A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Pretzel Logic E Wave Analysis and Market Commentary
SPX, NASCRACK, RUT, and USD Updates: This Rally Was No Surprise…
A quick reminder: if you haven't met the requirements for registration at the new forum, your account will, unfortunately (or maybe fortunately, lol) not be approved. Please read this thread carefully when registering. ...
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SPX Update: Key Overlap at 1292 Leaves the Bulls Feeling "Facebooked"
Before I get into the update:
Please be aware that the real-time intraday and after-hours trading discussion section has moved.
We're in the process of transitioning to a new board, and while it's still a work in progress (I started ...
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SPX Update: 81 Points of Profit Captured as the Market Reaches Critical Support
Yesterday was another victory for bears, and the market is now in a price zone that crosses numerous long-term support levels. It's also sufficiently oversold that it's advisable to watch for a potential bounce.&nbs...
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SPX, RUT, and VIX Updates: Market Placed on Crash Watch
A person is placed on suicide watch when he or she displays certain self-destructive patterns and behaviors. Likewise, a market is placed on crash watch when it displays certain destructive patterns and behaviors. As I'...
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This Decline Isn’t a Selling Panic, It’s a Buying Strike
A few signals are finally starting to reach oversold levels, but there's nothing to mark the extreme levels normally associated with more meaningful bottoms.
As I was looking at the charts earlier, particularly the down volume to up volum...
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SPX Update: As the Market Grinds Lower, Complacency Abounds
Yesterday, both counts expected more downside, which the market provided. The picture has clarified just a little bit, and, as I see it, there are two main options for the short-term resolution.
What's interesting about this market is that it's...
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SPX and INDU Updates: It’s Painfully Obvious What’s Going to Happen Next… or is it?
The very short-term charts are still a mess. Some personalities feel that an analyst should be able to have a strong opinion on the market at all times -- unfortunately, out here in the real world, that's simply not realistic...
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SPX Update: Things Aren’t as Bad as You Think! They’re Worse.
Before I get into the charts, indulge me a bit of a rant regarding some of the systemic fundamental problems facing the world.
By now, everyone (with the possible exception of those guys who live under rocks in the Geico commercials) ...
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SPX Update: 1344 Reversal Target Hit, Time for the Expected Relief Rally
There's not much to add from the past few days. Yesterday played to perfection, and I simply can't predict the market any better than that. I won't always hit things that perfectly, so please forgive me when I whiff on one!
Anywa...
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SPX, VIX, Nasdaq, Chevron: Yesterday’s Targets Hit, but Bulls are Probably in for More Pain
My expectation heading into yesterday was for strong downward movement, followed by a possible bounce, which is exactly what happened. All my first-tier targets across stock indices were reached, with the S&P 500 actually break...
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SPX, DAX, COMPQ, CVX Updates: Bulls Might Have a Little Trick Up Their Sleeves
There really isn't much change from yesterday's predictions, however I do have a slightly "new" way of charting SPX which might be worth noting.
Yesterday, I warned that a larger fourth wave bounce might be in the cards, and it seems likely that we sa...
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SPX, Oil, RUT, INDU, US Dollar Updates: Market Entering Dangerous Waters
The market is entering dangerous waters, and there are several indices now at critical support levels. It appears likely that the market is in the early stages of an intermediate trend change.
It's been challenging lat...
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SPX and More Update: Bulls Walking a Fine Line
Range bound markets are so much fun! And by that I mean they can be a pain in the butt. One minute, everything looks bearish, the next it looks bullish, and the next it looks neutral. This is why it pays to realize that the majo...
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SPX and RUT Update: Know Your Limitations
When you use a system like Elliott Wave (or anything else), it's important to know what it can do and what it can't do. Range-bound markets, especially near potential turning points, are particularly brutal on most forms of technical analysis.&n...
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SPX and INDU Updates: Bulls Win Again
Recently it seems that virtually everytime there's a choice between a bearish count and a bullish count, the bullish count wins. This was once again the case yesterday, as the bulls did what they needed to in order to knockout the bear coun...
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SPX, COMPQ, Eur/USD Updates: Today Could be a Critical Day
Today could be a key day toward gaining more confidence in one of the two main counts, because -- as those of you who own digital watches already know -- today is the first of May. The first of any month is frequently bullish,...
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SPX, INDU, and Employment Updates: Looks Like the Shoe is on the Other Hand Now!
No one can deny that many indicators look bullish right now. The bears are rapidly running out of real estate, and the Dow in particular is within a stone's throw of making new highs.
However, the burden of proof is now on the bulls. ...
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SPX Update: Bears Need to Get ‘er Done, or Go Home
Yesterday's count expected further upside, which is what the market provided. At this stage, there's just not much to add. This remains one of the more challenging structures I've had to decipher in some time, but if the expanded ...
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SPX Update: Revenge of the Beard
This market remains a mess, though perhaps some semblance of order is beginning to emerge from the chaos. Way back on Friday the 13th, I suggested that the market would form some type of "double retracement" due to the extended fifth wave. ...
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SPX, COMPQ, and INDU Updates: Possible Reconciliation of Counts Across Markets
I've been trying to reconcile the counts across market, and may have found a solution tonight. Each market gives a bit different appearance, and readers know I've referred back to RUT several times, which argues that the next low (assuming ...
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SPX, RUT, COMPQ Updates: Bulls Running Out of Options
As I'm certain some of you read in the comments section, there was a death in my family yesterday, so I'm going to need to keep a bit lighter schedule through the remainder of the week. My thanks to those of you who have expressed ...
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SPX, INDU, NDX Updates: Trying to Make Sense of the Mess
The charts are an absolute disaster right now. I've looked at roughly 20 million charts this weekend, but there are so many possibilities, it simply becomes confusing to try and cover them all. This update was a whole lotta work for very li...
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SPX Update: Shortest Update Ever
Today's update is going to be very short and sweet, due to time constraints I ran into with some family issues.
There are two reasonable ways to view the most recent action, as shown on the chart below. The good news for bears is that the rally ...
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SPX, RUT, and CVX Updates: Additional Telling Signs in RUT?
Well, I've got good news and bad news. The bad news is that the short term structure is an absolute mess. The good news is: I think I've found the key to figuring it all out over the next few days.
"How?" I can hear you ask incredulously, ...
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SPX, RUT, and INDU Update: Trying to Reconcile the Contradictions…
Yesterday's alternate count came to pass, and hopefully readers heeded my warning regarding the red trendline and protected profits. There are certain things I take for granted as "common knowledge" and I sometimes fail to expand upon certain sta...
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SPX Update: A Dangerous Position for Both Sides of the Trade
Yesterday's action removed some short term options from the table, but has still left the pattern open to interpretation. It appears that I had Friday's decline labeled properly as an impulse wave, but that doesn't tell us with certainty whether ...
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SPX, RUT, Apple, and Beard Updates: Why I’m Not in the Same Camp as Most Wavers Right Now
Beard Update
Ever since this article, where I discussed my ground-breaking decision to venture into the beard-bearing biosphere of Ben Bernanke (by not shaving), I have received e-mails from anxious readers demanding beard updates ...
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SPX and RUT Update: Warnings that the Market Outlook May Be Changing
Yesterday the market reached the 1384 upside target -- and it also ruled out some possibilities, which is actually quite helpful. In fact, yesterday's charts are chock-full of new information I didn't have before -- ...
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SPX Update: Looks About Right So Far…
Tuesday held no surprises as the market did a ramp and camp, which fits the terms of the technical bounce discussed yesterday.
Toward the close, I wrestled a bit with the wave structure, but in the end decided it appeared a little ...
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SPX Update: Next Target Unchanged, but More Bearish Potential Exists
Yesterday's rally exceeded my target zone by 2 points, and has necessitated a slight shift in the wave degrees. The rally was probably a bit too large to be blue wave (4), and has thus indicated that it is most likely the higher degree&...
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