The Wall Street Examiner » Latest Business Headlines http://wallstreetexaminer.com Get the facts. Fri, 25 Jul 2014 01:46:40 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Market Serving Up Slop http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/07/market-serving-up-slop/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/07/market-serving-up-slop/#comments Mon, 21 Jul 2014 23:07:09 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=202702 While the broad market averages have yet to confirm a 6 month cycle top, the cycle screening measures continue to suggest that one is under way.

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The Next Really Big Move http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/07/the-next-really-big-move/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/07/the-next-really-big-move/#comments Wed, 16 Jul 2014 00:10:32 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=202357 The market is holding its cards close to the vest. Where will the next really big move (say 3%) go? Internal screening measures are leaning one way, anxious for the starter’s pistol. Will they have a false start, or be off to the races again?

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Cycle Screens Lag The Rally http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/07/cycle-screens-lag-the-rally/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/07/cycle-screens-lag-the-rally/#comments Thu, 10 Jul 2014 02:19:16 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=202039 Cycle screens did not confirm the market’s rally today. Is that just a matter of lag, or an important non-confirmation?

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Intermediate Cycle Projections Rise Again! http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/06/intermediate-cycle-projections-rise/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/06/intermediate-cycle-projections-rise/#comments Sat, 21 Jun 2014 13:37:49 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=200955 The market stayed on its track on Friday, with little change in the trend tracks of the broad market averages or their cycle indicators. Intermediate cycle projections rose. Here are the latest projections.

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Gold Clears Another Resistance Line and Projections Rise http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/06/gold-clears-another-resistance-line-projections-rise/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/06/gold-clears-another-resistance-line-projections-rise/#comments Thu, 19 Jun 2014 12:38:42 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=200793 Gold has cleared an intermediate downtrend line and is working toward the next resistance line at 1294. There’s a new 13 week cycle projection.

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The Fix Did Not Disappoint, But What About Follow Through? http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/06/fix-disappoint-follow/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/06/fix-disappoint-follow/#comments Thu, 19 Jun 2014 00:26:17 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=200773 The fix was in, and it did not disappoint. Now the question is follow through. This report lays out what to expect, and what to look out for.

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Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. In addition you get multiple time frame cyclical, regression channel, and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates, in essence, a roadmap to guide your trading, daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update.

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(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Stick a Fork in Those Manufacturing Renaissance Claims http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/06/whats-left-economy-stick-fork-manufacturing-renaissance-claims/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/06/whats-left-economy-stick-fork-manufacturing-renaissance-claims/#comments Wed, 11 Jun 2014 14:34:48 +0000 http://alantonelson.wordpress.com/?p=317 This is a syndicated repost courtesy of RealityChek. To view original, click here.

The Commerce Department just came out with new data that show the U.S. economy’s growth by industry through 2013.  One unavoidable conclusion?  Widespread claims by President Obama and others of a U.S. manufacturing renaissance are on life support — at best.

The sector’s inflation-adjusted growth during this feeble economic recovery has been spotty, and its total output and share of national output actually remained below pre-recession levels through 2013.  These new data show that U.S. domestic manufacturing needs a lot less renaissance hopium, and much smarter policy support from Washington – starting with trade policies that keep sending far too much valuable manufacturing production and far too many high-paying manufacturing jobs offshore.

Here are the highlights:

>U.S. domestic manufacturing actually outgrew the total economy in 2013 – 3.05 percent to 1.84 percent after inflation.  But the sector’s real annual growth rates since the recovery technically began in mid-2009 have been unimpressive:  6.77 percent in 2010, 0.71 percent in 2011, 1.85 percent in 2012, and that 3.05 percent in 2013.

>This growth has boosted U.S. manufacturing’s share of real GDP from 11.99 percent in 2009 (when the recovery technically began) to 12.49 percent in 2013.

>Yet domestic manufacturing’s share of real GDP remains below its level in 2007.  In that last pre-recession year, when no knowledgeable observers hailed the health of U.S. domestic manufacturing, the sector accounted for 13.09 percent of real GDP.

>Domestic manufacturing’s actual inflation-adjusted output also remained below pre-recession levels through 2013.  In 2007, the sector produced $1.941 trillion worth of goods after inflation.  In 2013, six years later, its real production had only recovered to $1.940 trillion.

>Even this feeble manufacturing growth is likely overstated, as considerable academic research indicates that official data have over-counted real output in information technology hardware sectors because they under-estimate deflation in these industries.

Manufacturing production levels are even more important to examine than manufacturing job levels – if only because a genuine recovery in manufacturing employment is overwhelmingly dependent on much faster growth in manufacturing output.  Domestic industry clearly achieved an impressive bounce-back from a sharp recessionary downturn.  But the new 2013 data add to the voluminous evidence (which includes worsening trade deficits and continuing loss of U.S markets to imports) showing that this comeback has been overwhelmingly cyclical – and that domestic industry still suffers from major, structural and competitive weaknesses.

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Dang, The Wine Bubble Implodes (It’s China’s Fault) http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/06/dang-wine-bubble-implodes-chinas-fault/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/06/dang-wine-bubble-implodes-chinas-fault/#comments Tue, 03 Jun 2014 12:16:53 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=199843 This is a syndicated repost originally published at Testosterone Pit

I confess: I’m biased. I love wine – almost as much as I love craft brews. I get hung up on Californian wines; they are awesome and grow in my back yard, so to speak. Actually, I lovedrinking wine, not keeping it in a refrigerated vault as an asset class. So I don’t get the gut-wrenching feeling that investors get who didn’t sell in time and then ride out the implosion of a bubble. And their guts are being wrenched.

Blame China and central banks. Wine as an asset class became airborne during the pre-Olympics China bubble when rich Chinese began plowing their money into it. From the summer of 2005 through the Beijing Olympics in 2008, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 index – the “fine wine industry’s leading benchmark” – skyrocketed 152%. But in the four months after the Lehman Moment, the index plunged 22%.

Frazzled by the seizing wine market, the Fed and other besotted central banks began to douse certain layers of the world with free money so that Chinese wine buyers would re-indulge in the game. It worked. By July 2011, the index had soared 76% to 365. The peak of the wine bubble. Then all heck broke lose.

The monthly Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 is based on “100 of the most sought-after fine wines for which there is a strong secondary market,” mostly Bordeaux, “a reflection of the overall market,” along with some wines from Burgundy, the Rhone, Champagne, and Italy (list). And these are, or were, precisely the high-profile brands that Chinese investors, many of whom didn’t even drink wine, had the hots for.

So in May, the index dropped another 1.4% to 243, down 33.4% from its peak. It’s back where it was in June 2007. And even at that level, it seems to be supported only by thin mountain air.

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 index of the “most heavily traded commodities in the fine wine market,” as Liv-ex calls them – the last 10 physical vintages of the Bordeaux First Growths, Haut Brion, Lafite Rothschild, Latour, Margaux, and Mouton Rothschild – soared and then plunged even more.

My data from Liv-ex only goes back to February 2010, when the wine bubble had already done most of the blooming. From there, it soared another 63.4% to 446 on July 28, 2011. As I’m writing this, on June 2, it closed at 274, down 38.6% from its peak. A relentless three-year gut-wrench.

Investors should have been drinking their investments instead. But in China, that’s exactly what they fear the most. Not only because it would destroy their investment, but also because that’s when they’d find out that their cherished but plunging investment stored in their refrigerated vault might be counterfeit.

 Read the rest of the post at Testosterone Pit.

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Market May Be Rocky Now, But Bullwinkle Is Right There As Always http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/06/market-may-rocky-now-bullwinkle-right-always/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/06/market-may-rocky-now-bullwinkle-right-always/#comments Tue, 03 Jun 2014 02:20:03 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=199826 Cycle screening measures were slightly weaker on Monday, suggesting the possibility of a minor pullback but not more than that yet.

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They Call This A Housing Recovery? http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/05/call-housing-recovery/ http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/05/call-housing-recovery/#comments Mon, 19 May 2014 01:10:05 +0000 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=199140

By now you have heard about Friday’s blockbuster housing starts numbers that blew out conomists’ expectations. Here’s the actual, not seasonally adjusted data.

Total starts in April came in at 94,900. That was the strongest April performance since the top of the housing bubble. April starts have risen 123% from the April 2009 low.

Housing Starts Booming? Click to enlarge

Housing Starts Booming? Click to enlarge

That sounds impressive, but 123% of almost nothing isn’t much. Percentages don’t mean much in this market. The whole numbers are more illustrative. Total starts have soared by that percentage because an abominable total of only 42,500 units were built in April 2009. Compare that with the nearly 185,000 units built in April 2005 at the peak of the housing bubble. The current level of starts is just over half that number.

The gain in single family starts was less robust, hitting 60,100. That was 8.7% better than last April’s 55,300 units and it’s up a booming 72% from the 2009 low. But that’s only an increase of 25,000 from the tiny number of starts in April 2009, 35,000. Compare the current number with April 2006 when 135,000 units were started.

Housing Booming? Not Quite- Click to enlarge

Housing Booming? Not Quite- Click to enlarge

So is the housing market really booming? It’s all a matter of perspective. Total starts are still down 49% from the April 2005 level. Single family starts are still down a whopping 60% from the extremes of the bubble in April 2005 (when I put my house up for auction and successfully sold it in 2 weeks).

And the “recovery,” such as it is, may be about to run into real trouble. It’s about supply and demand. They have been growing in tandem, but not this month.  In March single family sales fell, but starts rose sharply in both March and April. The divergence creates a record oversupply in the single family market.

Housing Supply Rising, Demand Fell - Click to Enlarge

Housing Supply Rising, Demand Fell – Click to Enlarge

The last time sales fell while starts were still rising was in 1986, at the onset of a six year housing recession that few recall because the more recent one was so much worse. But those of us who were working in the housing industry then certainly remember it. It was a disaster. Homebuilders were dropping like flies as sales dried up and prices fell.

Maybe the March sales downtick was an aberration due to the weather, as many have claimed. We’ll find out next week when the Commerce Department releases April new home sales data. That  is based on current contracts at the time of the survey in mid April. It is therefore a much more timely measure of housing market health than existing home sales which are based on closed sales and are released with a lag of nearly two months. By the time the data is released, it’s stale.

So I’ll be on the lookout for the new homes sales data. If the March decline was not an aberration and sales do not rebound, the housing industry could be ready to tank again.

Not that it ever recovered. New home sales and starts are still approximately 30% below where they were at the bottom of the 1986-92 housing recession. And they call this recovery?

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