The bottom dropped out on the open on Monday, but the averages opened right at support and reversed from there, stairstepping higher all day. Critical support in the 1340 area held, but other signs suggest that the bears have their best chance to take control over the next 4 weeks.
Juxtaposed cycles are leaving the market susceptible to news noise. A 13 week cycle top is due, while longer cycles all appear to be working at cross purposes.
Technical indicators edged higher along with the market averages on Thursday. There was no change in the 13 week cycle price projection. The 6-7 week cycle projection rose. An extension of the move from here would suggest that the 10-12 month cycle wave was developing a positive slope.
The market trundled higher through a significant resistance level on Wednesday, and also broke out of a triangle. Such breakouts often signal big moves. The top end of the 13 week cycle projection range rose to 1405.
The technical indicators continue confirm the choppy uptrend and a new 6-7 week cycle projection points to a higher level that the existing 13 week cycle projection.
The Professional Edition Fed Report will be posted later tonight. The market update will be posted on Wednesday morning at approximately 8:30 AM, NY Time.
One lone cycle projection points to higher levels as the market’s pullback on Monday did no technical damage.
Friday’s rally gives the bulls the ball again but the indicator picture remains a mixed bag. Here’s what to look for.
Thursday, July 12 – The market broke support at 1340, but that’s only a partial victory for bears. There’s a key trend channel line that still must be broken. This report shows the key parameters and points toward the likely outcomes.
The market again failed to break support at 1340. That remains a critical level, along with the low 1320s. Bears need to break both levels to take control.