sheet by “only” 90%. Since 2008 the Fed has grown by around 700%.  Who’s the irresponsible central bank over the past six years?

After I tweeted my thought to him, the next day Zschaepitz agreed and illustrated it with another nice chart, this time beginning in 2008.

From 2003 to to the present the Fed’s balance sheet has grown by 570%. The PBoC has grown by approximately 572%. There isn’t much difference between the two. The primary difference is that the PBoC’s period of greatest madness preceded the Fed’s, but the Fed has caught up. The PBoC is run by a criminal gang that tells us what it wants us to know. As Wolf pointed out in his piece, we don’t really know the facts on just how big the PBoC balance sheet really is. But the Fed’s balance sheet has grown 8 times faster than what the PBoC has reported. If that’s not criminally insane, what is? The Fed may be less opaque than the PBoC, but it is just as criminal.

The data that we do have does not support the idea that the PBoC is any worse than the Fed. Over the past 6 years, the Fed has outprinted the PBoC by orders of magnitude and has caught up with the PBoC in its monetary madness.  At least when the PBoC was printing in multiples from 2003 to 2008, it ostensibly had a reason- to keep its export economy expanding at a rapid clip by suppressing its currency against the dollar. Since that need has abated, the PBoC has been a relative model of decorum since 2008. The Fed has been anything but. Its excuses have been flimsy.

As for the ECB, it has talked the talk of a money printer but it hasn’t walked the walk. It is prevented from doing so by its own rules and by a stupidly conceived negative deposit rate that encourages its member banks to do the opposite of what the ECB wants, and extinguish their deposits at the ECB by paying down their loans from the ECB. The sham programs the ECB has devised to buy limited amounts of paper haven’t completely overcome the downward pressure on the balance sheet exerted by the negative deposit rate.

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Initial Unemployment Claims Stay At Bubble Record Levels http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/initial-unemployment-claims-stay-at-bubble-record-levels/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/initial-unemployment-claims-stay-at-bubble-record-levels/#comments Thu, 20 Nov 2014 17:18:30 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=217402 The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted number for initial unemployment claims came in at 291,000, which was not materially more than the Wall Street conomist crowd consensus guess of 285,000. That was a non event.

The actual, not seasonally finagled numbers, which the Wall Street captured media ignores, shows claims continuing at all time record levels on the basis of claims per million workers. The condition has now persisted for 14 months. I have warned for months that this implied that the central bank financial engineering/credit bubble has been at a dangerous juncture. The media echo chamber continues to present record lows as positive, stubbornly ignoring the historical fact that extremes like this have always led to severe market and economic contractions. The Wall Street Journal headline today blared, “Jobless Claims Fall in Latest Sign of Improving Labor Market.”

According to the Department of Labor the actual, unmanipulated numbers were as follows. “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 285,263 in the week ending November 15, a decrease of 24,075 (or -7.8 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 22,827 (or -7.4 percent) from the previous week. There were 327,053 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013. ”

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change- Click to enlarge

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change- Click to enlarge

The actual week to week change last week was a decrease of around 24,000 which is a slightly less than average decline for that week of November. The average of the prior 10 years for that week was a drop of approximately 32,000. This is not a significant difference.

Actual first time claims were 12.8% lower than the same week a year ago. The normal range of the annual rate of change the past 3.5 years has mostly fluctuated between approximately -5% and -15%. During October the year to year change percentages were at extremes seen only a handful of times since the bungee rebound of 2010. This week’s number is only slightly less strong. There are no signs of material weakening yet.

New claims were 2,026 per million workers (in November nonfarm payrolls). This number is significantly lower than the ratio in the comparable November week at the top of the housing bubble in 2005 and 2006.

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

These numbers persisted at extreme levels at the tops of the last two bubbles for a year before the collapses got rolling. The foundations were already beginning to crumble by the time the first anniversary of record readings rolled around. The current condition has persisted for 14 months. Is this the new normal or is the bungee cord stretched further than ever before?

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

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Program Schedule http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/program-schedule/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/program-schedule/#comments Thu, 20 Nov 2014 15:12:08 +0000 http://radiofreewallstreet.fm/?p=20140 Read more →

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Radio Free Wall Street. To view original, click here.

The next Radio Free Wall Street video will be posted Friday. Time is uncertain.

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The Fed’s Stupid Balance Sheet Tricks Won’t Work and Might Backfire http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/the-feds-stupid-balance-sheet-tricks-wont-work-and-might-backfire/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/11/the-feds-stupid-balance-sheet-tricks-wont-work-and-might-backfire/#comments Tue, 11 Nov 2014 03:09:09 +0000 http://radiofreewallstreet.fm/?p=18086 Read more →

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Radio Free Wall Street. To view original, click here.

Forget raising rates in 2015. Lee Adler pulls back the paper curtain of Wall Street propaganda to show why the Fed may not realistically be able to raise interest rates for the foreseeable future.

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Today’s RFWS was absolutely outstanding. (I’m glad I actually watched this one rather than just listening while running.) When it comes to financial journalism, Lee, you remain an island of sanity in a huge sea of crap. Thanks.

Bob

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