Wall Street Examiner Exclusives – The Wall Street Examiner http://wallstreetexaminer.com Get the facts. Tue, 09 Feb 2016 20:42:48 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Fed Shit Its Pants With This Typo- “US: $39132B reverse repo-1day 2016-02-08 NYFed temporary open market operations http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/fed-shits-pants-typo-us-39132b-reverse-repo-1day-2016-02-08-nyfed-temporary-open-market-operations/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/02/fed-shits-pants-typo-us-39132b-reverse-repo-1day-2016-02-08-nyfed-temporary-open-market-operations/#respond Mon, 08 Feb 2016 05:00:00 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?guid=52673bedf0437ae3c1edab10aacb26f3 They meant $39.132 billion. That's an extraordinarily low number.

The post Fed Shit Its Pants With This Typo- “US: $39132B reverse repo-1day 2016-02-08 NYFed temporary open market operations was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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That was the headline in the NY Fed RSS feed for Temporary Open Market Operations.

They meant $39.132 billion. That’s an extraordinarily low number. Here’s the daily history over the last 5 weeks.

Wasn’t so long ago that the daily totals were well over $100-150 billion per day. Today, nobody has any cash to lend to the Fed at any price. Liquidity has collapsed.

By the way, the Fed did correct the typo about an hour later. It was a lot more fun without that decimal point.

 

The post Fed Shit Its Pants With This Typo- “US: $39132B reverse repo-1day 2016-02-08 NYFed temporary open market operations was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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Lee Adler Calls It The Top of Tops http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/lee-adler-calls-it-the-top-of-tops/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/lee-adler-calls-it-the-top-of-tops/#respond Wed, 27 Jan 2016 09:09:00 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=282179 CNBC Africa’s Lindsay Williams interviewed me on his nightly drive time radio show last night. I told him the market would go much lower. Listen now. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/lindsay12616.mp3    

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CNBC Africa’s Lindsay Williams interviewed me on his nightly drive time radio show last night. I told him the market would go much lower. Listen now.

 

 

The post Lee Adler Calls It The Top of Tops was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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Lee Adler Visits With Max Keiser in London, Now Including Part 2 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/280198/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/280198/#respond Thu, 14 Jan 2016 09:39:15 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=280198 First is Part 1. Part 2 is posted below. Thanks to Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert! Part 2

The post Lee Adler Visits With Max Keiser in London, Now Including Part 2 was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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First is Part 1. Part 2 is posted below. Thanks to Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert!

Part 2

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Part 2 of Lee Adler’s Conversation with Max Keiser http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/part-2-of-lee-adlers-conversation-with-max-keiser/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/part-2-of-lee-adlers-conversation-with-max-keiser/#respond Thu, 14 Jan 2016 09:31:24 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=280484 Max talks to me at 12:52. Max and Stacy in the first half.

The post Part 2 of Lee Adler’s Conversation with Max Keiser was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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Max talks to me at 12:52. Max and Stacy in the first half.

The post Part 2 of Lee Adler’s Conversation with Max Keiser was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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Fed Balance Sheet Flat But Bank Credit Soars http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/fed-balance-sheet-flat-bank-credit-soars/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/fed-balance-sheet-flat-bank-credit-soars/#respond Wed, 13 Jan 2016 12:05:12 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=280334 The banks who are borrowing in the Fed Funds market are the distressed exception.

The post Fed Balance Sheet Flat But Bank Credit Soars was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is an excerpt from the Pro Trader Macroliquidity report on the Fed’s weekly balance sheet and key weekly banking indicators. Macroliquidity Pro Trader weekly subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

The Fed’s balance sheet remains flat. It was virtually unchanged on the week last week, notwithstanding all the meaningless shifting of money from one line item to another.

Interbank Fed Funds lending continues to be virtually non-existent, down 90% from 2008 peak levels as the Fed continues to promote the myth that it has raised rates. Most banks are still so loaded with cash that they have zero need to enter the overnight funding markets.

The banks who are borrowing are the distressed exception. With all the excess cash in the system, those banks who need to borrow in the Fed Funds market are like households who borrow from payday lenders. They borrow because they have no other choice. This is hardly indicative of the market as a whole, where there is no bank borrowing.

In spite of the Fed’s balance sheet being flat, bank loans are soaring. This excludes loans to finance securities, which have been flat. Isn’t it strange that credit to business and individuals is soaring and GDP growth is slowing? Based on the latest official release, GDP growth is down to around 2% from 3% in 2014, and the real time tax data that we track suggests that real growth is now less than 1%.

According to economists, credit growth and economic growth go hand in hand. According to reality it doesn’t, and in fact, too much credit apparently is associated with slow or no growth. As we know from our experience of a decade ago, extremely rapid credit growth leads to extremely rapid, and devastating, correction.

Unfortunately, bankers are always the last to learn that lesson and since there’s been no moral rectification of the last credit bubble, we’re having another one in rapid succession. As a result moral hazard is at pillar of salt proportions.

This one is now on the doorstep of correction. Given that it has metastasized to a much greater degree than the last one, the end result is likely to be far more damaging, especially since the world’s central banks have used up their monetary trickery, and their credibility, in bringing us to this point. Even if they tried to stop a collapse by printing more money, it’s doubtful that enough players have enough faith in them to buy into the con one more time.

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On CNBC, The Numbers May Be Different, But the Tune Never Changes http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/cnbc-numbers-may-different-tune-never-changes/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/cnbc-numbers-may-different-tune-never-changes/#respond Fri, 08 Jan 2016 23:07:06 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=279769 This is an excerpt from the Pro Trader Weekly Federal Revenues Report. Federal Revenues Pro Trader subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format. One of the benefits of being aboard ship in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is that I don’t stay online watching the market all day. The…

The post On CNBC, The Numbers May Be Different, But the Tune Never Changes was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is an excerpt from the Pro Trader Weekly Federal Revenues Report. Federal Revenues Pro Trader subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

One of the benefits of being aboard ship in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is that I don’t stay online watching the market all day. The satellite charges aboard ship are insane. So I’ve been reduced to watching CNBC for market updates. While it is painful, I even turn on the sound occasionally to listen to the words emanating from the flapping jaws on the screen.

It’s the first I’ve watched any extended CNBC chunks blowing by since 2003, when I swore off watching long form infomercials. It’s fun to watch with the sound off. You notice the mannerisms of the talking heads as they feign authoritativeness, or let you know that they are about to tell you something really, really important. A I do not recognize many of the faces I see on the screen now, but the message is exactly the same as I remember from 2000-2002. “Don’t panic! One thing you should not do is sell. There are opportunities! There are good values! Look for the opportunities. Be selective!”

When they do have a bearish guest, it’s usually only for purposes of ridicule. They dare not do that with David Stockman because they know that they do not have the intellectual firepower to match wits or facts with him, but the old regulars were always fair game. I wonder if it’s still the same 3 guys, David Tice, Peter Schiff, and Bill Fleckenstein. Whenever they were on, it seemed to always be at an intermediate term bottom. CNBC’s producers are great contrarian market timers. Invite a big bear for an interview? Bottom!

For Big Media in general, apparently there’s no such thing as a bear market, or at least until CNBC declares an “official bear market” when the broad market averages are already down 20% and your stocks are down 40%. Then the message will be, “It’s too late to sell.” Only when the market is down 35-40%, the talking heads will start getting nervous and the titles will read, “Is it time to sell?” That’s when it’s time to start looking for “opportunities” to cover your shorts.

The actual numbers may differ, but the tune never changes.

And by the way, just who or what is the official organization that declared that only when a market is down 20% is it a bear market. The International Board of Stock Markets – IBSM?

Say that fast three times.

And who first came up with the idea that you should never panic at the beginning of a bear market? Seems to me that that would be the best time to “panic.” Actually the ones who are panicking are the deer frozen in the headlight talking heads. Calm, thoughtful and decisive people are not panicking. They’ve been selling for the past 18 months. And they sure haven’t been listening to CNBC for advice. But it’s entertaining, if you enjoy throwing stuff at your TV.

You can now subscribe to the Federal Revenues Report on a standalone monthly or weekly basis.

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When It Comes To Jobs Data, Follow The Taxes http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/when-it-comes-to-jobs-data-follow-the-taxes/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/01/when-it-comes-to-jobs-data-follow-the-taxes/#respond Fri, 08 Jan 2016 17:14:41 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=279767 The Federal Government reports daily withholding tax collections in real time with a one day delay. I track and report that data weekly and other real time tax data monthly in the Pro Trader Federal Revenues Report and the Investor Monthly Federal Revenues report. These reports give you a leg up in knowing what to…

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The Federal Government reports daily withholding tax collections in real time with a one day delay. I track and report that data weekly and other real time tax data monthly in the Pro Trader Federal Revenues Report and the Investor Monthly Federal Revenues report. These reports give you a leg up in knowing what to expect when the government releases its official economic data reports a month or two after the fact. For example, here’s what I wrote in last week’s report about the jobs data that was due to come out the next week (today):

This data [withholding taxes] for the nonfarm payrolls survey reference period in December now appears to be slightly stronger than the November data, based on the recent slight uptick [in tax collections]. The current consensus guess on the headline number is a month to month seasonally adjusted increase of 200,000 jobs, which is slightly below November’s reported headline gain of 211,000. This now looks a little light. We never know how close to reality the initial headline seasonally adjusted fictional number will be but the as long as the seasonal adjustment is not too far out of whack, the number should come in just above expectations. That would probably be bearish as traders would take that as affirmation of the likelihood that the Fed will schedule another rate “hike.”

Even though I’m out here in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean on the Queen Mary 2 on the way to Europe, I will be posting the latest report on Federal revenue collections including the data for the full month of December for you this weekend. I track and report the real time data that matters to you as a trader, even in the middle of nowhere. Take advantage now. Check out any of these services risk free for 90 days!

Follow the money in real time!

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Speak No Evil Financial Media Says No Housing “Inflation”, Only “Growth and Gains” http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2015/12/media-housing-price-growth-inflation/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2015/12/media-housing-price-growth-inflation/#respond Wed, 30 Dec 2015 18:42:52 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=278375 Recent media reports indicate that house prices are rising so I was curious to see how often today’s news reports on the Case Shiller house price index mentioned “inflation.” I also wanted to see just how bad housing inflation is. Lo and behold, in reading the news reports I learned that there is no inflation…

The post Speak No Evil Financial Media Says No Housing “Inflation”, Only “Growth and Gains” was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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Recent media reports indicate that house prices are rising so I was curious to see how often today’s news reports on the Case Shiller house price index mentioned “inflation.” I also wanted to see just how bad housing inflation is. Lo and behold, in reading the news reports I learned that there is no inflation in housing!

A CNBC.com post on the Case Shiller used the word “gains” 4 times and “higher” 6 times, but did not mention “inflation.”

Business Insider used “higher” 2 times, and “gains” once. “Inflation?” Zero.

The Wall Street Journal’s piece started with “price growth,” using the “growth” euphemism 10 times, including in the headline. “Increase” showed up 6 times. A total of 16 descriptions of the price change mentioned either growth or increase. “Inflate” or “inflation” how many times? Zero.

Now, Rupert Murdoch owns both the Wall Street Journal and Realtor.com. We shouldn’t expect anything negative from the hired public relations and marketing arm of the NAR.

Bloomberg was more creative with its euphemisms. Its reporters used words like “advance, growth, prop up, gains, healthy, elevated, increased, and climbed.” The words “inflate” or “inflation?” Never.

So you see, house prices don’t suffer “inflation.” They gain, grow, jump, climb, advance, increase, appreciate, and rise. But they don’t “inflate.”

Meanwhile, house prices do continue to inflate. Only not at the rate that Case Shiller says. Case Shiller uses a 3 month average of sales that CLOSED in August, September, and October. That means its index represents a smoothed average price change on transactions that actually took place 30-60 days before that, or the end of July on average. It’s as if the Wall Street Journal today only reported the Dow as of its 90 day moving average price from late July. Who would care about that?

Isn’t it funny that Rupert Murdoch owns Realtor.com, which has all the data on current contracts as all the Realtors around the country input the current contracts into their MLS databases in real time? Why isn’t The Wall Street Journal reporting the real time sales price data? Is there any other instrument that they report only with a 5 month lag?

Redfin.com performs a public service by accumulating real time contract prices from MLS’s in 68 of the largest metros in the US. It doesn’t resort to the statistical trickery of moving average smoothing and lagging by 5 months. Nor does it resort to Case Shiller’s repeat sales only trick that tends to suppress the market-wide inflation rate. Redfin’s data on November sales contracts showed a 6.8% housing inflation rate in November. Even the Realtors showed a 6.3% inflation rate on November closed sales. Case Shiller’s number understated the actual current inflation rate by more than 19%.  Home Sales and Prices- Click to enlarge

Click here to view chart if reading in email

The real problem will come when prices start to decline. Case Shiller will be at least 5 months late in turning. Robert Shiller was more than a year late in recognizing that prices had bottomed in 2011-12 due to this methodology, which only a Yale economics professor and the Nobel Prize committee could imagine to be relevant. But then the mainstream media treats it as the holy grail, so maybe I’m the crazy one.

Meanwhile, suppressed inventories and modest demand will continue to stoke housing inflation until more people decide to put their houses on the market.

Home Sales and Inventory- Click to enlarge

Click here to view chart if reading in email

That might be when interest rates rise enough to entice retirees to sell their houses and put the resulting nest egg into an income producing cash asset. Who knows when that will be? But if and when that happens, any increase in supply would be joined by the demand constraint imposed by rising mortgage rates. The intersection of those two forces would cause prices to begin to decline.

Bob Shiller and the mainstream media will be a couple of years late in recognizing and reporting that, thanks to their slavish devotion to an absurdly flawed measure of the US housing market.

The post Speak No Evil Financial Media Says No Housing “Inflation”, Only “Growth and Gains” was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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The Fed’s Rate Hike Hoax- There Is No Short Term Money Market http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2015/12/there-is-no-short-term-money-market/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2015/12/there-is-no-short-term-money-market/#respond Wed, 23 Dec 2015 20:49:04 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=277563 The Fed has “raised interest rates” (wink-wink). Its primary tools in this make believe policy are interest on excess reserves (IOER) and the interest paid on reverse repos (RRP). The new Fed Funs target rate is now 25-50 bp. Fed Funs were reported to be trading at a weighted average rate of 36 bp on December 22.

The post The Fed’s Rate Hike Hoax- There Is No Short Term Money Market was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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This is an excerpt from the Pro Trader Macroliquidity report. Macroliquidity Pro Trader weekly subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

The Fed has “raised interest rates” (wink-wink). Its primary tools in this make believe policy are interest on excess reserves (IOER) and the interest paid on reverse repos (RRP). The new Fed Funs target rate is now 25-50 bp. Fed Funs were reported to be trading at a weighted average rate of 36 bp on December 22.

Of course, there is no actual Fed Funds market. Fed Funds are the money that banks who were short of reserves borrowed from banks which had excess reserves, so that they could meet the minimum reserve requirement. In 2008, the amount of Fed Funds outstanding rose as high as $450 billion. Over the past 7 years, as the Fed pumped $2.6 trillion of excess reserves into the system, virtually no banks have been short of reserves, so the amount of Fed Funds outstanding shrank to $50 billion.
There Is No Fed Funds Market - Click to enlarge

Today there are very few banks which need to borrow reserves to meet their requirement, and those that do are certainly not representative of the market as a whole. These would be banks in distress, or banks who are acting at the behest of the Fed to make it appear that a real market exists. But in reality, banks that need to borrow Fed Funds today are more like people who are so short of cash that they are forced to resort to payday lenders to pay their bills. The Fed Funds rate is therefore the equivalent of the payday lender loan shark rate for banks who are so short of cash, they can’t pay their bills.

In order to make it appear that the it actually has control over short term rates, the Fed has increased IOER by 25 basis points. This increases the subsidy the US taxpayers are paying the big banks from $6.5 billion per year to $13 billion per year. But hey. We don’t mind. It’s for a good cause. And it’s only $40 per American. We’re happy to help out.

Somehow, the Fed expects that by having us pay the banks more income the banks will raise the interest rates that they charge their customers and that this will gradually cause the money markets to tighten. Or to put it differently, that by lowering the banks’ cost of funds, that will somehow make them want to charge even more to lend money to their customers.

Think about it. You are a bank and your costs go down. What are you going to do to put more loans on the street and maintain or grow your market share? Raise the price to borrowers? I think not.

Another tool the Fed is pretending will have an effect is the daily overnight reverse repo operations. While the typical daily operations of $100-150 billion are small relative to excess reserves, the Fed also expects that by paying the banks more to switch their deposits at the Fed from regular reserve deposit accounts to overnight RRP accounts that this will somehow reduce the amount of cash and lendable funds in the system. The Fed is attempting to compound the illusion by augmenting the overnight operations with quarter end window dressing term operations lasting a week or two. At the end of the third quarter outstanding term repos briefly soared to $440 billion as the banks and money market funds opted to show that they were holding repos from the Fed on their books at the end of the quarter.

Reverse Repos Outstanding - Click to enlarge

That isn’t merely tantamount to fraud, it is fraud. Those term RRPs existed purely for the purpose of window dressing. They come for a few days at the end of the quarter and then they’re gone. The question is, “Who’s kidding whom?” The Fed isn’t fooling anyone except itself. To borrow a phrase from Blazing Saddles, the Fed is just jerking off.

$178 billion of overnight RRPs were outstanding at a rate of 25 bp on December 23. Amounts outstanding over the past week ranged from $102 billion to $186 billion which is just a little higher than in the weeks before the rate increase. Meanwhile there have been two quarter end term repo operations. Guess what. No takers. None. Zero zilch nada. Hey Janet! What up wid dat?

The banks don’t need reserves to make loans, so these games the Fed is playing will have no effect whatsoever on bank lending.

This whole sham show is insane, but for this week at least, some parts of the market are acting out as if they believe the Fed. In the first week after the increase, the commercial paper market rates rose. The rate on overnight AA financial company paper was 30 bp, which was only 6 bp below the sham Fed Funds rate.

But are the commercial paper rates any more a true representation of the market than the Fed Funds rate? The overnight AA financial company rate was based on 27 reported trades. Not 27 hundred trades. 27 trades total.

AA Financial CP Number of Trades - Click to enlarge

That’s only 98% less than the 800 to 1,200 daily trades typically reported before the financial crisis. As nonbank financial institutions lost trust in one another in 2007, that number declined to around 200-300 per day. Then once the Fed began to pump excess reserves into the system the market dried up completely. The rates reported in the short term money markets are meaningless because there is no short term money market. The system is so awash in funds that the advice of Shakespeare’s Polonius the fool, “Neither borrower nor lender be,” is a perfect fit for the scene.

The T-bill market is still active, and the results there show that the Fed really has less control than they pretend to have. The 4 week T-bill hit 26 bp on the day the Fed announced the rate increase. That was hardly an increase. They were trading at 22 bp 2 weeks before. Then after the “rate hike” the 4 week bill traded down to a rate of 13 bp on December 21. It was back to 19 bp on Wednesday December 23. The 13 week bill rate hit 31 bp after the announcement and is now back to 20 bp. These are clear signs that the Fed does not control money rates where real markets exist.

One Month T-Bill Rate- Click to enlarge

Finally, let’s take another look at that Fed Funds rate. Wouldn’t you be curious to know the actual volume of Fed Funds trading that establishes this rate that is supposedly so important to the market. Yeah, right. Me too. So I went looking for it.

Guess what.

IT… DOES… NOT… EXIST.

That’s right. It doesn’t exist. You don’t believe me? You know that Bloomberg has a stat on every investment and economic instrument know to mankind right? Here’s how Bloomberg’s chart of Fed Funds looks.

Fed Funds on Bloomberg

The Fed Funds rate reported by Bloomberg includes a trading volume of zero. That’s not just today. It’s every day. If there are real Fed Funds trades, nobody has any idea how many trades there are, how large they are, and even whether they represent unrelated counterparties.

Wall Street and the media simply accept on faith that the reported number is based on real trades using real money, between arm’s length counterparties. But the Fed makes no data public to support that. The bottom line is that we have no idea what the reported Fed Funds rate actually represents.

Is it real? Or is it Fed-o-rex?

 

Macroliquidity Pro Trader weekly subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format.

The monthly report for MacroLiquidity Investor Monthly subscribers is published around the the turn of the month. Click here for the most recent monthly updates of this report.

You can now subscribe to this report as part of the Macroliquidity Pro Trader Weekly or Macroliquidity Investor Monthly on a standalone monthly or weekly basis.

Enter your email address in the form to receive email notification when Macroliquidity reports are posted. Select the reports for which you want to be notified from the list in the form.

Not yet a subscriber? Try the Fed Money and Liquidity Pro risk free for 90 days. If, within that time, you find that the information does not meet your expectations, just cancel, request a refund, and your payment will be refunded immediately. Start your risk free subscription now and get instant access.

The post The Fed’s Rate Hike Hoax- There Is No Short Term Money Market was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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If This Is A Bear Market, This Echo Needs To Stop Now http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2015/12/if/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2015/12/if/#respond Wed, 16 Dec 2015 22:38:09 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=276706 The 2011 market meme is still going strong. It has reached a point where the similarities between the current market and 2011 must now break if this is indeed a bear market. Especially worrisome for bears is that this looks more and more like a right on time 4 year cycle low. I examine what the cycle…

The post If This Is A Bear Market, This Echo Needs To Stop Now was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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The 2011 market meme is still going strong. It has reached a point where the similarities between the current market and 2011 must now break if this is indeed a bear market. Especially worrisome for bears is that this looks more and more like a right on time 4 year cycle low.

The 4 Year Cycle Echo - Click to enlarge

I examine what the cycle indicators are telling us about these similarities in the Pro Trader Market Update.

The post If This Is A Bear Market, This Echo Needs To Stop Now was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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