Today's Markets

Chart showing commodity rail shipments. So far this year this can’t barely keep pace with last year, and is far below 2006-2008 levels.  Is this all that two years of 10% annual deficits to GDP is worth?Source: Calculated RiskI have posted at length about the factors that will lead to the next rout of...
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Yesterday rumors floated concerning more restrictions on short selling from Gumnut owned securities which in turn led to a further blowoff in cats, dogs and junk stocks in general. This phase reminds me a lot of late 2007- early 2008, when constant rumormongering was in play on how the entire S&P 500 could be...
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The first real sign of an approaching cycle high is usually an increase in the number of new sell signals. That has not happened yet in any time frame. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that...
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I just want to remind our listeners that there will be no podcast this week. We will be back next Wednesday.
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There is evidence aplenty that Gumnut is driving forward with a partial exit strategy on its endless bailouts. �A key point man on this seems to be Barney Frank, who last week fired a trial-balloon volley on the implied Gumnut�guarantee of the GSEs. �He starts the new week off by delivering a letter (apparently...
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Broadening strength in 6 month cycle indications is carrying shorter cycles along with the tide. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The market chainsawed through a cluster of resistance lines on Friday, but the really big one lies just overhead. All signs but one point to that one being chewed up as well. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty...
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My attempt now is to put together a navigation survival guide that I will call the Titanic play. Along with the China axiom (that their economy always grows briskly), we have the axiom that Gumnuts, and especially big ones, are unsinkable and can borrow indefinitely at marginal cost and thereby €œstimulate€ (in reality...
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Further signs of a blow off in maladjustments continues to build.  The Baltic Freight Index has risen 20% in six days and has hit 3242.  This leaves little doubt that a big bagunca (mess) will be left in its wake.  At the beginning of 2010, the market was saddled with orders for 1,400 new...
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Here’s a roadmap on how the battle is likely to go, and what the final outcome should be. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give...
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China has a monetary meeting on March 5th. Are they going to do anything about this?A look at credit default insurance spreads on four large US States, Why would these have actually improved, these deficits and shortfalls are worse:A glance at the Euro shows that the race to the bottom is only slightly being...
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Northwestern professor Victor Shih has zeroed in on China’s local and provisional governments to evaluate debt levels. Once again, the transparency offered is poor, but his study concludes that China’s overall government debt is headed to debt trap levels of 96% over the next year.  The tenor of this and other reports looks alot like what happened in...
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Cycle based stock screening data tilted to the buy side yesterday. The strengthening in new short term signals would normally suggest that short term cycles are getting ready to turn up, but there are counterarguments. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free...
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Russ Winter and Lee Adler talks about signs that the financial excesses and debt ratios are as bad as the world’s worst offenders. We look at the reasons the market is holding up so well, and discuss when that will end and why. Lee reviews the short term, intermediate and long term outlook from...
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One thing to keep an eye on is the strengthening of the 13 week cycle status indications as they close in on 90% on the buy side. At the same time, 6 month cycle status is barely at the neutral line. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers)....
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China’s holding of Treasuries goes parabolic. Part of this must be a back door deal to swap agencies for Treasuries with the Fed.  Two elements of this are in question. One, China no longer has a large trade surplus to recycle, and secondly the Fed’s extreme purchases of mortgage securities is winding down.  The...
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Cycle based stock screening data was stronger in all but one time frame on Monday as the 13 week cycle up phase got a second wind. The 6-7 week cycle, which is due to top out at any time, was an exception. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition...
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PBOC mucky muck Zhu Min chimes in on what he considers a major risk,“To me, the big risk this year is the dollar carry trade,” he said.  â€œIt is a massive issue. Estimates are that the dollar carry trade is $1,500bn – which is much bigger than Japan’s carry trade was.”Arguably the Euro has now...
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Even though the 13 week cycle should be early in a down phase time wise, and the 6 month cycle should be bottoming, there has not been enough upside momentum to get these two cycles moving up in absolute terms in most stocks. Click here to download complete report in pdf format...
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Big story: Extend and pretend maladjusted China squeezes its export sector with  Gumnut stimulus. After finding their butts fired last year, now workers have no interest in going back to their old exporter employers even with raises.  What a merry go round, and what way to run an economy. Higher prices and inflation for...
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Don’t look now but California’s stale extend and pretend Ponzi games may be coming to a head: delayed $2 billion GO sale, and delayed payments.The amount of new Treasury demand coming over the next month is simply put,  punishing . With the return of TBAC needs,  the Treasury closing in on $1/2 trillion of...
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The net aggregate differential between buy and sell side indications slipped from +270 to +148 on Wednesday, down from a high of +853 on Monday. Anything above -300 would keep the indicator in an uptrend. A drop below that should be accompanied by a strong price response, given the current setups on the market...
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New home sales are now scraping at generational lows and are apparently unable to compete with existing home sales in any meaningful way.  Besides weak demand, another reason affecting this is competition with a large supply of near-new houses built in 2003-2008 still on the market.  Why can’t the new home market compete on...
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Cycle based stock screening data headed south on Wednesday, bucking the market averages. Most of the time when that happens, the market follows the direction of the screens on the next day. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty...
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Russ Winter and Lee Adler unspin the ConCon data, the Lying  Economic Indicators, the  Case Chiller, new house sales, and the revival of a dangerous Treasury borrowing program. Also we debate homebuilder economics, and Russ talks about the problem with inventories, and the FDIC. Not a subscriber? Click here to hear a free...
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Cycle based stock screening data weakened across the board on Tuesday. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. ...
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Today’s blog follows up by focusing on what I think is another Achilles heels for China: water and food.  Before embarking on this, allow me to draw your attention once again to the Bloomberg article on Chinese mal-investment, especially the last paragraph quoting Mark Mobuis:Still, even Mobius says investors have to be wary. He...
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It’s odd the way the players pay attention to some numbers and not others. There’s no reason why the market should have been surprised by the ConCon.  ABC News does a comprehensive consumer confidence survey weekly that always foreshadows the ConCon. Last Tuesday ABC had this to say:
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Cycle based stock screening data weakened on Monday, with 8 of the 9 measures losing ground. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full...
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