Charts

Initial Claims On Trend, But Way Behind Stock Prices

Stock Prices Look Extended Vs. Unemployment Claims - Click to enlarge

Today’s report on first time unemployment claims was a nothing-burger. It was a worse report than usual for this week of the year, but the year to year change was right in line. Whether this week’s poor showing versus the same week last year and the 10 year average is a canary in the coal…

Employment Data Headlines Were Wrong for January, But Bleak Employment Situation Remains

Full Time Employment Ratio - Click to enlarge

Misleading Employment Data Can Still Sometimes Lead To Correct Conclusion Yes, we know that the nonfarm payrolls headline number for January was wrong, but those who concluded that job growth is weak are correct. It just was not as weak in January as they thought. The real problem, and tragedy, lies in the fact that…

Nonfarm Payrolls Headline Number Misleads Again

Nonfarm Payrolls Chart - Click to enlarge

Nonfarm Payrolls Bogus Data The nonfarm payrolls headline number for January was hogwash, thanks to a defective seasonal adjustment (SA) factor.  Here’s how the Wall Street Journal treated the news. The WSJ pointed out that “Economists had expected a gain of 189,000 jobs…” so this was a huge miss. The Journal’s reporter added that, “December…

Initial Jobless Claims Drop at 8.5% Annual Rate

Initial Unemployment Claims - Click to enlarge

The headline number for seasonally finagled initial unemployment claims for the week ended February 1 were about where Wall Street economists expected. The actual numbers were also in line with the average performance for the last week of January. The Department of Labor reports the actual, NSA data, but the mainstream media ignores it. Here’s what the DOL…

Pending Home Sales Chart – Housing Inflation Despite Weak Sales As Inventories Stay Tight

houseinvsales

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) number for December fell by 8.7%, crushing clueless Wall Street economists whose consensus guess was for a decline of 0.2%. The headline number is a seasonally adjusted representation of the trend, and may or may not reflect actual market conditions at the time. Actual…

Initial Unemployment Claims Chart In Danger Zone

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Initial unemployment claims for the week ended January 25 were worse than Wall Street economists expected based on the seasonally adjusted headline number. The actual number of initial claims, not seasonally adjusted, for this week of January was 354,604, a drop of 59,700 from the prior week. The average decline for the fourth week of…