Economics

7 Year Trend of Falling Unemployment Claims Slows

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

First time claims for unemployment compensation continued their string of record lows for the same week of the year but the improvement in the weekly number slowed radically last week in what could be the first sign of trend change. The actual number, not subject to any seasonal hocus pocus was 384,481. That was 2,668 claims per million…

7 Astounding Charts Show How Badly The Fed Failed The Housing Market

ZIRP and QE Haven't Helped Median Households Buy Houses

For generations, single family housing development was a driver of US economic growth. Today, there is no single family housing industry to speak of. These 7 charts derived from this week’s release of new house sales data from the Census Bureau illustrates just how bad things are. New house sales fell versus September 2015 and remain…

Here Are Three Observations on Housing That Show There’s No Way Out

September Housing Starts- Click to enlarge

The Fed has created permanent housing crisis from which there is no escape. Total US housing starts peaked in 1972. This chart shows actual (not seasonally manipulated) total starts, multifamily starts, and single family starts for each September since then. Click here to view chart if reading in email. I have 3 observations. The recovery in…

Inflation Headlines Vs. Reality Reveals Outright Government Fraud

Core CPI Vs. Reality - Click to enlarge

The US Government and the Fed measure inflation in a way that is tantamount to reverse Robin Hood theft. Government measures cheat savers and particularly senior citizens while subsidizing the wealthiest big banks and leveraged speculators. They do so by giving the Fed an excuse to perpetuate the ZIRP. The headlines screeched this morning that consumer prices…

Unemployment Claims Still Sailing Along At Record Lows, Withholding Taxes Down Slightly in Q3

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change

Employers continue to ignore the signals sent by the recent stock market fracture. They are still hoarding their low cost labor forces at a record rate, exceeding that of any past bubble in history. First time claims for unemployment compensation continued their string of record lows for the same week of the year. The actual number, not subject…

Here’s Why the Facts Underpinning Bullish New Home Sales Headlines Aren’t So Bullish

Thanks Fed for Helping The Average Guy

Yesterday’s new home sales report from the Census Bureau triggered an ebullient response. Big media used words like “surge; soar; rise sharply; above expectations” to describe it. The Wall Street Journal said, “Sales of new, single-family homes rose by 5.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 552,000.” The headline number they reported reflected the monthly seasonal adjustment and…

Tone Deaf Employers Continue To Ignore Warnings in Job Hoarding Bubble

Initial Claims and Stock Prices

First time claims for unemployment compensation continued their string of record lows for the same week of the year. The actual number, not subject to any seasonal hocus pocus was 220,000 (rounded). That was just 1,548 claims per million employed workers last week. That compares with 1,817 per million in the same week of 2007 just as the housing…

Initial Claims In Blowoff Move Set 41 Year Record Low

Initial Claims and Stock Prices

First time claims for unemployment compensation hit a 41 year record low last week at just over 198,000. This was the actual number, not subject to any seasonal hocus pocus. 41 years ago the labor force was only 60% as large as it is today, so on a workforce size adjusted basis this number was even more extreme.…