Wall Street Examiner Exclusives – The Wall Street Examiner http://wallstreetexaminer.com Get the facts. Sat, 13 Feb 2016 17:26:08 +0000 en-US hourly 1 There Is No Such Thing As An “Official” Standard For A Bear Market http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/theres-no-such-thing-as-an-official-standard-for-a-bear-market/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/theres-no-such-thing-as-an-official-standard-for-a-bear-market/#respond Thu, 11 Feb 2016 22:51:46 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=284411 There's no such thing as an official standard. It's a Wall Street con, and you are the mark.

The post There Is No Such Thing As An “Official” Standard For A Bear Market was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is an extended commentary from tonight’s Pro Trader Market Update. Daily Market Update Pro subscribers (Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

The SPX made new closing and intraday lows today, reconfirming that this is indeed a bear market. The media claim that a 20% decline is an “official” bear market is pure Wall Street BS. There is no “official” percentage standard for what constitutes a bear market. It’s a big lie. What “official” body sets the standard? And in a world where different markets have widely different betas and standards of volatility, by what stretch of the imagination would a universal standard apply to all markets, all instruments, and all commodities. It’s absurd on its face, yet the media keeps repeating this nonsense ad nauseam. They’re idiots. They’re clowns, and lazy stooges for the Wall Street establishment. And it’s at your expense.

Goebbels said to make the lie really big and repeat it often, and soon enough everyone will accept it as truth. That’s what the 20% rule for a bear market epitomizes. A coterie of financial media PR flacks kept repeating it, and eventually everyone accepted it as truth.

But bear markets are matters of price patterns and time, not percentages. A hundred or more years ago, Dow, Hamilton, and Rhea never once mentioned any percentage when defining a bear market. Instead they made it a matter of the Dow Industrials and Rails making a secondary low lower than the last low after lower highs, and that each Average must confirm the other. They were never intended as timing tools, but the standard they set is far more reasonable in identifying a bear market than a straight percentage. They incorporate price direction, pattern, and time, not percentages. By the standards of direction, pattern, and time, the US market has been in a bear market since July of last year. That’s when both the Industrials and Transports had made new secondary lows. The S&P 500 confirmed resoundingly in August.

Since the early 1980s when I first started using computerized indicators to track price momentum and cycles, we have the benefit of knowing that momentum precedes the trend. Momentum slows first, then prices break down later. Very long term momentum and cycle indicators began to roll over in mid 2014. Late that summer is when I was first able to warn that the market was building a major top.

We also have the benefit of knowing from more than a century of price charts of modern markets that tops take from about 10 to 18 months to unfold before prices break down. Accordingly I wrote in the latter part of 2014 that a final price high would probably come in mid 2015, and that the market would head into a bear market after that.

This is not rocket science. We know that history rhymes. There are differences from one era to the next, but there are sufficient similarities that if we are paying attention, we can recognize the process as it is happening. The formation of bear markets are part of a process of the shift in long term momentum leading to a downtrend in prices. With lower highs and lower lows since last summer, we are now in a major downtrend. Call it whatever you want. If you want to wait until it’s down 20% to call it a bear market, that’s fine with me. But if you haven’t sold by now just because you are waiting for it to be down 20%, that’s just stupid.

What possible purpose does it serve for Wall Street to pretend that there’s an “official” standard for a bear market, and that it’s 20% down? That one is easy to answer. They want to keep YOU and everybody else from selling so that they can distribute their inventories into an orderly market, without having to take too much of a market. They want to keep YOU and all their other customers, especially institutions, IN the market buying on the way down so that they can short stock to you. Once they have built large enough short positions, they pull the plug by pulling their bids, letting prices fall while they pile up profits on their short inventories.
Then when the S&P 500 or the Dow is finally down 20% and their media stooges declare an “official” bear market, you can bet your last dollar that, as the public panics, a capitulation low will be set within a few days and a decent sized intermediate term bear market rally will unfold from there. It will be just another bear market rally that fools the majority into going back to sleep as their portfolios depreciate.

Meanwhile back at the cycle projection department, the 4 week cycle projection is now 1700-1750 due in a week or two. The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle projections are 1720 and 1750 respectively. Those projections are still in flux. A 6 month cycle low is ideally due by the end of March.

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US: $44.482B reverse repo-1day 2016-02-11 NYFed temporary open market operations http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/us-44-482b-reverse-repo-1day-2016-02-11-nyfed-temporary-open-market-operations/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/us-44-482b-reverse-repo-1day-2016-02-11-nyfed-temporary-open-market-operations/#respond Thu, 11 Feb 2016 05:00:00 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?guid=3ab4927ba72e8f229783e729b3679d5c What's the matter? Nobody wants to lend cash to the Fed?

The post US: $44.482B reverse repo-1day 2016-02-11 NYFed temporary open market operations was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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What’s the matter? Nobody wants to lend cash to the Fed? This is another extremely low number.

This is more evidence of the ongoing liquidity collapse. The markets are starved for cash as confidence the the central banks’ (not just the Fed–all of them) con games collapses and money is destroyed.

Follow all the action and plan your trades with the Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader Liquidity reports.

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US Bank Loans and Deposits Keep Growing as European Banking System Goes Haywire http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/us-bank-loans-and-deposits-keep-growing-as-european-banking-system-goes-haywire/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/us-bank-loans-and-deposits-keep-growing-as-european-banking-system-goes-haywire/#respond Wed, 10 Feb 2016 23:53:54 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=284228 US bank deposits and loans continue to grow rapidly. The same cannot be said for Europe, where we now have the monthly banking system data for December (Fed reports US data weekly). As you know if you are even minimally familiar with the headlines on Germany’s giant douchebank Deutsche Bank, negative interest rates joined at the hip with QE in Europe have been a disaster. They have promoted loan shrinkage and deposit growth, exactly the opposite of what was intended.

The post US Bank Loans and Deposits Keep Growing as European Banking System Goes Haywire was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is an excerpt from the Macroliquidity Pro Trader report. Macroliquidity Pro Trader weekly subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

US bank deposits and loans continue to grow rapidly. The same cannot be said for Europe, where we now have the monthly banking system data for December (Fed reports US data weekly). As you know if you are even minimally familiar with the headlines on Germany’s giant douchebank Deutsche Bank, negative interest rates joined at the hip with QE in Europe have been a disaster. They have promoted loan shrinkage and deposit growth, exactly the opposite of what was intended. Depositors are hoarding cash, not spending it, not lending it.

The fact is that central bankers simply have no clue how humans behave when faced with negative interest rates. Seeing that their previous program of negative rates wasn’t working, what did the ECB do? They did what any insane person would do. They made the rates even more negative.

Meanwhile, the Fed pretends that it controls the Fed Funds rate. It’s a joke. There is no Fed Funds market. The total amount of interbank Fed Funds outstanding in the US’s $12 trillion commercial banking system is $54 billion. No large banks in the US need to borrow Fed Funds. Only distressed banks would need to. It’s a meaningless, fake rate. The fixation on what the Fed will do with it next is another sign of collective media and institutional insanity as the financial and opinion elites impose their madness on the rest of society.

Needless to say, as confidence in the con game which these elites have been running collapses, and their incompetence and craziness becomes ever more clear to more people, it will not be good news for the financial markets. Sadly, the effects of all the crazy financial experiments and manipulation are only beginning.

This report fills in some of the details in painting a picture of these processes as they unfold.

Macroliquidity Pro Trader weekly subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

The monthly report for MacroLiquidity Investor Monthly subscribers is published around the the turn of the month. Click here for the most recent monthly updates of this report.

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Fed Shit Its Pants With This Typo- “US: $39132B reverse repo-1day 2016-02-08 NYFed temporary open market operations http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/fed-shits-pants-typo-us-39132b-reverse-repo-1day-2016-02-08-nyfed-temporary-open-market-operations/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/fed-shits-pants-typo-us-39132b-reverse-repo-1day-2016-02-08-nyfed-temporary-open-market-operations/#respond Mon, 08 Feb 2016 05:00:00 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?guid=52673bedf0437ae3c1edab10aacb26f3 They meant $39.132 billion. That's an extraordinarily low number.

The post Fed Shit Its Pants With This Typo- “US: $39132B reverse repo-1day 2016-02-08 NYFed temporary open market operations was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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That was the headline in the NY Fed RSS feed for Temporary Open Market Operations.

They meant $39.132 billion. That’s an extraordinarily low number. Here’s the daily history over the last 5 weeks.

Wasn’t so long ago that the daily totals were well over $100-150 billion per day. Today, nobody has any cash to lend to the Fed at any price. Liquidity has collapsed.

By the way, the Fed did correct the typo about an hour later. It was a lot more fun without that decimal point.

 

The post Fed Shit Its Pants With This Typo- “US: $39132B reverse repo-1day 2016-02-08 NYFed temporary open market operations was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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Lee Adler Calls It The Top of Tops http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/lee-adler-calls-it-the-top-of-tops/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/lee-adler-calls-it-the-top-of-tops/#respond Wed, 27 Jan 2016 09:09:00 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=282179 CNBC Africa’s Lindsay Williams interviewed me on his nightly drive time radio show last night. I told him the market would go much lower. Listen now. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/lindsay12616.mp3    

The post Lee Adler Calls It The Top of Tops was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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CNBC Africa’s Lindsay Williams interviewed me on his nightly drive time radio show last night. I told him the market would go much lower. Listen now.

 

 

The post Lee Adler Calls It The Top of Tops was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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Lee Adler Visits With Max Keiser in London, Now Including Part 2 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/280198/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/280198/#respond Thu, 14 Jan 2016 09:39:15 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=280198 First is Part 1. Part 2 is posted below. Thanks to Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert! Part 2

The post Lee Adler Visits With Max Keiser in London, Now Including Part 2 was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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First is Part 1. Part 2 is posted below. Thanks to Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert!

Part 2

The post Lee Adler Visits With Max Keiser in London, Now Including Part 2 was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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Part 2 of Lee Adler’s Conversation with Max Keiser http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/part-2-of-lee-adlers-conversation-with-max-keiser/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/part-2-of-lee-adlers-conversation-with-max-keiser/#respond Thu, 14 Jan 2016 09:31:24 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=280484 Max talks to me at 12:52. Max and Stacy in the first half.

The post Part 2 of Lee Adler’s Conversation with Max Keiser was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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Max talks to me at 12:52. Max and Stacy in the first half.

The post Part 2 of Lee Adler’s Conversation with Max Keiser was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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Fed Balance Sheet Flat But Bank Credit Soars http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/fed-balance-sheet-flat-bank-credit-soars/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/fed-balance-sheet-flat-bank-credit-soars/#respond Wed, 13 Jan 2016 12:05:12 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=280334 The banks who are borrowing in the Fed Funds market are the distressed exception.

The post Fed Balance Sheet Flat But Bank Credit Soars was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is an excerpt from the Pro Trader Macroliquidity report on the Fed’s weekly balance sheet and key weekly banking indicators. Macroliquidity Pro Trader weekly subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

The Fed’s balance sheet remains flat. It was virtually unchanged on the week last week, notwithstanding all the meaningless shifting of money from one line item to another.

Interbank Fed Funds lending continues to be virtually non-existent, down 90% from 2008 peak levels as the Fed continues to promote the myth that it has raised rates. Most banks are still so loaded with cash that they have zero need to enter the overnight funding markets.

The banks who are borrowing are the distressed exception. With all the excess cash in the system, those banks who need to borrow in the Fed Funds market are like households who borrow from payday lenders. They borrow because they have no other choice. This is hardly indicative of the market as a whole, where there is no bank borrowing.

In spite of the Fed’s balance sheet being flat, bank loans are soaring. This excludes loans to finance securities, which have been flat. Isn’t it strange that credit to business and individuals is soaring and GDP growth is slowing? Based on the latest official release, GDP growth is down to around 2% from 3% in 2014, and the real time tax data that we track suggests that real growth is now less than 1%.

According to economists, credit growth and economic growth go hand in hand. According to reality it doesn’t, and in fact, too much credit apparently is associated with slow or no growth. As we know from our experience of a decade ago, extremely rapid credit growth leads to extremely rapid, and devastating, correction.

Unfortunately, bankers are always the last to learn that lesson and since there’s been no moral rectification of the last credit bubble, we’re having another one in rapid succession. As a result moral hazard is at pillar of salt proportions.

This one is now on the doorstep of correction. Given that it has metastasized to a much greater degree than the last one, the end result is likely to be far more damaging, especially since the world’s central banks have used up their monetary trickery, and their credibility, in bringing us to this point. Even if they tried to stop a collapse by printing more money, it’s doubtful that enough players have enough faith in them to buy into the con one more time.

Macroliquidity Pro Trader weekly subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

The monthly report for MacroLiquidity Investor Monthly subscribers is published around the the turn of the month. Click here for the most recent monthly updates of this report.

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On CNBC, The Numbers May Be Different, But the Tune Never Changes http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/cnbc-numbers-may-different-tune-never-changes/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/cnbc-numbers-may-different-tune-never-changes/#respond Fri, 08 Jan 2016 23:07:06 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=279769 This is an excerpt from the Pro Trader Weekly Federal Revenues Report. Federal Revenues Pro Trader subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format. One of the benefits of being aboard ship in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is that I don’t stay online watching the market all day. The…

The post On CNBC, The Numbers May Be Different, But the Tune Never Changes was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is an excerpt from the Pro Trader Weekly Federal Revenues Report. Federal Revenues Pro Trader subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

One of the benefits of being aboard ship in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is that I don’t stay online watching the market all day. The satellite charges aboard ship are insane. So I’ve been reduced to watching CNBC for market updates. While it is painful, I even turn on the sound occasionally to listen to the words emanating from the flapping jaws on the screen.

It’s the first I’ve watched any extended CNBC chunks blowing by since 2003, when I swore off watching long form infomercials. It’s fun to watch with the sound off. You notice the mannerisms of the talking heads as they feign authoritativeness, or let you know that they are about to tell you something really, really important. A I do not recognize many of the faces I see on the screen now, but the message is exactly the same as I remember from 2000-2002. “Don’t panic! One thing you should not do is sell. There are opportunities! There are good values! Look for the opportunities. Be selective!”

When they do have a bearish guest, it’s usually only for purposes of ridicule. They dare not do that with David Stockman because they know that they do not have the intellectual firepower to match wits or facts with him, but the old regulars were always fair game. I wonder if it’s still the same 3 guys, David Tice, Peter Schiff, and Bill Fleckenstein. Whenever they were on, it seemed to always be at an intermediate term bottom. CNBC’s producers are great contrarian market timers. Invite a big bear for an interview? Bottom!

For Big Media in general, apparently there’s no such thing as a bear market, or at least until CNBC declares an “official bear market” when the broad market averages are already down 20% and your stocks are down 40%. Then the message will be, “It’s too late to sell.” Only when the market is down 35-40%, the talking heads will start getting nervous and the titles will read, “Is it time to sell?” That’s when it’s time to start looking for “opportunities” to cover your shorts.

The actual numbers may differ, but the tune never changes.

And by the way, just who or what is the official organization that declared that only when a market is down 20% is it a bear market. The International Board of Stock Markets – IBSM?

Say that fast three times.

And who first came up with the idea that you should never panic at the beginning of a bear market? Seems to me that that would be the best time to “panic.” Actually the ones who are panicking are the deer frozen in the headlight talking heads. Calm, thoughtful and decisive people are not panicking. They’ve been selling for the past 18 months. And they sure haven’t been listening to CNBC for advice. But it’s entertaining, if you enjoy throwing stuff at your TV.

You can now subscribe to the Federal Revenues Report on a standalone monthly or weekly basis.

Federal Revenues Pro Trader subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

Enter your email address in the form to receive email notification when Professional Edition reports are posted.

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The post On CNBC, The Numbers May Be Different, But the Tune Never Changes was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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When It Comes To Jobs Data, Follow The Taxes http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/when-it-comes-to-jobs-data-follow-the-taxes/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/when-it-comes-to-jobs-data-follow-the-taxes/#respond Fri, 08 Jan 2016 17:14:41 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=279767 The Federal Government reports daily withholding tax collections in real time with a one day delay. I track and report that data weekly and other real time tax data monthly in the Pro Trader Federal Revenues Report and the Investor Monthly Federal Revenues report. These reports give you a leg up in knowing what to…

The post When It Comes To Jobs Data, Follow The Taxes was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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The Federal Government reports daily withholding tax collections in real time with a one day delay. I track and report that data weekly and other real time tax data monthly in the Pro Trader Federal Revenues Report and the Investor Monthly Federal Revenues report. These reports give you a leg up in knowing what to expect when the government releases its official economic data reports a month or two after the fact. For example, here’s what I wrote in last week’s report about the jobs data that was due to come out the next week (today):

This data [withholding taxes] for the nonfarm payrolls survey reference period in December now appears to be slightly stronger than the November data, based on the recent slight uptick [in tax collections]. The current consensus guess on the headline number is a month to month seasonally adjusted increase of 200,000 jobs, which is slightly below November’s reported headline gain of 211,000. This now looks a little light. We never know how close to reality the initial headline seasonally adjusted fictional number will be but the as long as the seasonal adjustment is not too far out of whack, the number should come in just above expectations. That would probably be bearish as traders would take that as affirmation of the likelihood that the Fed will schedule another rate “hike.”

Even though I’m out here in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean on the Queen Mary 2 on the way to Europe, I will be posting the latest report on Federal revenue collections including the data for the full month of December for you this weekend. I track and report the real time data that matters to you as a trader, even in the middle of nowhere. Take advantage now. Check out any of these services risk free for 90 days!

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The post When It Comes To Jobs Data, Follow The Taxes was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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