The Wall Street Examiner » Wall Street Examiner Exclusives http://wallstreetexaminer.com Get the facts. Mon, 20 Oct 2014 17:24:21 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Initial Unemployment Claims Warnings Just Keep On Coming http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/10/initial-unemployment-claims-warnings-just-keep-on-coming/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/10/initial-unemployment-claims-warnings-just-keep-on-coming/#comments Thu, 16 Oct 2014 15:55:10 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=213925 The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted number for initial unemployment claims came in at 264,000, thus shocking the Wall Street conomist crowd, whose consensus guess was for 290,000. Bloomberg reported that not a single conomist in their survey had guessed that the number would be that low. Even the phony numbers continue to run red hot. That has been a persistent danger sign for more than a year now, a danger sign that everyone has either misinterpreted or ignored.

The actual, not seasonally finagled numbers, which the Wall Street captured media ignores, shows claims continuing at all time record levels on the basis of claims per million workers since September 2013, when the number first fell to a record low. The condition has now persisted for 13 months. I have construed this as suggesting that the central bank financial engineering/credit bubble has been at a dangerous juncture, and have warned as such for months. The media echo chamber continues to present record lows as positive, stubbornly ignoring the historical fact that extremes like this have always led to severe market and economic contractions.

Here are the actual unmanipulated numbers and the data showing why those numbers are so troubling.

According to the Department of Labor, “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 271,590 in the week ending October 11, an increase of 14,031 (or 5.4 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 37,615 (or 14.6 percent) from the previous week. There were 360,957 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.”

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change- Click to enlarge

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change- Click to enlarge

Actual initial unemployment claims were a stunning 24.8% lower than the same week a year ago. That’s the second straight week the difference was at an extreme. The normal range of the annual rate of change the past 3.5 years has mostly fluctuated between approximately -5% and -15%. The current number is at an extreme seen only a handful of times since the bungee rebound of 2010. There are no signs of weakening yet. There were no external factors that would have caused this.

The actual week to week change last week was an increase of around 14,000, which is much better than normal for the first week of October. The average of the prior 10 years for that week was an increase of approximately 40,000.

New claims were 1,943 per million workers counted in September nonfarm payrolls. This number remained lower than the ratio at the top of both the housing bubble in 2006 and the internet bubble in 1999.

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

These numbers persisted at extreme levels at the tops of the last two bubbles for a year before the collapses got rolling. The foundations were already beginning to crumble by the time the first anniversary of record readings rolled around. Today’s situation is similar to those. Stocks have dipped over the past 3 weeks and some long term technical indicators have begun to flash major trend sell signals indicating that a bear market is either about to begin or has already begun.

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

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Real Reason For Stock Selloff Is Not Retail Sales http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/10/real-reason-for-stock-selloff-is-not-retail-sales/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/10/real-reason-for-stock-selloff-is-not-retail-sales/#comments Wed, 15 Oct 2014 16:16:00 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=213759 The market sold off today ostensibly because of the lousy retail sales headline number, or at least so the media said. The headline seasonally adjusted number for retail sales was down 0.3%. While the consensus expectation was for a 0.2% decline, the bigger disappointment appeared to lie in retail sales ex auto, which came in at -0.2% versus a consensus expectation of +0.3%. Even with the miss, the market’s big selloff seems way out of proportion with that. Something else is going on– the end of the US oil and gas boom.

As for retail sales, the headline number is flat out wrong. It’s reported on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, and the SA factor has led to a misleading result this month. Looking at the not seasonally adjusted actual data, it’s clear that September was no worse than trend, and in fact on a year to year basis sales are accelerating. The year to year rate of increase is now at its highest point since July 2013. If traders think that this selloff is about retail sales, they are being misled in more ways than one.

Retail Sales Not Seasonally Adjusted- Click to enlarge

Retail Sales Not Seasonally Adjusted- Click to enlarge

I think its an issue of the collapsing price of energy and the wave of liquidation that is causing. It’s a simple matter of supply and demand. The energy boom, fed by cheap and abundant credit, has created so much excess supply and excess capacity in the face of weak worldwide demand that it has sown the seeds of its own destruction.

 

US Oil and Gas Production - Click to enlarge

US Oil and Gas Production – Click to enlarge

US Oil and Gas Production Capacity- Click to enlarge

US Oil and Gas Production Capacity- Click to enlarge

Energy development has been the engine of growth in the US economy that pushed its growth rate past that of its peers. The collapse of energy prices creates a ripple effect that spreads throughout world markets as large leveraged speculators are forced to liquidate any assets they can. That’s more likely the proximate cause of this selloff than any misconceptions about retail sales.

With energy development the lead sled dog of whatever real economic growth there’s been in the past 5 years, the pressure of the energy price collapse could spell the destruction of the interlocked world financial and economic systems. By the standard of making lower intermediate term highs and lower intermediate term lows, Japan and European markets have already been in bear markets for weeks. Buttressed by the fact of it being the Last Ponzi Game Standing the US has held out a little longer, but that won’t last.  The US will follow the rest of the world down.

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Is The Sharp Decline in The Stock Market Tied To Federal Withholding Tax Collections http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/10/is-the-sharp-decline-in-the-stock-market-tied-to-federal-withholding-tax-collections/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/10/is-the-sharp-decline-in-the-stock-market-tied-to-federal-withholding-tax-collections/#comments Mon, 13 Oct 2014 23:42:56 +0000 http://radiofreewallstreet.fm/?p=16107 Read more →

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Radio Free Wall Street. To view original, click here.

Lee Adler pulls back the paper curtain of Wall Street propaganda on a big change in the pattern of real time Federal Withholding Tax Collections and tells what that has to do with plunging US stock prices.

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Today’s RFWS was absolutely outstanding. (I’m glad I actually watched this one rather than just listening while running.) When it comes to financial journalism, Lee, you remain an island of sanity in a huge sea of crap. Thanks.

Bob

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Jobless Claims Drop 23% Year to Year, Continue Dangerous Extremes http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/10/jobless-claims-drop-23-year-to-year-continue-dangerous-extremes/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/10/jobless-claims-drop-23-year-to-year-continue-dangerous-extremes/#comments Thu, 09 Oct 2014 17:13:31 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=213036 The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted number for initial unemployment claims came in at 287,000, slightly lower than the consensus guesstimate of  Wall Street economists of 295,000.

The actual, not seasonally finagled numbers, which the Wall Street captured media ignores, shows claims continuing at all time record levels on the basis of claims per million workers, a condition which has persisted since September 2013 when the number of claims first fell to a record low.  The data suggests that the central bank financial engineering/credit bubble has been at a dangerous juncture. The media echo chamber continues to present record lows as positive, rather than the danger sign that it is.

Here are the actual unmanipulated numbers and the data showing why those numbers are so troubling.

According to the Department of Labor, “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 257,736 in the week ending October 4, an increase of 30,056 (or 13.2 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 30,838 (or 13.5 percent) from the previous week. There were 335,937 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.”

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change- Click to enlarge

Actual initial unemployment claims were 23.3% lower than the same week a year ago. The normal range of the annual rate of change the past 3.5 years has mostly fluctuated between approximately -5% and -15%. The current number is at an extreme seen only a handful of times since the bungee rebound of 2010. There are no signs of weakening yet.

The actual week to week change last week was an increase of around 30,000, which is normal for the first week of October. The average of the prior 10 years for that week was an increase of approximately 28,000.

New claims were 1,844 per million workers counted in September nonfarm payrolls. This number is lower than the ratio at the top of both the housing bubble in 2006 and the internet bubble in 1999.

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

These numbers persisted at extreme levels at the tops of the last two bubbles for a year before the collapses got rolling. The foundations were already beginning to crumble by the time the first anniversary of record readings rolled around. Today’s situation is similar to those. Stocks have dipped this week and are on the cusp of major trend sell signals.

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

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Initial Unemployment Claims Per Millions Workers Reach All Time Record Low http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/10/initial-unemployment-claims-per-millions-workers-reach-all-time-record-low/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/10/initial-unemployment-claims-per-millions-workers-reach-all-time-record-low/#comments Thu, 02 Oct 2014 14:35:38 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=212209 Initial unemployment claims virtually always hit their low for the year in the first week of September, but the September 27 week cracked that low to reach an all time record low in claims per million workers. This is an unsettling fact illustrating just how distorted and overheated the US jobs market is in some sectors. Companies can’t find the workers with the qualifications they need, so they’re not laying off. In the past, such conditions have been the precursor to bear markets in stocks along with economic contractions.

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted number for initial unemployment claims came in at 287,000. The consensus guesstimate of  Wall Street economists had been 297,000. There was little reaction in the markets, which may have been more focused on Super Mario Draghi’s ECB press conference.

The actual, not seasonally finagled numbers, which the Wall Street captured media ignores, shows claims at all time record levels on the basis of claims per million workers. The unadjusted total was the lowest since September 2000, and significantly lower than at the top of the housing bubble in 2006. This continues 12 months of near record readings or record readings. Since September 2013 when the number of claims first fell to a record low, the data has suggested that the central bank financial engineering/credit bubble has been at a dangerous juncture.But thanks to their slavish and idiotic focus on only the made up seasonally adjusted (SA) numbers, news media press release repeaters have given little indication that by historical standards the numbers have represented a danger sign. The media echo chamber continues to present record lows as positive, rather than the danger sign that it is.

Here are the actual unmanipulated numbers and the data showing why those numbers are so troubling.

According to the Department of Labor, “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 227,110 in the week ending September 27, a decrease of 12,920 (or -5.4 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a
decrease of 7,077 (or -2.9 percent) from the previous week. There were 252,196 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013. ”

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change- Click to enlarge

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change- Click to enlarge

Actual initial unemployment claims were 10% lower than the same week a year ago. The normal range of the annual rate of change the past 3.5 years has mostly fluctuated between approximately -5% and -15%. The current number is smack in the middle of the range. There are no signs of weakening yet.

The actual week to week change last week was unremarkable, at a decrease of -12,920. There’s no seasonal pattern in the fourth week of September. It’s a swing week in which claims sometimes increase and sometimes fall. The average of the prior 10 years for that week was a decrease of -8,945.

New claims were 1,634 per million workers counted in August nonfarm payrolls. September payrolls should show an increase in workers, so the number of claims per million workers will be even lower than this. This number compares with 1,780 per million in this week of 2007, which was when the housing bubble was starting to deflate, and 1,830 per million in the comparable week of 2006, around the top of the housing bubble.This week’s number broke the record low set in the first week of September 2013. In each ensuing week over the past year the numbers remained at or near record levels for the comparable week.

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

These numbers persisted at extreme levels at the tops of the last two bubbles for a year before the collapses got rolling. The foundations were already beginning to crumble by the time the first anniversary of record readings rolled around. Today’s situation is similar to those. Stocks have dipped this week and are on the cusp of major trend sell signals. We seem to be on a hair trigger here. Meanwhile, the continuation of this trend will continue to encourage the Fed to continue to pull the punchbowl. It is that action that will trigger the collapse of the house of cards built with Fed paper. And contrary to what Mario Draghi wants us to believe, I don’t think that the ECB will step in and save the world.

Initial Claims Inverted and Stock Prices - Click to enlarge

Initial Claims Inverted and Stock Prices – Click to enlarge

 

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US Treasury Is Draining Reserves In Lieu of Fed http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/09/us-treasury-is-draining-reserves-in-lieu-of-fed/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/09/us-treasury-is-draining-reserves-in-lieu-of-fed/#comments Tue, 30 Sep 2014 20:45:02 +0000 http://radiofreewallstreet.fm/?p=12268 Read more →

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Radio Free Wall Street. To view original, click here.

Lee Adler pulls back the paper curtain of Wall Street propaganda on the recent increase in the US Treasury’s cash balance. That’s not an accident, and it has real implications for the US economy and the markets.

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Today’s RFWS was absolutely outstanding. (I’m glad I actually watched this one rather than just listening while running.) When it comes to financial journalism, Lee, you remain an island of sanity in a huge sea of crap. Thanks.

Bob

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Initial Claims Celebrate a Year At Record Levels http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/09/initial-claims-celebrate-a-year-at-record-levels/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/09/initial-claims-celebrate-a-year-at-record-levels/#comments Thu, 25 Sep 2014 19:47:22 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=211390 The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted number for initial unemployment claims of 293,000 surprised Wall Street economists a bit this morning as their consensus guess had been 300,000.

The actual, not seasonally finagled numbers, which the Wall Street captured media ignores, shows claims at all time record levels, slightly below the levels reached at the top of the housing/credit bubble in 2006. This continues 12 months of near record readings or record readings. Since September 2013 when the number of claims first fell to a record low, the data has suggested that the central bank financial engineering/credit bubble has been at a dangerous juncture.But thanks to their slavish and idiotic focus on only the made up seasonally adjusted (SA) numbers, news media press release repeaters have given little indication that by historical standards the numbers have represented a danger sign. The media echo chamber continues to present record lows as positive, rather than the danger sign that it is.

Here are the actual unmanipulated numbers and the data showing why those numbers are so troubling.

According to the Department of Labor, “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 238,539 in the week ending September 20, a decrease of 3,533 (or -1.5 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a
decrease of 13,214 (or -5.5 percent) from the previous week. There were 255,087 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.”

Actual initial unemployment claims were 6.5% lower than the same week a year ago. The normal range of the annual rate of change the past 3.5 years has mostly fluctuated between approximately -5% and -15%. The current number is on the weaker side of trend norms but there are no real signs of weakening yet.

The actual week to week change last week was unremarkable, at a decrease of 3,533. There’s no seasonal pattern in the third week of September. It’s a swing week in which claims sometimes increase and sometimes fall. The average of the prior 10 years for that week was an increase of 7,485.

New claims were 1,716 per million workers counted in August nonfarm payrolls. This compares with 1,780 per million in this week of 2007, which was when the housing bubble was starting to deflate, and 1,919 per million in the comparable week of 2006, around the top of the bubble. In the first week of September 2013, this figure set a record low. In each ensuing week over the past year the numbers remained at or near record levels. This week they did so again.

These numbers persisted at extreme levels at the tops of the last two bubbles for a year before the collapses got rolling. The foundations were already beginning to crumble by the time the first anniversary of record readings rolled around. Today’s situation is similar to those, but there are few signs yet in other indicators that the economy or the market are on the verge of similar collapses. On the other hand, the continuation of this trend will continue to encourage the Fed to continue to pull the punchbowl. It is that action that triggers the collapse of the house of cards built with Fed paper.

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Why The Economy Isn’t Slowing and Why That’s Bearish http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/09/why-the-economy-isnt-slowing-and-why-thats-bearish/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/09/why-the-economy-isnt-slowing-and-why-thats-bearish/#comments Wed, 24 Sep 2014 02:46:01 +0000 http://radiofreewallstreet.fm/?p=10780 Read more →

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Radio Free Wall Street. To view original, click here.

Lee Adler pulls back the paper curtain of Wall Street propaganda on the housing data and broader, more timely economic data. Housing may be slowing, but the broader economy isn’t. He tells why that’s bearish is the big picture, but a close look at the technical data says it may be a while before the big one.

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Why should you subscribe? Here’s how one subscriber puts it.

Today’s RFWS was absolutely outstanding. (I’m glad I actually watched this one rather than just listening while running.) When it comes to financial journalism, Lee, you remain an island of sanity in a huge sea of crap. Thanks.

Bob

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Overheating Continues As Initial Unemployment Claims Set Another Record Low http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/09/overheating-continues-as-initial-unemployment-claims-set-another-record-low/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/09/overheating-continues-as-initial-unemployment-claims-set-another-record-low/#comments Thu, 18 Sep 2014 15:38:23 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=210549 The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted number for initial unemployment claims of 280,000 left the consensus estimate of Wall Street economists in the dust this morning at 305,000. They had adjusted their sights after last week’s stutter step that suggested slowing. But this week the actual numbers were back on trend.

The actual, not seasonally finagled numbers, which the Wall Street captured media ignores, shows claims at all time record levels, even slightly below the levels reached at the top of the housing/credit bubble in 2006. This makes 12 months of nearly continuous record readings. Since September 2013 when the number of claims first fell to a record low, the data has suggested that the central bank driven financial engineering/credit bubble has reached a dangerous juncture.

Stock Prices and Initial Claims- Click to enlarge

Stock Prices and Initial Claims- Click to enlarge

Thanks to their focus on the made up seasonally adjusted (SA) numbers, news media press release repeaters have given little indication that by historical standards the numbers have represented a danger sign. They have recognized the record levels but the media echo chamber continues to present that as positive, rather than the danger sign that it is.

Here are the actual unmanipulated numbers, along with the data showing why those numbers are so troubling.

According to the Department of Labor, “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 241,074 in the week ending September 13, an increase of 6,358 (or 2.7 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an
increase of 37,277 (or 15.9 percent) from the previous week. There were 272,946 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.”

Initial Claims- Click to enlarge

Initial Claims- Click to enlarge

Actual initial unemployment claims were 11.7% lower than the same week a year ago. The normal range of the annual rate of change the past 3.5 years has mostly fluctuated between approximately -5% and -15%. The current number is on the stronger side of trend norms after last week’s data bounced outside the trend, briefly showing a 2.2% year to year increase. Those spikes have happened on occasion and have been quickly reversed each time. There are no real signs of weakening yet.

The actual week to week change last week was an increase of 6,358. There’s no seasonal pattern in the second week of September. It’s a swing week in which claims sometimes increase and sometimes fall. The average of the prior 10 years for that week was an increase of 10,925. The important fact about this week’s data isn’t the degree of change from last week, but that it’s squarely within the norms of the trend of the past 4 years.

New claims were 1,734 per million workers counted in August nonfarm payrolls. This compares with 1,883 per million in this week of 2007, which was when the housing bubble was starting to deflate, and 1,960 per million in the comparable week of 2006, around the top of the bubble. In the first week of September 2013, this figure set a record low. In each ensuing week over the past year the numbers remained at or near record levels. This week they did so again.

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

These numbers persisted at extreme levels at the tops of the last two bubbles for a year before the collapses got rolling. The foundations were already beginning to crumble by the time the first anniversary of record readings rolled around. Today’s situation is similar to those, but there are few signs yet in other indicators that the economy or the market are on the verge of similar collapses. On the other hand, the continuation of this trend will continue to encourage the Fed to continue to pull the punchbowl. It is that action that triggers the collapse of the house of cards built with Fed paper.

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Hilsy Rally, The Industrial Revolution, and Why The Bullish Dollar Chart http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/09/hilsy-rally-the-industrial-revolution-and-why-the-bullish-dollar-chart/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/09/hilsy-rally-the-industrial-revolution-and-why-the-bullish-dollar-chart/#comments Tue, 16 Sep 2014 21:38:42 +0000 http://radiofreewallstreet.fm/?p=8854 Read more →

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This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Radio Free Wall Street. To view original, click here.

Lee Adler tells pulls back the paper curtain of Wall Street propaganda on the Hilsenrath rally, the real story on the dollar, industrial production, median household income, and the ECB conundrum, that’s right, conundrum, to give you a better handle on what’s really going on behind the headlines.

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Why should you subscribe? Here’s how one subscriber puts it.

Today’s RFWS was absolutely outstanding. (I’m glad I actually watched this one rather than just listening while running.) When it comes to financial journalism, Lee, you remain an island of sanity in a huge sea of crap. Thanks.

Bob

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